John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 With multiple model runs of potential snow coming Sunday evening into Monday for the region, I figured I'd go ahead and start a thread. We have several potential storms to track in this period and these threads will help keep them centralized and separate. The last 24-36 hours of model runs have been showing a good potential for a snow event in Tennessee or Southern Kentucky. A frontal boundry will pass the area bringing rain and behind it, colder air will filter into the region. This cold front will stall out somewhere to our South and East. A wave of Low Pressure will form and ride along the front. As of now the track looks to go from Southern Alabama into Central or North Georgia. According to how far the front sags is how far south air cold enough for frozen precip will make it. The GFS this morning puts it very close to the KY/TN border, while the NAM is slightly further south. The rain snow line will waffle around for the next several days. On the change over line there is a high potential for both sleet and freezing rain to occur. The HPC updated their day 3 graphic to this. The 06z NAM snowfall map shows the extreme potential of the event for someone, The HPC official stance as of now is for Kentucky to be in the better area for snow, but for Ice in this area. SUN NIGHT...HEAVIER SNOWS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EASTACROSS KY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICINGPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 HPC graphic for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thanks for starting the thread John and for posting the overnight run down. Here is the 0z GGEM snow total for the event: Sleet total: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z Euro snow total (probably just an indication of where the frozen precip will be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Another view of the 6z NAM total snow: 6z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z Euro snow total (probably just an indication of where the frozen precip will be) HPC didn't like either the Euro or the GFS for this event as of their morning disco. WHILE THE MODELS ARE TRENDINGTOWARD A DEEPER SYSTEM...DID NOT GIVE STRONG WEIGHTING TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE OTHER HAND...DID NOT FOLLOW THE GFS EITHER...WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO SUPPRESSED WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Once we get within 48 hours the RGEM will be useful. It breaks precip type down into snow, sleet, and freezing rain. It did well on the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM has a fantastic track. Pops a low around southern LA and tracks it into South/Central Georgia. Hopefully the cold air can sag a bit more to the south for us all. The GGEM precip type maps generally show all but the far Eastern Valley having sleet/snow/freezing rain issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HPC didn't like either the Euro or the GFS for this event as of their morning disco. They are going by the UKMet because it was to amped?That looks more amped than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 They are going by the UKMet because it was to amped?That looks more amped than the Euro I suspect they are going with a blend, with less weight on the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z 4k NAM: Edit: I was mistaken, that is the regular NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The different solutions are literally down to the depth of the cold in a given area. Very good agreement on the storm and pretty good agreement on the track. Be rooting on the front to sink a little further and the warm nose to not haunt you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Can't say this is a good look for my corner. If anything this area will get more ice than snow. I'm thinking its likely to be just rain down here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM at 78 and 84. These maps will change when the 12z updates. This is normally an excellent winter weather set up/track for Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 1016 is not much of a low. Give me that track with something around 990 and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're not hardly into SREF range yet, but the plumes across TN are showing a mix of precip types. Low probabilities on the frozen ones for now, just worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 1016 is not much of a low. Give me that track with something around 990 and we are in business. If it's 990 down there, it'd be throwing up a warm nose into northern Kentucky. Weak lows throw up lots of moisture but less warmth. The NAM has the low with similar strength and drops .75-1.25 in a 12 hour period from hr 66 to 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is this Sunday night or Monday night or?? MRX is no help though Memphis and Nashville are both discussing it. At this time, is Knoxville in the ice zone? If so, I'm glad to be in the low-snow side of the county. I guess I see my answer since Nashville is discussing Sun night into Mon morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Read slower and it's right on John's map. Sorry! Make it snow guys, I don't like ice. I busted my butt in that mess before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z meteograms show the following:NashvilleNAM 4.3 inches of snow 11:1 ratioGFS 1.5 inches of snow 11:1 ratio, a little freezing rain before thatMemphisNAM 1.7 inches of snow 11:1 ratio, tenth of an inch of freezing rain, a few sleet pelletsGFS 3.1 inches of snow 11:1 ratio, 0.22 inches of freezing rain, a few sleet pelletsKnoxvilleNAM 1.8 inches of snow 11:1 ratioGFS 0.27 inches of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Do you have KTRI Stove? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Do you have KTRI Stove? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk WHAT IS THIS I DON'T EVEN.... NAM shows TRI with a foot! I use Iowa State, please check the link to make sure my eyeballs aren't cloudy this morning.... http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=ktri&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&cobb=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This run looks better on the NAM,so far Edit:Blah,spoke to soon it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's looks worse for snow. Probably a stout mix across the state though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good hit for the E,finds a way to screw the middle once again,never fails for us..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z NAM total snow (actual precip type is anyone's guess). Gonna take quite a few more NAM runs before I buy into anything it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM has serious dry air issues between 850 and 925 mb - virga storm. That seems unlikely given this set up, and the fact that we're not in the NAM's wheelhouse (if the NAM even has a wheelhouse) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good hit for the E,finds a way to screw the middle once again,never fails for us..lol Too dry at the surface. It looked good at hour 57 then it went crazy with the dry air after that (for middle TN). I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If you simply look at the features on the playing field for this event, I would think middle TN is very much alive or in the game, regardless of what the surface shows at this point. MANY snows in the past have had a 1030ish high in Missouri and a weak low reflection near the gulf in southern Louisana moving ENE from there. Northeast or ENE winds will really help here I would think. I think the overrunning should blossom nicely with this one in middle TN, and I don't see the "gap" that the NAM and GFS have shown at the surface happening. Check out the NAM at 12z's 700mb omega maps and the 500 mb maps. Dewpoints are near 30ish for the duration of the event in most places. Most of what I see looks pretty good actually. Time always sorts these things out, but at least it's "trackable". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Too dry at the surface. It looked good at hour 57 then it went crazy with the dry air after that (for middle TN). I don't buy it. Orographic though i'd buy it.They can make a flizzard for Nashville into a blizzard for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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