Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I will admit that even in those epic winters (2010-11 is Detroits 5th snowiest and 2007-08 Detroits 4th snowiest winter on record) we had a few misses, but also plenty of surprises. In particularly 2007-08, it was the inevitable NW trend that gave us several screwjobs and several surprises. This winter, SO FAR at least, we just arent missing. The short term models spit out X amount of qpf, and we get that or more. Not with big 12+ events IN THE CITY. I think you know that is what he is referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 meh.. I have done very well but with Detroit it depends where. The city itself? No.. Ofcourse like there where you are Detroit is not in a favored climo spot for big time snow events either. Probably one of the last city's in this sub forum not to see a 12.5+ event going back to 1974. They have been relentlessly teased with the big event even this winter. Speaking of... March 08 was modeled very well a bit of ways out. I know PD II wasn't though with it's last minute shift nw that ended up being needed for a change. Good luck down that way. Wait...Im confused...Buckeye made a very valid point that this winter when a storm pegs Detroit it doesnt miss, which is true. Not thinking he is talking 12.5"+, just that when a storm pegs us it hits. I dont really know if anyone can expect that much from Feb 4/5? Feb 8/9 stay tuned though. And I also disagree about being relentlessly teased this winter...we have not had a single storm underperform here. We were the jackpot Dec 14th & Dec 31-Jan 2, so the closest to a tease would be Jan 5/6 as there were 12"+ totals NW of DTW...but DTW still got the higher end of what they expected, they just didnt get the stalled out front pre-storm that hit NW of town which in the end made there be a swath of 12-17" (if it hit here, we would probably hear it was tainted because almost half was from the front pre-storm ). Actually, if you REALLY want to get technical, for a few hours that evening DTW area got heavier snowfall than areas in the sweet spot for that storm did, its just we got barely an inch from the front pre-storm while areas to our NW got 5-7". Im actually a bit amused by the whole thing this winter, because there has been SO little to actually complain about, the usual complainers are grasping for more straws than they usually need to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah I think it was in the NYC forum. It was about time, frankly. That is a huge no no. Amazed me he got away with it for so long. One thing to complain here in our own subforum but doing so in another ( especially i-95 where most of staff lives who is aso not as lenient about that stuff ) is really asking for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That is a huge no no. Amazed me he got away with it for so long. One thing to complain here in our own subforum but doing so in another ( especially i-95 where most of staff lives who is aso not as lenient about that stuff ) is really asking for it. He was an exceptionally annoying weenie. Good riddance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Not with big 12+ events IN THE CITY. I think you know that is what he is referring to. See my above post Buckeye said THIS SEASON. I know the 12.5"+ storm thing is the most beaten dead horse here, but everytime someone brings up anything about Detroit snowstorms, its like a magnetic force that leads all to not even read the original point, just "hey DTW proper hasnt hit 13"+ in a single storm since 1974". In 2007-08, DTW had 71.7" of snow but had the models 48 hours or less out come to fruition it probably would have been 100-120". This year, DTW has so far had 59.9" of snow and had the models 48 hours or less out come to fruition it would probably be more on the order of 40-50". Its a different beast this year. You know whats really funny...and Im TOTALLY reaching out there with this one. Scenario #1. Ill be conservative and say we get 4" of snow Wednesday. That would bring our depth to 16". Now, say Feb 8/9 produces a fantastic storm with great rates and even thundesnow, but its a quick-hitter, and DTW gets like 11.8". Snow depth would be like 26-28" with epic mountains...but all we would hear is about how once again DTW skirted a foot. Now...scenario #2. lets say all this craziness hadnt happened this year...and we had bare ground now. We get a storm tomorrow with decent but not spectacular rates (conditions nowhere near as tense as in scenario 1), and after about 20 hours DTW logs in a 14.1" storm. People would be raving over it....when the reality is scenario #1 and scenario #2 dont even compare in MY opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That is a huge no no. Amazed me he got away with it for so long. One thing to complain here in our own subforum but doing so in another ( especially i-95 where most of staff lives who is aso not as lenient about that stuff ) is really asking for it. There was something else that happened and that's all I'm going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wait...Im confused...Buckeye made a very valid point that this winter when a storm pegs Detroit it doesnt miss, which is true. Not thinking he is talking 12.5"+, just that when a storm pegs us it hits. I dont really know if anyone can expect that much from Feb 4/5? Feb 8/9 stay tuned though. And I also disagree about being relentlessly teased this winter...we have not had a single storm underperform here. We were the jackpot Dec 14th & Dec 31-Jan 2, so the closest to a tease would be Jan 5/6 as there were 12"+ totals NW of DTW...but DTW still got the higher end of what they expected, they just didnt get the stalled out front pre-storm that hit NW of town which in the end made there be a swath of 12-17" (if it hit here, we would probably hear it was tainted because almost half was from the front pre-storm ). Actually, if you REALLY want to get technical, for a few hours that evening DTW area got heavier snowfall than areas in the sweet spot for that storm did, its just we got barely an inch from the front pre-storm while areas to our NW got 5-7". Im actually a bit amused by the whole thing this winter, because there has been SO little to actually complain about, the usual complainers are grasping for more straws than they usually need to Um Jan 5th most certainly did if i recall right? This gets to the problem wrfeeck has. The big 12+ has failed miserably in the city itself ( models have teased it many times ) and even your backyard as far as that goes. Ofcourse you are not as into big events so yeah i imagine it does not bother you as much. You have accepted your climo for what it is. STILL as far as the big 12.5+ event goes i believe Detroit itself now has the longest running streak without one in this subforum of any of the big metro areas. I admit that would bug the crap out of me. Still nobody else should really be complaining about what someone else gets when it comes to stuff like this atleast. I have more then enough times see people get bent recently when Chicago or Michigan is under the gun. I went nearly 3 years without a 6+ event. I really don't wanna hear it about what is going on this winter here. I am very happy most is sharing in the wealth. Hopefully we can spread some of it to Toronto and Cyclone/Hawkeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 That is a huge no no. Amazed me he got away with it for so long. One thing to complain here in our own subforum but doing so in another ( especially i-95 where most of staff lives who is aso not as lenient about that stuff ) is really asking for it. I think I may have the skinny. I'll message you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wait...Im confused...Buckeye made a very valid point that this winter when a storm pegs Detroit it doesnt miss, which is true. Not thinking he is talking 12.5"+, just that when a storm pegs us it hits. I dont really know if anyone can expect that much from Feb 4/5? Feb 8/9 stay tuned though. And I also disagree about being relentlessly teased this winter...we have not had a single storm underperform here. We were the jackpot Dec 14th & Dec 31-Jan 2, so the closest to a tease would be Jan 5/6 as there were 12"+ totals NW of DTW...but DTW still got the higher end of what they expected, they just didnt get the stalled out front pre-storm that hit NW of town which in the end made there be a swath of 12-17" (if it hit here, we would probably hear it was tainted because almost half was from the front pre-storm ). Actually, if you REALLY want to get technical, for a few hours that evening DTW area got heavier snowfall than areas in the sweet spot for that storm did, its just we got barely an inch from the front pre-storm while areas to our NW got 5-7". Im actually a bit amused by the whole thing this winter, because there has been SO little to actually complain about, the usual complainers are grasping for more straws than they usually need to You're right Josh, the specific point I was making was the fact that you guys haven't been teased and had the rug pulled out on you whereas we have all winter. Jan 5th was the worst...and even now with the Wednesday system we are once again riding the line and it could be anything from a cold rain, to an icestorm, to our biggest seasonal snowfall....and each one of those is equally on the table. It gets a bit exhausting, you feel like every model run is HUGE. to clarify further....it seems the only questions for Chicago, GR, Detroit, and even LAF for the most part, have been how much snow, not whether it would be rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You're right Josh, the specific point I was making was the fact that you guys haven't been teased and had the rug pulled out on you whereas we have all winter. Jan 5th was the worst...and even now with the Wednesday system we are once again riding the line and it could be anything from a cold rain, to an icestorm, to our biggest seasonal snowfall....and each one of those is equally on the table. It gets a bit exhausting, you feel like every model run is HUGE. to clarify further....it seems the only questions for Chicago, GR, Detroit, and even LAF for the most part, have been how much snow, not whether it would be rain or snow. To clarify you have 34.8" on the season? What is your normal seasonal snowfall? Detroit has been rained on a few times and iced over once as well as far as that goes. Most on this subforum have now equaled or exceeded their seasonal normal. I can understand cyclone and Hawkeye complaining about what is happening all around them as they have not seen a 6+ event but the same cannot be said for most others here. Not sure about Toronto though. As Tim said ( i do agree ) nobody likes missing. So yeah that i can understand even in a big winter like this. I'll always complain about being missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 To clarify you have 34.8" on the season? What is your normal seasonal snowfall? Detroit has been rained on a few times and iced over once as well as far as that goes. Most on this subforum have now equaled or exceeded their seasonal normal. I can understand cyclone and Hawkeye complaining about what is happening all around them as they have not seen a 6+ event but the same cannot be said for most others here. Not sure about Toronto though. As Tim said ( i do agree ) nobody likes missing. So yeah that i can understand even in a big winter like this. I'll always complain about being missed. Hawkeye and Cyclone are the only members I know of with a multiyear 6"+ snowstorm drought. We had one in December and then 2 last year. Our bitching is mostly related to total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 To clarify you have 34.8" on the season? What is your normal seasonal snowfall? Detroit has been rained on a few times and iced over once as well as far as that goes. Most on this subforum have now equaled or exceeded their seasonal normal. I can understand cyclone and Hawkeye complaining about what is happening all around them as they have not seen a 6+ event but the same cannot be said for most others here. Not sure about Toronto though. As Tim said ( i do agree ) nobody likes missing. So yeah that i can understand even in a big winter like this. I'll always complain about being missed. I'll say this too, I need to take my own advice and stop judging this winter by what everyone else is getting. I mean we've had a great winter so far, and although we missed Jan 5th, we had the clipper-squall-clipper weekend a couple weeks back that dumped 10". We've had plenty of snowcover, for extended periods and comparing cmh to cmh...it's been really good. Just hard not to get sucked up in what everyone else is getting. For instance, everyone bitching about philly....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He was an exceptionally annoying weenie. Good riddance. Biggest weenie He was lurking this forum for a few days and didnt post but I guess he lost it in the other forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Um Jan 5th most certainly did if i recall right? This gets to the problem wrfeeck has. The big 12+ has failed miserably in the city itself ( models have teased it many times ) and even your backyard as far as that goes. Ofcourse you are not as into big events so yeah i imagine it does not bother you as much. You have accepted your climo for what it is. STILL as far as the big 12.5+ event goes i believe Detroit itself now has the longest running streak without one in this subforum of any of the big metro areas. I admit that would bug the crap out of me. Still nobody else should really be complaining about what someone else gets when it comes to stuff like this atleast. I have more then enough times see people get bent recently when Chicago or Michigan is under the gun. I went nearly 3 years without a 6+ event. I really don't wanna hear it about what is going on this winter here. I am very happy most is sharing in the wealth. Hopefully we can spread some of it to Toronto and Cyclone/Hawkeye. Absolutely not. We were not at any point expected to get 12"+ from that storm. We were forecast originally 5-9" then it was upped to 6-10" and actually got a little over 10". No model showed 12"+ either. What happened was....a band well N & NW of Detroit near Flint had anywhere from 12-17" storm TOTAL because the morning had a stalled front which surprised them with 5-7", then they got the additional snowfall from the main L itself which actually spread the wealth over the area quite evenly (with, as said, actually a period of heavier snow from DTW south to the OH border) but we got an inch from the front to their 5-7". (And believe you me...if that happened in Detroit...all we would be hearing about is how we got so lucky from the stalled front sitting over us....as the main storm was another in a long line of 8-10" type storms ). If we are on the subject of the biggest storms then by all means have at it. But its hilarious that anytime ANYTHING snow-wise is brought up the same crowd doesnt even see what was said, all they can do is go back to that 12"+ storm thing. Its like a kid comes home all happy to show his mom his report card with all As, and she looks at it, doesnt even read it, and says "I remember when you got a C in Math last year". Believe me, I TOTALLY get wanting that historic storm. But it often gets brought up when its not even what was being talked about. And just to clarify its NOT that Im into big events. I love them. Its just that I think the gripes that come from this region are a bunch of crap a lot of times. This winter has solidified it. I mean we are breaking records left, right, and sideways, every storm/event is meeting expectations or overperfoming, and its actually getting to the point when storms are berated based on snowflake size, duration, length of the event, or something that happened years ago, or something that happens in other areas gets lauded on when it has been bashed when the same thing has happened here, etc etc. I actually MISS the old days when the NAM clown map would show 18" two days before and we got 10". That was simple, cut and dried, and understandable. This year its like Im in the twilight zone when I read some of the stuff I have read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll say this too, I need to take my own advice and stop judging this winter by what everyone else is getting. I mean we've had a great winter so far, and although we missed Jan 5th, we had the clipper-squall-clipper weekend a couple weeks back that dumped 10". We've had plenty of snowcover, for extended periods and comparing cmh to cmh...it's been really good. Just hard not to get sucked up in what everyone else is getting. For instance, everyone bitching about philly....lol. meh.. It is my hometown ( Philly) but it doesn't bother me if they do or don't get it unless we are smoking cirrus all winter long. They have that ocean close by to help them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll say this too, I need to take my own advice and stop judging this winter by what everyone else is getting. I mean we've had a great winter so far, and although we missed Jan 5th, we had the clipper-squall-clipper weekend a couple weeks back that dumped 10". We've had plenty of snowcover, for extended periods and comparing cmh to cmh...it's been really good. Just hard not to get sucked up in what everyone else is getting. For instance, everyone bitching about philly....lol. Thats a huge part of the problem for all of us to some extent. We are so in tune with whats happening everywhere that we use THAT as a judgment stick. Say, for instance, we were having a terrible winter, like the warmest on record, and then some arctic front came down and finally gave us all a few inches of snow with it, but it strengthened and gave CMH like 6", which melted 2 days later. Now...that would seem like a terrible winter overall, but would you feel like a king because CMH did better then everyone else? I imagine thats what it was like here in 1966-67 or 1977-78. Great winters from a climo standpoint, but we were the definite screwhole of the region. I cannot think of any winter that lives in lore in this region more than 1977-78. Detroit had snowfall well above normal (61.7"), record snowcover and record cold. But lets just say if this board was here, SE MI posters would be on about the 4th complaint thread right now because of what happened elsewhere to our N S E W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thats a huge part of the problem for all of us to some extent. We are so in tune with whats happening everywhere that we use THAT as a judgment stick. Say, for instance, we were having a terrible winter, like the warmest on record, and then some arctic front came down and finally gave us all a few inches of snow with it, but it strengthened and gave CMH like 6", which melted 2 days later. Now...that would seem like a terrible winter overall, but would you feel like a king because CMH did better then everyone else? I imagine thats what it was like here in 1966-67 or 1977-78. Great winters from a climo standpoint, but we were the definite screwhole of the region. I cannot think of any winter that lives in lore in this region more than 1977-78. Detroit had snowfall well above normal (61.7"), record snowcover and record cold. But lets just say if this board was here, SE MI posters would be on about the 4th complaint thread right now because of what happened elsewhere to our N S E W. It's the same for many of the Toronto posters here. This has been a decent winter here. I think we will finish with above average snowfall, we had snow during the run-up to Christmas, a cold and frosty Christmas Eve, snow on the ground Christmas Day and a very cold January. I would honestly give this winter a B+ thus far, given my standards. In order to get an A, we need to have a Big Dog Storm. For an A+ the snow has to stay on the ground through to the end of March. My point is that we are comparing our winter to what places all around us are getting, specifically Detroit and Chicago. If this were the pre-internet days, Toronto weenies would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Uh oh... Can't wait until snowstormcanuck sees Ottawa Blizzard's post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wait a minute, I just saw toronto blizzard got banned? I know it's taboo to talk about it, but somebody give me the quick and dirty. No idea. His last post was about a week ago. Have a feeling he posted one of his rants ( about his horrible winter ) in another sub forum which i have seen him do a few times. That is if this is the same dude i am thinking of? Is he banned permanently or is it just temporary? Yeah, he sometimes posted in the NYC and New England forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Uh oh... Can't wait until snowstormcanuck sees Ottawa Blizzard's post... Meh, he's got his own criteria and that's fine. The cold has made this winter worth the grade he's giving it. For me, I'd probably assess it around a B-. No big storm, our relative poor performance compared to surrounding areas, and the meager nature of the + departures all keep me from going higher. But a B- is still a good grade and this is still a good winter. Just nothing exceptional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Is he banned permanently or is it just temporary? Yeah, he sometimes posted in the NYC and New England forums. He's gone until he signs up again under a different username. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Meh, he's got his own criteria and that's fine. The cold has made this winter worth the grade he's giving it. For me, I'd probably assess it around a B-. No big storm, our relative poor performance compared to surrounding areas, and the meager nature of the + departures all keep me from going higher. But a B- is still a good grade and this is still a good winter. Just nothing exceptional. I didn't expect such an anti-climatic response given how you went in on Stebo for saying something similar (granted I'm sure it was more so for the douchebag way he said it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He's gone until he signs up again under a different username. Etobicoke Blizzard maybe? Don't you guys know each other in person? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I didn't expect such an anti-climatic response given how you went in on Stebo for saying something similar (granted I understand it was for the douchebag way he said it). We Canadians are nice to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I didn't expect such an anti-climatic response given how you went in on Stebo for saying something similar (granted I'm sure it was more so for the douchebag way he said it). That argument was about complaining (and who had the "right" to complain) more so than it was about grading the winter. But I definitely don't want to disturb that sleeping dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Etobicoke Blizzard maybe? Don't you guys know each other in person? 1) He's from Mississauga, not Etobicoke and 2) no. But we should considering we're all wx nuts and live nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just don't understand why it's so hard to get a foot of snow for DTW.. Like seriously? Give it up. Only TWICE since 1929 and one was from a abnormal and ridiculous clipper. Chances are it's not gonna happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Now I bet if Detroit were in the bullseye at this range, this POS storm would continue trending NW. The one time we could a 25-50 mile NW shift is when the models want to hold steady on a solution, if not shift the opposite direction. It's March 2008 all over again. I'm ready for Spring after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Now I bet if Detroit were in the bullseye at this range, this POS storm would continue trending NW. The one time we could a 25-50 mile NW shift is when the models want to hold steady on a solution, if not shift the opposite direction. It's March 2008 all over again. I'm ready for Spring after this. I agree, but then again, there hasn't been one day that felt like 30F or above since December here, so that would figure. I rarely say this, but I'm ready for a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I agree, but then again, there hasn't been one day that felt like 30F or above since December here, so that would figure. I rarely say this, but I'm ready for a torch. If the system this weekend doesn't produce, then I say yes to that as well. The nickel and dimer's are boring at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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