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Winter '13/'14 Banter/Complaint Thread Part 2


Powerball

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Just thought this was worth a few lolz, but here's my convo with Hoosier before winter started. I'm sure he won't mind me sharing this, because of the awfulness of my winter call. 

 

I should have known I was doomed when Hoosier said my outlook was warmer and less snowy than WLFI's "best".  :arrowhead:

 

Geez, what an awful call by me. Wrong about the biggest driver of the winter, the EPO...and focusing too much on the freakin' AO.  :axe: The carnage below...

 

Hoosier on November 27

Any new thoughts from you about winter?

 

Me on November 27

I'm kinda confused to be honest. Granted, my expertise is quite low with long range calls...but everything I come up has mixed signals (some cold/snowy and some warm/less snowy). I know the focus is on this super +AO winter, but it hasn't stopped the cold train this November. Whether that means anything going forward is beyond my understanding of patterns. Might be a good winter to go normal/normal. Lame, I know.

 

Hoosier on November 27

Me too.  I'm getting mixed signals.  If the EPO trends positive for any sustained length of time then I think odds dramatically shift in favor of a warmer than average winter (+EPO/+AO/+NAO is what I'd call the trifecta of doom lol) but all things considered, something not far from average is probably a safe call.  I hope we can avoid a repeat of 08-09...or maybe shift that gradient south.

 

Me on November 30

Alright, have to make a call for this winter for LAF. I leaned warm, considering the +AO being a seemingly good bet...and the EPO won't be negative all the time. And with most +AO winters, the NAO tends to be neutral to positive. My analogs were a strong Nino, moderate Nina, and a warm neutral...so ENSO didn't play much of a role in my guess. Though I guess you can have similar outcomes no matter the state of it.

 

December temps: +1.5

January temps: +2.0

February temps: +1.0

 

Snowfall: 15-20" (with 2-3 mixed bag/sloppy events)

 

Hoosier on November 30

You realize you're warmer/less snowy than Chad?   :lol:

 

It's a sensible outlook given how things look to shape up but I'm not quite as pessimistic as you.  I doubt we have a big winter in terms of snow and the real hangup for me is temps.  Odds probably favor warmer than average but I have this nagging feeling that this winter may buck conventional wisdom.

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severe people...grabbed this from OceanStWx in the SNE subforum.  Sounds like this could be a big help.

 

 


Well some interesting news coming down the pike for this season (hopefully), the radars will all be getting the next build update equipped with SAILS.

 

Supplemental Adaptive Intra-Volume Low-Level Scan will basically find the middle (based on time) of the last volume scan and add a new split cut scan of the lowest elevation (usually 0.5 degrees). Long story short, we'll have base scans more frequently (roughly every two minutes). Big help for storms with wind (tornadic or otherwise) concerns.

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If Lake Erie wasn't frozen, we would of gotten 3 feet+ of snow the last few days. Watertown and Buffalo Airport get hit with the same wind direction. =(

 

STORM TOTALS ARE OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
WATERTOWN 44.7 800 AM 2/09 SOCIAL MEDIA

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Saturday snow for parts of the Midwest....what else is new?

Starting to get a bit old, since this region has all but given up on snow removal for the weekend and considering I work all weekend I get the enjoyment of almost getting run off the road by semis and idiots.

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Starting to get a bit old, since this region has all but given up on snow removal for the weekend and considering I work all weekend I get the enjoyment of almost getting run off the road by semis and idiots.

Read about that serious water main break near you on Gratiot.  Reading from media and other mets that there will be quite the concern for older municipal pipes as the thaw begins.

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Read about that serious water main break near you on Gratiot.  Reading from media and other mets that there will be quite the concern for older municipal pipes as the thaw begins.

 

It is going to be hell come spring, brand new roads are crumbling, old roads have potholes that could swallow up a car and county road commissions are blowing their yearly budget on snow removal. So when it comes time to fix the roads there will be zero in the coffers.  We also have a sinkhole downtown due to a water main break back around Christmas, that is still causing traffic issues 6 weeks later.

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Starting to get a bit old, since this region has all but given up on snow removal for the weekend and considering I work all weekend I get the enjoyment of almost getting run off the road by semis and idiots.

 

Hopefully if is does snow this weekend there it will be warm enough for the salt to do it's job without any issues. 

 

Yeah potholes are only going to become more numerous between now and March. In fact I saw some road crews out today in this cold try to patch some, because they were so deep. Enough said on that in here.

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Glad you get them too, thought it was an issue on my end

Nah the site can't handle the influx of traffic due to the I-95 potential in a few days. Unfortunately it is going to continue on until the storm passes through fully which isn't going to be until Thursday Morning.

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It's amazing that even in a supposedly spread-the-wealth/historic winter, there's still drama on this forum. 

 

And the hilarious part is the drama is stirring between the Chicago/Illinois folks and Detroit/Michigan folks (ones who HAVE done the BEST this season), not the folks such as cyclone77 / BowMeHunter / hawkeye_wx / SSC who HAVEN'T done AS well.

 

Granted, I suppose part of this can be attributed to the fact that the Ontario and Ohio posters have already spun off their discussions into autonomous threads (maybe the Chicago/Illinois and Detroit/Michigan should do the same?).

 

But I guess the forum wouldn't be the same without some type of drama.

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It's amazing that even in a supposedly spread-the-wealth/historic winter, there's still drama on this forum. 

 

And the hilarious part is the drama is stirring between the Chicago/Illinois folks and Detroit/Michigan folks (ones who HAVE done the BEST this season), not the folks such as cyclone77 / BowMeHunter / hawkeye_wx / SSC who HAVEN'T done AS well.

 

But I guess the forum wouldn't be the same without some type of drama.

 

DAB, PUNT

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Nah the site can't handle the influx of traffic due to the I-95 potential in a few days. Unfortunately it is going to continue on until the storm passes through fully which isn't going to be until Thursday Morning.

The roads in Toronto are starting to become a mess with potholes. I am pretty excited for the south and east coast regarding this storm. Not to often to see Augusta and parts of SC expecting massive snow and ice. 

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It's amazing that even in a supposedly spread-the-wealth/historic winter, there's still drama on this forum. 

 

And the hilarious part is the drama is stirring between the Chicago/Illinois folks and Detroit/Michigan folks (ones who HAVE done the BEST this season), not the folks such as cyclone77 / BowMeHunter / hawkeye_wx / SSC who HAVEN'T done AS well.

 

Granted, I suppose part of this can be attributed to the fact that the Ontario and Ohio posters have already spun off their discussions into autonomous threads (maybe the Chicago/Illinois and Detroit/Michigan should do the same?).

 

But I guess the forum wouldn't be the same without some type of drama.

 

I guess mentioning potential road problems with these weekend storms, send some into a tizzy.

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