RJSnowLover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS with 6-8" over here, with a blob of 8"+ just away from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GFS takes the 32 line safely north of IKK. My parents aren't too pumped about ice, so that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I guess the main concern would be if the WAA is underdone as has happened countless times. It's going to be an interesting battle...will the heavier precip rates keep it as snow in areas that are borderline. Good points. One good example of the heavier rates keeping it as snow was the 2/7/13 paste bomb in northeast IL and southeast WI. Though there was some contribution from wetbulbing/evaporational cooling in that event in addition to excellent dynamic cooling via lift from the fgen and large scale lift from the upper trough. That was more of a marginal set-up than tomorrow aloft and at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well for what it's worth the day before the the big rainstorm on 1/10 and huge icing problem in parts of northern Illinois, the high was 25 at RFD. So it did start moderating, though the low that morning was -13. I think it's a concern for your area despite the moderation the past 2 days since it hit -13 a few mornings ago and -1 the next morning. After what happened on 1/10, I can say that was definitely discussed at the office yesterday as a big concern in our southern areas. Yeah, I was thinking about that event as well. Thanks for the post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Iced over roads and salt washed away. This was definitely a factor for us on 1/10. Throughout that evening, when precip rates went down, the salt they were spreading stuck around and was doing its thing. Under heavier showers the salt simply washed away and surfaces continued to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You guys in northern IL had mentioned that you only saw ice on pavement during that event a couple weeks ago, but I'm wondering if other objects may still accrete in areas where temps barely poke above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hoosier, 3 Fridays ago, we were 33-34 and while the roads turned into water-covered skating rinks, there was zero accretion on twigs, cars, buildings, nothing. If it was touching the ground itself, it was frozen. Any elevation and it just dripped right off. In fact, I don't recall any crust on the scraggly snow that was left. But if you plowed a parking lot beforehand, you had a skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just looking at 12z NAM thermal profiles, we're getting a little too close for comfort here. 775mb layer gets to 0 at the peak of the storm and 850s are hovering around 0.5. I've got to imagine the GFS is pretty similar, but will wait for text output before making any conclusions. Still snow, but very, very close to the pingers. I'm also going to pin the ratios on this at about 8-9:1. So 5-8 is a good forecast for LOT as it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This was definitely a factor for us on 1/10. Throughout that evening, when precip rates went down, the salt they were spreading stuck around and was doing its thing. Under heavier showers the salt simply washed away and surfaces continued to ice. Just heard that road temps in IN on the INDOT road sensors are not too cold, so hopefully above freezing icing won't be as big a problem this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT upgraded to a warning for 6-10" for generally along/north of I-80. Warning for snow/ice south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is looking like the storm I will hopefully get to test that saying: "Sometimes you got to smell the rain to get the best snows." Hopefully that is all Jonger and I do is 'smell the rain'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're going to get screwed with mixing issues in PIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just heard that road temps in IN on the INDOT road sensors are not too cold, so hopefully above freezing icing won't be as big a problem this time. I don't think it will be since the past 24 hours have been close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 uh oh, dtx is bullish...calling for 4-7" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 uh oh, dtx is bullish...calling for 4-7" here Wasn't Canadian north always? Now its south...pretty good hit for S/E Mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT upgraded to a warning for 6-10" for generally along/north of I-80. Warning for snow/ice south of there. Kind of an odd little hole of WWA in Winnebago and Boone with WSW SW and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 uh oh, dtx is bullish...calling for 4-7" here I am not sure that is so bullish ... I think AA should get a solid thump snow (4-5") before any change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT mentioning potential thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wasn't Canadian north always? Now its south...pretty good hit for S/E Mi. Canadian is pretty much unchanged from the last 3 days ... it has actually been a pretty darn solid model this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT mentioning potential thundersnow. was just going to say, latest NMM has that convective showery look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Canadian is pretty much unchanged from the last 3 days ... it has actually been a pretty darn solid model this winter. It really has. Probably see 2-5" of snow here followed by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 uh oh, dtx is bullish...calling for 4-7" here DTX also called for light snow and only less than 1" of snow on 1/26/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It really has. Probably see 2-5" of snow here followed by rain. I trust it right now more than the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I trust it right now more than the EURO It has been far superior to the Euro this winter, at least for here. In terms of both consistency and actual results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT IT APPEARS THAT A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF THE TRANSITION LINE...TROUGH THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL DERIVED CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY SNOW. THE MOST NOTABLE IS THE STRONG BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN PROXIMITY TO A DECENT LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV. SIMILARLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DGZ...WITH EVEN A LITTLE CAPE NOTED FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650 MB. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE BAND OF STRONG FGEN...WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS SATURDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB AROUND 0 TO -4 DEGREES CELSIUS...SUGGESTS THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GOOD AGGREGATION OF SNOW FLAKES...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW. ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAINLY HEAVY SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AREAS COULD RUN IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WINTER MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY MORNING...SO AMOUNTS COULD BE TAMPERED SOME THERE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE WARING UPGRADE IS ACROSS WINNEBAGO AND BOONE COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE AMOUNTS MAY REMAIN JUST UNDER 6 INCHES. FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES WE WILL GO TO AN ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 TWC Video on this storm. Their in house model only has DTW mixing for few hours and is mostly snow. Same areas that were in sweet spot for jan 5th storm here in MI, in it with this one. Odd too that the structure and movement of the bands in this storm look similar to jan 5th also. No real wound up storm but still fairly strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 uh oh, dtx is bullish...calling for 4-7" here I think its a great call. Just the front end alone will bring AA 3-5" then another 1-2" on the back side. Seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Local mets here are calling for 2-5" with mainly rain south of I-96... Kinda interested in knowing what models they are looking at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Maybe the last week of Feb. I would say then. Or in marginal temperatures with -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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