Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Have you taken a look at any of the Hi-Res guidance? Noticed they all have the 0*C 850 mb line approximately 50 miles further South than NAM/GFS/EURO. I wonder if this is a result of Hi-Res guidance producing more adiabatic cooling during the period of greatest lift. Being right on the edge of the 850 0C line I am hoping the precip rates will keep it all/mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Have you taken a look at any of the Hi-Res guidance? Noticed they all have the 0*C 850 mb line approximately 50 miles further South than NAM/GFS/EURO. I wonder if this is a result of Hi-Res guidance producing more adiabatic cooling during the period of greatest lift. I hadn't yet but will check that out today. But I was banking on the dynamic cooling from the intense vv's in preventing much of a mixing threat up this way even in the warmer model runs. Would think that it have to be +1C in the warm layer around 850 to go to sleet, even between something like 0.5 or 0.7c would have a decent shot to stay all snow during the time of greatest lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Glad to see the NAM come south a bit... Just about all models now have the 32 line right over top or just a hair south of Howell. It's going to be a good 4-6 inches here, but probably .10 to .25 ZR/Sleet. Its going to be an interesting day tomorrow and thankfully I'm off and will be in full monitor mode from my home. I have seen these systems end up as all snow too. If that happened, it could be a big F---ing deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Will the sun angle be an issue with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Will the sun angle be an issue with this storm? NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Will the sun angle be an issue with this storm? Sure, why not? It's going to be a slop storm for a fair number of us either way, so what difference will it make... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NO! 'copter Thanks. I was just wondering given we're at the end of January now. I find once we get to this point, snow doesn't accumulate on paved surfaces until late afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thanks. I was just wondering given we're at the end of January now. I find once we get to this point, snow doesn't accumulate on paved surfaces until late afternoon/evening. Huh. We had 12 inches last may during the day in saint Charles mn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z RGEM looks like the NAM. 1006mb low over the St. Clair River at 0z/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thanks. I was just wondering given we're at the end of January now. I find once we get to this point, snow doesn't accumulate on paved surfaces until late afternoon/evening. Did Feb 8 last year accumulate on paved surfaces during the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thanks. I was just wondering given we're at the end of January now. I find once we get to this point, snow doesn't accumulate on paved surfaces until late afternoon/evening. This is a bit, right? Surely you can't be serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Will the sun angle be an issue with this storm? Sun angle will not be a worry for you for another month. And even then its in light snow, moderate or heavy snow sun angle is not a problem period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Glad to see the NAM come south a bit... Just about all models now have the 32 line right over top or just a hair south of Howell. It's going to be a good 4-6 inches here, but probably .10 to .25 ZR/Sleet. Its going to be an interesting day tomorrow and thankfully I'm off and will be in full monitor mode from my home. I have seen these systems end up as all snow too. If that happened, it could be a big F---ing deal. These kind of systems tend to surprise a lot of people in the Hills of SEMI. It would not surprise me to see a swap of very heavy amounts a line from the Irish Hills to Romeo. If the models don't trend more north. Where its at now now Howell to mby is a 7-10" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sun angle issues begin around the 10th of March I think? idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Been a long time since i've had a nice heavy cement snow...even longer since i've had one that falls on top of a respectable existing snowpack. Able to check off a lot of storm types for our backyard this winter....if this pans out the way it looks...about all that is left is the elusive big dog But yes, it will be nice to be able to have confidence in my hourly measurements for about only the second time this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ugly warm layer showing up on the NAM by 0z tomorrow. Almost +3c at 800mb. Dynamic cooling can't save us with temps like that. Although 1/2" of QPF in the form of snow is already down by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sun angle issues begin around the 10th of March I think? idk. Maybe the last week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Have you taken a look at any of the Hi-Res guidance? Noticed they all have the 0*C 850 mb line approximately 50 miles further South than NAM/GFS/EURO. I wonder if this is a result of Hi-Res guidance producing more adiabatic cooling during the period of greatest lift. Here is a quick map I threw together showing the NW extent of the 0*C line. It will be really interesting to see how this pans out. Typically the warm air advection overperforms, but with a weak surface reflection, and no closed low at 700, will the UVV win out? I would guess the Northern extent of the snow/mix line will probably be near the Euro (blue line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 33 @ IND / 23 @ LAF .. Should be interesting to see how this plays out today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 4km NAM has LAF within 1C of freezing at the surface and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 going deep...sim radar looks like a classic...waa thump, pivot, and defo Whoa Nellie. The full suite for LOT. This looks to be a classic. I'm actually hoping for a nice heaping of cement before the potential big dog next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 4km NAM has LAF within 1C of freezing at the surface and heavy rain. Iced over roads and salt washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z RGEM p-type maps flip IKK to plain rain fairly quickly. It really kills off any sustained freezing rain threat in NE IL, other than a very narrow ribbon... and instead it eventually turns into just a rain/snow line. FWIW, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 4km NAM has LAF within 1C of freezing at the surface and heavy rain. The LAF special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Iced over roads and salt washed away. Hadn't really thought of that. Not saying the NAM will be right, but 33F and rain is just cruel. Thankfully temperatures have moderated the last couple of days so hopefully ground/road temperatures won't be as much of issue had it been -10 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Southern portions of the LOT CWA look "interesting", if the 12z NAM is right. I suppose even if temps reach 33-34 for a time, there may still be icy issues. Cold ground/surfaces, yada yada. You should go ice chasing to IKK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You should go ice chasing to IKK. Heavy heavy virga storm here today. Warnings have been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Obviously Chicago will do well with this one since it's on the anniversary of 1/31-2/1/08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hadn't really thought of that. Not saying the NAM will be right, but 33F and rain is just cruel. Thankfully temperatures have moderated the last couple of days so hopefully ground/road temperatures won't be as much of issue had it been -10 yesterday. Well for what it's worth the day before the the big rainstorm on 1/10 and huge icing problem in parts of northern Illinois, the high was 25 at RFD. So it did start moderating, though the low that morning was -13. I think it's a concern for your area despite the moderation the past 2 days since it hit -13 a few mornings ago and -1 the next morning. After what happened on 1/10, I can say that was definitely discussed at the office yesterday as a big concern in our southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I hadn't yet but will check that out today. But I was banking on the dynamic cooling from the intense vv's in preventing much of a mixing threat up this way even in the warmer model runs. Would think that it have to be +1C in the warm layer around 850 to go to sleet, even between something like 0.5 or 0.7c would have a decent shot to stay all snow during the time of greatest lift. I guess the main concern would be if the WAA is underdone as has happened countless times. It's going to be an interesting battle...will the heavier precip rates keep it as snow in areas that are borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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