LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I needed a car wash, so I am fine with the NAM. Agreed! Not even sure of the paint color of my car these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM and GFS barely keep taint away from Chicago. we continue to see baby steps north with the warm air...still think we stay all snow but it's getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM and GFS barely keep taint away from Chicago. Still looks like 5-9 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 4km NAM really gets the banding going saturday afternoon. Has 5-7" in total GTA wide with up to a foot along the oak ridges and across grey/bruce county. hires_ref_toronto_40.png 6z WRF-NAM obviously is concerning but now even the RGEM has backed off an has seems to take a more modest sfc low right over us rather than through Lk Huron. I'll make a call and say the 12z NAM backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the ticks north are done...if anything there might be ticks south from this point forward IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 3z SREF plumes for YYZ = a range of 2-8" and a mean of 5.4". They did well with the clippers last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the ticks north are done...if anything there might be ticks south from this point forward IMO any reason or just a hunch. I think we have more n. shifts coming, especially with the defo placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the ticks north are done...if anything there might be ticks south from this point forward IMO I'd agree. Tendency will be for the northern stream s/w that's forecasted to scoop down into the Lakes to shunt the the string of PVA associated with the southern stream storm further S/E than what the NAM is showing, and yield a somewhat less wrapped up sfc low. Of course I thought this whole thing would end up being suppressed 5 days ago, so I have a history of being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GEM, GFS, Euro all went south on their last runs, at least with the surface temps. Most models except the NAM all keep the 32 line just to my south by like 15 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SREF mean for ORD back over 6", but there are now some low ZR and Rain chances showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 any reason or just a hunch. I think we have more n. shifts coming, especially with the defo placement. Sorry...more so just a hunch...I don't have quite the level of analysis that most of you have, but I have been watching nearly every model run for the good part of 10 years ( ). It is just something that I have noticed over those years with these types of setups...gradual north trend H48 to H18 then small ticks south. My concern with this has far less to do with what snowfalls IMBY and more to do with who ends up seeing more ice south of the current projected snow swath. EDIT: and yeah, I guess I should also add that I have been doing pretty horribly on this event as well....so it wouldn't shock me for that trend to continue until this system is long gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GEM, GFS, Euro all went south on their last runs, at least with the surface temps. Most models except the NAM all keep the 32 line just to my south by like 15 miles. Such a fine line with 7-8 inches vs 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like 45-50 at least here tomorrow! Going to feel good, but also going to be the end of any snow on the ground here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like 45-50 at least here tomorrow! Going to feel good, but also going to be the end of any snow on the ground here.. And water pouring in my roof. Lost a rafter under that heavy snow the first of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like 45-50 at least here tomorrow! Going to feel good, but also going to be the end of any snow on the ground here.. Back to reality. It was a lot of fun while it lasted though. And final call for LAF, for the heck of it: T of something wintry, 0.85" rainfall, 45º for a high tomorrow. Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Back to reality. It was a lot of fun while it lasted though. And final call for LAF, for the heck of it: T of something wintry, 0.85" rainfall, 45º for a high tomorrow. Spring! Yep, the fun is over! As I said yesterday, snow shield for Central Indiana is back in effect! Looks like Chicago is going to have dumptrucks of snow by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM top, GFS bottom. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sorry...more so just a hunch...I don't have quite the level of analysis that most of you have, but I have been watching nearly every model run for the good part of 10 years ( ). It is just something that I have noticed over those years with these types of setups...gradual north trend H48 to H18 then small ticks south. My concern with this has far less to do with what snowfalls IMBY and more to do with who ends up seeing more ice south of the current projected snow swath. EDIT: and yeah, I guess I should also add that I have been doing pretty horribly on this event as well....so it wouldn't shock me for that trend to continue until this system is long gone lol cool, hunches are fine...I was just curious. Ride your call The only thing that bothers me is the 850 low, this, doesn't say snowstorm to me. I know we've seen snow this year with unconventional looking 850 lows but i'll never like it. (I'm sure we'll see the RAP bring 850s above 0 to like Geos or something silly like that) I'm also totally unsure what to make of the WAA snows starting late this evening...guidance has been all over the map and anywhere from DAB to 3" before daybreak wouldn't surprise me. The main show looks pretty potent so a good 3-4 hours of decent rates looks like a lock. For the record i'm riding the 4.something call I made for MBY a while back...don't think WAA snows amount to much and the defo will rip but be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yep, the fun is over! As I said yesterday, snow shield for Central Indiana is back in effect! Looks like Chicago is going to have dumptrucks of snow by this time next week. Should have a really nice virga storm today, so we got that going for ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Should have a really nice virga storm today, so we got that going for ourselves. Kind of like last night's storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Kind of like last night's storm! lol, yeah. Earlier yesterday I saw the radar and thought, sweet...looks like some snow. Then I saw LAF was 32/11 at the time...and I closed the blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 cool, hunches are fine...I was just curious. Ride your call The only thing that bothers me is the 850 low, this, doesn't say snowstorm to me. I know we've seen snow this year with unconventional looking 850 lows but i'll never like it. (I'm sure we'll see the RAP bring 850s above 0 to like Geos or something silly like that) I'm also totally unsure what to make of the WAA snows starting late this evening...guidance has been all over the map and anywhere from DAB to 3" before daybreak wouldn't surprise me. The main show looks pretty potent so a good 3-4 hours of decent rates looks like a lock. For the record i'm riding the 4.something call I made for MBY a while back...don't think WAA snows amount to much and the defo will rip but be short lived. good summation Alek ... your concerns make complete sense to me....just don't ask me to explain it to a classroom full of future mets... yeah, I have seen many models completely whiff on the WAA snows...guess we'll see if the 12Z guidance stamps out any new trends or stomps on any old trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm hoping for another 25-50 miles south on these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm hoping for another 25-50 miles south on these runs. Me too. Just need the cold to win with the High pressure dropping in Montana / ND. I would like a strong pressure coming in. EDIT ... typing and thinking some else at the same time! Ugg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GRR keeping southern rows in the watch while mentioning most areas along I-94 could see mucho rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 lol, yeah. Earlier yesterday I saw the radar and thought, sweet...looks like some snow. Then I saw LAF was 32/11 at the time...and I closed the blinds. I thought the same thing, but then looked outside and nuthin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GRR keeping southern rows in the watch while mentioning most areas along I-94 could see mucho rain.... I wonder if this will be one of those systems that stay snow around here (I96/M59) until the precip rates let up. Hopefully the 12Z sink south a bit for us ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z NAM is farther south and a bit colder through 15z Saturday. 1000-850 critical thickness is south of I-80 and 850-700 critical thickness is along I-80. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z NAM is farther south and a bit colder through 15z Saturday. 1000-850 critical thickness is south of I-80 and 850-700 critical thickness is along I-80. Sent from my SCH-I535 jot to naper could see some big time rates in a few of the frames....20 to 22Z 01FEB LOT does very well overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z NAM is farther south and a bit colder through 15z Saturday. 1000-850 critical thickness is south of I-80 and 850-700 critical thickness is along I-80. Yep. Shows a swath of 6-10" across N IL with 8-10" at ORD & Chi metro. Even Geos' area with 6-8" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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