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January 30-February 3rd Wave Train Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Well that's assuming it's right.

 

IT's really on the SE end of guidance right now. Granted, the RAP is typically a model that's way too far NW/amped.

Ya. We will see if they shift more north as the low comes north. Either way cool to see trends are looking good for detroit. Never fun to see slop...

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I noticed this too but thought it was a mouse over error. Was hoping for an update on the discussion for confirmation of the colder SW trends.

 

I noticed in SW Detroit and downriver they still have a changeover to rain/mix in the forecast.

 

So it may not have been a mouse over error, as the gradient in their grids appears to be legit. 

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All the usual spots on 52 are flooding badly. On the plus side, it's currently gritting itself with rocks and boulders :axe:. Very dense fog here on the west side.

 

It's brutal.

 

12z GFS and RGEM have about 2" or a little more of snow for us late tonight. Not that I buy it, but gonna have to watch.

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.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER

THERMAL PROFILE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z NAM MODEL. FURTHER

ADJUSTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GFS BECOMES

AVAILABLE. RESULT WAS TO TRIM COVERAGE OF SLEET TO M-59 SOUTHWARD

AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES. MIX WITH

SLEET AND SOME RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL STAY

FROM I-94 SOUTHWARD. UPDATED FORECAST AND WSW HAVE NEW VALUES.

AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WERE BUMPED UP

SLIGHTLY...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE 0.5 INCH THAT FELL

OVERNIGHT...DO EXPECT TO SEE 7 INCH TOTALS IN 18-24 HOURS FROM

NORTHERN WAYNE/WASHTENAW UP THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR. THIS KEEPS

THE HEADLINE AT ADVISORY...ALBEIT HIGH- END...FOR NOW.

RAP looks to be hitting the nail on the head with the latest snow bursts, lines up perfectly with the map.

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