BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I HATE feeling like i am rooting against you as i would like to see you get in on some decent action as well. no worries at all man.. I just don't want to be shut out.. couple inches would be nice and let those having a yr to remember add on.. I had my once in a lifetime winter in 2007.. man that winter seems just like yesterday but it's already going on 5 yrs. Time zips on by especially when you're a old fart like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tried being optimistic with this system, but it's looking like trends are heading back in the wrong direction in the 11th hour as usual. GFS/GGEM/and now Euro have ticked southeast. Bumping my earlier 4-6" call back to 3-4". Seasonal trends FTMFL here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro basically shows >4"+ N/of 696...<4" S/696 Just looking the Euro in depth, it is a bit too warm at the surface, the rest of the thermodynamic profile doesn't support 2m temps quite that high. It shows 34-37 when it should be closer to 31-34. Euro has been a bit notorious for doing this though. We shall see if it scores one on this, but I would lean a touch colder than what it is showing here in SEMI per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tried being optimistic with this system, but it's looking like trends are heading back in the wrong direction in the 11th hour as usual. GFS/GGEM/and now Euro have ticked southeast. Bumping my earlier 4-6" call back to 3-4". Seasonal trends FTMFL here. specially for you.... its been almost impossible to get excited for any event this winter so far.. seasonal and model trends are not ready to let up. at least spring is peaking around the corner for you and hopefully you have amore chances to get out and win chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 specially for you.... its been almost impossible to get excited for any event this winter so far.. seasonal and model trends are not ready to let up. at least spring is peaking around the corner for you and hopefully you have amore chances to get out and win chasing. We need a classic KC/QC/MKE storm. Seems like it's been a long time since we've seen one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I know. I was just sayin. Good. Already enough tension in the air tonight. Mt. Orion never seems to have to sweat the precip issues lol. Had a feeling the usually amped NW NAM would act like itself soon. Should be interesting tomorrow. BTW your pic creeps me out. Friend got me hooked ont hat show few months ago and watched all the seasons in 2 weeks....."I got your restraining order right here. Restrain this". (Grabs Groin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z ECMWF with 0.40-0.50" QPF for ORD. First call for ORD: 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We need a classic KC/QC/MKE storm. Seems like it's been a long time since we've seen one of those. Bowling Ball ( west to east ) storms have been rare in recent years. Kinda sucks as usually many will get in on the fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 First official call for here/MLI 3.1". Somewhere in the Ottawa IL to Gary IN gets close to 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We need a classic KC/QC/MKE storm. Seems like it's been a long time since we've seen one of those. yeah juicy cutters here have been few and far between now and when we had a few they ended up being congrats madison like last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Bowling Ball ( west to east ) storms have been rare in recent years. Kinda sucks as usually many will get in on the fun.. hope i can sneak some at least mood snow out with the one next week one.. I loves hare the wealth storms even if im lowest on the ruler. can't stand missing so close so many times but that's just the way it goes when in a relentless pattern. Lake MI ice extending out pretty far now will do me no favors either with misses to the south... sometimes even with a LAF special we can do ok with the lake added.. naso much now probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z ECMWF with 0.40-0.50" QPF for ORD. First call for ORD: 5.5" what does euro give you/ord for the one next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 what does euro give you/ord for the one next week? About 0.25"-ish this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 hope i can sneak some at least mood snow out with the one next week one.. I loves hare the wealth storms even if im lowest on the ruler. can't stand missing so close so many times but that's just the way it goes when in a relentless pattern. Lake MI ice extending out pretty far now will do me no favors either with misses to the south... sometimes even with a LAF special we can do ok with the lake added.. naso much now probably I would not be to certain as far as the lake goes. Not yet anyways.. I kinda thought the same till last Sunday when the lake decided to share some real love here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Aleks NMM and ARW both agree on 0.50-0.75" for ORD and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would not be to certain as far as the lake goes. Not yet anyways.. I kinda thought the same till last Sunday when the lake decided to share some real love here. Honestly I doubt near-shore ice really has that big of an impact. I think a bigger problem would be ice extending way out into the middle of the lake. Can think of a number of significant lake effect events that had ice near the shore...heck there was that one last week that dumped 2 feet on Lake county Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah i wouldn't be worried so much in lake county and the other side of the lake yet.. still getting good fetch and everthing doesn't have to line up perfect like for mke and then you throw in ice and marginal conditions. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ima stick with my 6.7" at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 About 0.25"-ish this run. Thanks much.. we got some work to do at 12z.. I'm not throwing the towel in on a nice event for chicago and a 2-4" event up here. fine with me as snow pack queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Going bold. 7.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If you're gonna bust, I'd say roll the dice and bust high. After watching today's models running between 5 & 10 inches, I don't think it's too stupid to try to ride the high side. 8.1" at ORD when all is said & done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Honestly I doubt near-shore ice really has that big of an impact. I think a bigger problem would be ice extending way out into the middle of the lake. Can think of a number of significant lake effect events that had ice near the shore...heck there was that one last week that dumped 2 feet on Lake county Indiana. Don't think north flow events are a great example. Still have most of the length of the lake to work with.. With west to east and vice versa we have alot less to work with already as is. But yeah obviously it has not had that great of a impact as i had feared YET. Yeah i wouldn't be worried so much in lake county and the other side of the lake yet.. still getting good fetch and everthing doesn't have to line up perfect like for mke and then you throw in ice and marginal conditions. meh. Still plenty to work with as far as a nne/ne flow goes. Anyways.. Hopefully you score a few to freshen things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Honestly I doubt near-shore ice really has that big of an impact. I think a bigger problem would be ice extending way out into the middle of the lake. Can think of a number of significant lake effect events that had ice near the shore...heck there was that one last week that dumped 2 feet on Lake county Indiana. The amount of near-shore ice has increased pretty dramatically since the Lake County event, actually, judging by the gif someone shared from the MKE office. However, I vaguely remember my one prof who's pretty much the authority on Lake Michigan LES saying something about how some research has shown that even significant amounts of ice don't really hinder LES development as much as we might think. If you're interested, I'll ask him if he has a paper about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM 6z still showing 6-8" for Chicagoland, with a 8"+ blip in the city of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 FWIW Nam went from being the furthest south (outlier), now it's the furthest north (outlier)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I needed a car wash, so I am fine with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i'm locked into the 4.9 (or something like that) call i made a day or so back...it still looks good but a little low. if it wasn't for the WAA snows, which could add anywhere from 0-3", i'd almost favor heaviest snows up near geos based on the track of the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Fun.... Today: Cloudy. Slight chance of light snow late in the morning. Light snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds around 10 mph early in the morning becoming light and variable in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Tonight: Snow. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows in the lower 20s. Then temperatures becoming steady or slowly rising. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. Saturday: Sleet and freezing rain early in the morning...then freezing rain and rain late in the morning. Freezing rain... Chance of sleet...snow and a chance of rain in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 2 to 7 inches. Ice accumulation of one tenth to one quarter of an inch. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds around 10 mph early in the morning shifting to the southwest in the late morning and early afternoon...then shifting to the northwest late in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 4km NAM really gets the banding going saturday afternoon. Has 5-7" in total GTA wide with up to a foot along the oak ridges and across grey/bruce county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM and GFS barely keep taint away from Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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