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January 30-February 3rd Wave Train Part 2


Chicago Storm

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The weenie in me would really like to see the radar back near the MO/IA/IL border start filling in. Either way, the next hour or two looks fun enough.

Agreed. But progressive is the way to go...it seems.

Thought LOT did a nice job walking the totals down with solid reasoning. Concise,clear, detailed.

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Agreed. But progressive is the way to go...it seems.

Thought LOT did a nice job walking the totals down with solid reasoning. Concise,clear, detailed.

 

 

LOT has been fine totally not bashing. I've accepted the big 7-9" totals aren't happening. The biggest let down is going to be missing out on a period of +SN with monster aggregate flakes

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LOT aviation update

 

/DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW IS PASSING OVER THE CHICAGO TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THROUGH 14Z-15Z. THERE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4SM FOR HOURS SINCE LATE LAST EVE IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SO THINK
THAT TEMPORARILY COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO 15Z AT CHICAGOLAND SITES.
WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY MID- MORNING...SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
UNDULATING VISIBILITY IS LIKELY. CIGS WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN IFR
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH EVEN LIFR LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. AS
THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CARRY ON FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING TO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE IN THE
DAY. IN RESPONSE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
17-18 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT 1/4SM TO 1/2SM VISIBILITY IN SNOW
WILL MAINLY BE PRIOR TO 15Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SNOWFALL WILL LAST MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES AT ORD
AND 5 TO 8 AT MDW.

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