Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So looking at the 00z NAM's top-down sounding, the max temperature is only 0.8*C at 875mb for DET. And this is only for 21z Saturday. The other soundings are all below freezing. Almost there... And lol at the Illinois folks talking about the system trending weaker and drier. NAM produces just over 0.9" of QPF at DET. So yeah, definitely dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm guessing skilling is not a model hugger. I've repeatedly seen him score when models do a late turn. But keep in mind 5" totals get him home. Too many focus on the high end. He spoons the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 He spoons the RPM Nah. Been making calls long before that model existed. Been following since about 1980. Either way, if RPM shows 4" and GFS 6" what's to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 5-10" is such a massive swath you're bound to get the forecast right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 5-10" is such a massive swath you're bound to get the forecast right. He kinda has to do that given the ptype issues in part of the area. WGN viewing area is pretty big and there could easily be that kind of spread in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Actually, according to the surface parameters, the 00z NAM is all snow for DET. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KDET.txt 9 02/01 09Z 24 23 97 3 0.02 0.00 533 549 -6.0 -22.5 1021 100 -SN 006OVC355 0.2 0.912 02/01 12Z 24 23 114 5 0.03 0.00 535 551 -5.0 -21.4 1019 100 -SN 005OVC383 0.3 1.615 02/01 15Z 27 27 112 6 0.07 0.00 538 552 -3.9 -20.2 1018 100 -SN 000OVC304 0.7 0.618 02/01 18Z 30 29 129 6 0.07 0.00 541 552 -0.9 -19.8 1013 100 -SN 000OVC346 0.8 1.121 02/01 21Z 31 31 109 3 0.16 0.00 543 551 0.1 -20.0 1010 100 SN 005OVC364 1.1 1.324 02/02 00Z 31 31 189 2 0.35 0.00 543 551 -1.2 -18.1 1009 100 SN 008OVC365 3.7 0.327 02/02 03Z 30 29 313 6 0.17 0.00 541 549 -2.3 -18.9 1010 100 -SN 006OVC357 1.7 0.830 02/02 06Z 27 25 321 9 0.03 0.00 537 547 -4.4 -19.9 1012 100 -SN 006OVC364 0.3 1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 He kinda has to do that given the ptype issues in part of the area. WGN viewing area is pretty big and there could easily be that kind of spread in totals. yeah exactly. He isn't throwing out a general call for 5-10". He said some parts of the area will get close to 5". Others will see closer to 10". Big area to cover in one forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nah. Been making calls long before that model existed. Been following since about 1980. Either way, if RPM shows 4" and GFS 6" what's to change. I agree and was just joking about his new RPM love. still a nice hit and no sense panicking too early for chicago area. 3-6" or 4-8" what's the difference outside the sack really. Minor shifts in track and intensity make a huge deal in where the higher totals will set up though and might end up a bit further south than thought by some and models. Geos really gonna have to work that magic ruler to stay ahead of ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z continually love to kill the 12z models happy hr buzz over and over. need new sleeping hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Received a little over 2" of snow through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So WAA snows so far are overachieving while the radar out across KS already looks pretty sweet. Hoping for the best, but still expecting the worst (granted the trends have been encouraging). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So WAA snows so far are overachieving while the radar out across KS already looks pretty sweet. Hoping for the best, but still expecting the worst (granted the trends have been encouraging). Would've been nice to see the GFS come south a bit but it does feel good to have the euro kinda on our side. I think anyone north of detroit and west of 75 is golden. Its those to the east of 75 that I think will get more of a mix. So many models and outcomes. Guess its nowcast time now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Would've been nice to see the GFS come south a bit but it does feel good to have the euro kinda on our side. I think anyone north of detroit and west of 75 is golden. Its those to the east of 75 that I think will get more of a mix. So many models and outcomes. Guess its nowcast time now... I just noticed you're a bit further south from your usual location (Macomb Twp.?). Convective snows will certainly help the cause, which seems to be what the NAM and the NMM hint at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just noticed you're a bit further south from your usual location (Macomb Twp.?). Convective snows will certainly help the cause, which seems to be what the NAM and the NMM hint at. Yea I moved about 5 miles further south. I was in the most southern part of macomb at my parents house. Was in the back of my mind when looking at houses to try to find a house further north so I don't have to worry about mixing issues so much in winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yea I moved about 5 miles further south. I was in the most southern part of macomb at my parents house. Was in the back of my mind when looking at houses to try to find a house further north so I don't have to worry about mixing issues so much in winter lol. Yeah. Your old location is in a much safer position for this one. But more good news is that the 00z NMM keeps the 0*C 850mb to the SE of us all, including michsnowfreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just returned from a social gathering. Treated main roads are in decent shape but some the lightly treated streets are turning into a skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 03z RAP pretty anemic with qpf from the QC northwest. Looks like 2-4" for QC, with maybe 1-2" for Hawkeye, and barely anything for DLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just finished looking at everything, and it's going to be very close here. Think between a quarter and a half of the precip falls as liquid, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So looking at the 00z NAM's top-down sounding, the max temperature is only 0.8*C at 875mb for DET. And this is only for 21z Saturday. The other soundings are all below freezing. Almost there... And lol at the Illinois folks talking about the system trending weaker and drier. NAM produces just over 0.9" of QPF at DET. So yeah, definitely dry as a bone. Definitely feeling better about this tonight than I did last night. Gonna be a wait-and-see type situation for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 2.1" here so far. Interesting that it yielded about 20:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Actually, according to the surface parameters, the 00z NAM is all snow for DET. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KDET.txt I was just looking at that. I wonder why it shows straight RA for KDTW with the 2m temp at 31F though? I would think that would show up as FZRA. Either way as long as the precip stays frozen I'd be more than happy, anything but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 03z RAP pretty anemic with qpf from the QC northwest. Looks like 2-4" for QC, with maybe 1-2" for Hawkeye, and barely anything for DLL. The RAP of this winter beats on. at least there is chances on the models outside of tracking 30:1 ratio clippers but we know how that chapter started and ended before the clipper pattern set in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 17° here now in Saginaw. They downgraded our forecasted amount a tad for tomorrow. Right now its for 4.8, but heck, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Light snow here in Detroit for the past hour or so. A heavy dusting on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1134 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS TO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MOCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 010534Z - 011030ZSUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODEVELOP/INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ASSLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLYCOMMON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO INCLUDING THE I-70CORRIDOR. AT LEAST LOCALIZED LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTSEXCEEDING 0.05 IN/HR ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...MODERATE SNOW WILL BECOMMON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA/FARWESTERN IL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.DISCUSSION...AS STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC/SPLIT UPPER FLOW EXISTSACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/PLAINS...LATE-EVENING ANALYZEDQUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS GENERALLYSOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX/EASTERN OK TO ROUGHLYALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OF MO. COINCIDENT WITH THE COLDER AIR NORTHOF THIS BOUNDARY...COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A GRADUALLY EXPANDINGPRECIPITATION SHIELD ARE READILY EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE/RADARIMAGERY RESPECTIVELY AS OF 05Z.FOCUSED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...INCREASING WARMADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASINGWINTER-MIXED PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT FROMEAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO. EMBEDDEDCONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL FURTHER AUGMENT PRECIPITATION RATES. THISIS EVIDENCED BY EPISODIC CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSSSOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING...ASIDE FROM OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCEINDICATIONS OF VERY WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY OVERNIGHT WITHIN THISCORRIDOR.WHILE SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR INITIALLY...FREEZING RAINSHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON...PARTICULARLY ACROSSCENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO THROUGH 09Z-12Z. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ROUGHLY 50MILES EITHER SIDE /NORTH AND SOUTH/ OF I-70. HERE...NEAR-SURFACETEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WHILE STRONG WARMADVECTION WILL ACCOUNT FOR A 1500-2000 M DEEP FULL-MELTING LAYERBASED AROUND/ABOVE 900 MB AS SATURATION OTHERWISE QUICKLY OCCURS...GUYER.. 02/01/2014ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...LAT...LON 39719249 39739158 39249095 38699126 38059348 3747962138079641 38859572 39069407 39719249 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Clouds thickening up here quickly. -SN looks to be only 15 miles south of here now. 17° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 tickle that north for cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 tickle that north for cyclone lol. 3-4" still looking good here. Nice refresher I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Broad look at how things look as we approach midnight central. EDIT: What's up with this shrunken thread view now? I have a 24" monitor and there's like 5" of blue border on either side of the actual thread view. What is this, the 90s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Clouds thickening up here quickly. -SN looks to be only 15 miles south of here now. 17° I was at -5F, but its moving up now -3F... not looking at much up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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