Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Another pencil thin band moving in. It's been our day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Another pencil thin band moving in. It's been our day. lol...I zoomed in on it, and I think it's barely gonna miss me to the north. But nice uptick as it moves over the heart of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Another pencil thin band moving in. It's been our day. Real nice bands south of I-80 in the LOT CWA now too. That'll help areas that are still in line to mix see their forecasted snow totals, if not higher in spots. And I'm gonna have faith in the work my coworkers did earlier today regarding tomorrow, until we're wrong lol. But the forecaster that worked winter weather desk today typically does an excellent job. He worked on the 2/7 and 3/5 events last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Skilling still going with 5-10 but you can see his updated RPM model in background showing 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol...I zoomed in on it, and I think it's barely gonna miss me to the north. But nice uptick as it moves over the heart of LAF. Near miss after near miss today.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Real nice bands south of I-80 in the LOT CWA now too. That'll help areas that are still in line to mix see their forecasted snow totals, if not higher in spots. And I'm gonna have faith in the work my coworkers did earlier today regarding tomorrow, until we're wrong lol. But the forecaster that worked winter weather desk today typically does an excellent job. He worked on the 2/7 and 3/5 events last year. RC agree with your reasoning but if the GFS follows the NAM dont you think that warnings should be adjusted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Near miss after near miss today.. LOL No complaints from me. Too good of a day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Skilling still going with 5-10 but you can see his updated RPM model in background showing 3-6. It was mostly 6"+ area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Another pencil thin band moving in. It's been our day. Nice, how much have you guys got today? As for up here, I am encouraged by the correction back southeast something we have been seeing all year with these systems as Justin mentioned. I still think the WWA is probably the best way to go here, it would be borderline either way. I say we probably end up with around 6" here and 5" down by work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It was mostly 6"+ area wide thought I saw 3.6 for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The latest guidance is not necessarily the best guidance. The 00z runs before the March 5th event last year backed off fairly significantly on qpf, only to be completely wrong. QPF is what the models do worst, so I highly doubt there's gonna be any downgrades based off a few runs of the NAM. The forcing parameters are what's important, not specific qpf totals. Sent from my SCH-I535 +10 Going to ride a 4-5" call here. What I've noticed is that the models run about 24 hours from the event are the best... this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nice, how much have you guys got today? As for up here, I am encouraged by the correction back southeast something we have been seeing all year with these systems as Justin mentioned. I still think the WWA is probably the best way to go here, it would be borderline either way. I say we probably end up with around 6" here and 5" down by work. A bit over 2" but Tim has already gone with a final total and he's not changing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Light snow in Chicago's western burbs. Mantra of the year..if it can find a way to snow it will fall. Trust the trend until it ends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The innie storm had potential to grow a small outtie and thread the needle and bring up respectable precip farther north/west but its just not going to happen in wiwx land again. probably be fighting the same battle of system getting crushed until too late with the next week one also. Is what it is and models will have a rough time so its best to go pessimistic while model hugging each run starting a week out for those still waiting on a sw flow storm to dump snow until the seasonal trends end.. might be next winter for wiwx lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Pretty good area of snow around 39/80 moving NE up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 -SN here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A bit over 2" but Tim has already gone with a final total and he's not changing it. LAF ends up with 3-4" total by tomorrow night. I don't see you guys getting completely shut out after tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 RGEM looking pretty weak sauce. Don't have precip numbers yet, but the precip type maps looks pretty wimpy from here northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A bit over 2" but Tim has already gone with a final total and he's not changing it. I don't think the 18 flakes falling here right now are going to make much of a difference. 0z RGEM, like the NAM, is hanging precip back again. Don't think it'll add much because of it's short duration, but maybe a brief mix to end things. EDIT: looks a little more interesting looping the p-type maps, but mainly just to our south. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 RC agree with your reasoning but if the GFS follows the NAM dont you think that warnings should be adjusted?? No I still doubt they because it would be a bad message to send to the public to do that before most of the snow even falls. Unless some areas under the WSW weren't gonna see any snow at all, I think headlines will remain unchanged. Whether it snows 5" or 7" in a given area, the travel impacts will still be significant. If we don't get the warning totals in some spots but still get significant snow (4-6"), the only thing it'll do is affect our verification, but I doubt much of the public will be upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Intensity has picked up a bit with some jumbo flakes mixing in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gfs slightly south and a little drier as well http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030 looks like a nice area of 7-9 south of city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Skilling isn't budging. Just said, that earlier model runs are sometimes the better ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Last night was thinking the heaviest band would line up from Burlington to Chicago. I'm thinking a little southeast of that now, probably from Macomb to Dwight, and up towards Valpo IN. Probably a nice 5-7" band in there with some isolated 8" amounts. EDIT: For Chicago proper I'd go with 4-5" from north to south, with maybe some 6" amounts in the southern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0z GFS follows suit a bit, but still looks like 6-7" through the heart of Chicago...but south suburbs do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Skilling not budging but when his bloated snow total RPM model shows a significant decrease in forecasted amounts, you know it's a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gfs slightly south and a little drier as well http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030 Your attached link shows 6" avg. through Chicagoland. Is that an old link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Your attached link shows 6" avg. through Chicagoland. Is that an old link? that is the 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 MKE 00Z NAM CUTS BACK ON QPF...MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF...ANDRESULTANT SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO SEE ENTIRESUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS.TREND OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN SNOWIER SO DO NOT WANT TOMAKE ANY RASH CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFTEVALUATE ENTIRE SUITE AND CUT BACK ON AMOUNTS IF NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Skilling not budging but when his bloated snow total RPM model shows a significant decrease in forecasted amounts, you know it's a bad sign.I'm guessing skilling is not a model hugger. I've repeatedly seen him score when models do a late turn. But keep in mind 5" totals get him home. Too many focus on the high end.Radar south and west seems to be building nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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