BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 can we get any system to grow a sack.. this is a textbook winter on how the east and south gets its done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.50"-0.75" through 6z/2 and still coming down. Not much drier. But 0c 2m line staying SE of us is a huge change. Waiting on 0z NAM cobb. Looks to be coming in line with the RGEM and euro. Potentially higher then the 6.7" it had on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The latest guidance is not necessarily the best guidance. The 00z runs before the March 5th event last year backed off fairly significantly on qpf, only to be completely wrong. QPF is what the models do worst, so I highly doubt there's gonna be any downgrades based off a few runs of the NAM. The forcing parameters are what's important, not specific qpf totals. Sent from my SCH-I535 I remember Tom Skilling saying something like that earlier this winter. I think natural tendency is to think that the most recent runs must be the most accurate since they have the most updated data. At least wait for the other 00z models to come in...but besides that, we are getting into short range/nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I know its out of character for me to be sooo whiny lol...but another gripw I have is we finally get a storm with no wind and it looks to miss me mostly. Now maybe not a miss. But at the time surely a valid gripe I think the Livingston crew (Roy and me) are all snow now. 5-9 Inches looks good. Ahhhhh..a SEMI "classic" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Skilling same thing verbatim. Though it seems like a number of models have trended more toward a 4-6 inch fall. ORD now down to .46 thru 36 hrs down from .76 on 12z which is probably 1-2 inches for Alek (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro led the way and every single run since has followed...south and drier, including the GFS, NAM, RGEM, RAP, HRRR, etc. This isn't a single run quick impression...it's a clear trend. 3-6" from NW to SE across LOT's CWA looks appropriate. Per Baum, respectable but far from major. Don't hate the player, hate the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Par for the winter...at least for me....already a coating under paltry radar returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Waiting on 0z NAM cobb. Looks to be coming in line with the RGEM and euro. Potentially higher then the 6.7" it had on the 18z run. Snowstorms was right though. Looks like a small down tick in QPF. No widespread 0.75"+ like the last several runs. But I think trading that for more abundance of cold is something we'd all go for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Classic, weak kneed Alek is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 He'll still get his wagons of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snowstorms was right though. Looks like a small down tick in QPF. No widespread 0.75"+ like the last several runs. But I think trading that for more abundance of cold is something we'd all go for. Music to my ears.... 4km NAM has a similar idea as well. Its about time we have a shot at hitting the half foot mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro led the way and every single run since has followed...south and drier, including the GFS, NAM, RGEM, RAP, HRRR, etc. This isn't a single run quick impression...it's a clear trend. 3-6" from NW to SE across LOT's CWA looks appropriate. Don't hate the player, hate the game. True dat.We've seen several systems end up drier at the last minute already this season (See the last two waves of the hybrid parade as an example). Interestingly enough, in many of those cases the ECMWF was one of the driest and ended up being the most realistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Classic, weak kneed Alek is back. Classic or weak kneed, he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Classic or weak kneed, he's right. Didn't you see the Met from LOT's post earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Still a nice respectable snow. What a sweet winter for snow lovers!Yep. Sliding towards 55". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snowstorms was right though. Looks like a small down tick in QPF. No widespread 0.75"+ like the last several runs. But I think trading that for more abundance of cold is something we'd all go for. QPF and temperatures are a matter of now-casting but we've got the general picture in mind. Wheres TorontoBlizzard? He'd be going crazy right now, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LOT update FXUS63 KLOT 010221AFDLOTAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL821 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014.DISCUSSION...800 PM CSTONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. RAISED POPS AND SNOWAMOUNTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGERBANDING OCCURRING. NOTE HOWEVER...STILL THINKING STORM TOTAL SNOWAMOUNTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WERE NOT CHANGED AND STILL REMAININ THE 2 TO 6 RANGE. THE BANDING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHTHIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE IL/WI STATE LINE THIS EVENING AS THE SNOWIS ADVANCING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. NOW EXPECTING SNOW TOREACH THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT.EVERYTHING ELSE REMAINS ON TRACK INCLUDING THE ONGOING HEADLINES.NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED FEATURES FARTHER SOUTH AND/OR HINTEDAT LESS QPF...BUT AM HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES RIGHT NOW.THEREFORE LEFT WELL ENOUGH ALONE.JEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 QPF a couple days ago for this system was 1/2 of what it is showing now. A slight back off is not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Done snowing here on the east side, so it's a wrap other than a few scraps. But successful WAA snows here today. Very happy. It'll get washed away tomorrow, but beggars can't be choosers. Good luck to those up north, and keep your chins up. Should still be a pretty good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 QPF and temperatures are a matter of now-casting but we've got the general picture in mind. Wheres TorontoBlizzard? He'd be going crazy right now, I see him lurking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not going to get into the QPF debate. However, it seems that whenever a NW trend occurs, there is usually a slight SE correction a model run or 2 before the storm that usually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hey Alek.......catch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LAF is really teetering on the 00z NAM forecast soundings from late morning into early afternoon as a slug of heavier precip comes in. 00z run initialized a bit too warm here. A changeover to plain rain is inevitable but perhaps the timing can get pushed back a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Quad cities weighs in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL812 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 803 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014LATEST NAM IS TRENDING TOWARD VERIFICATION AND INITIALIZATION OFTOO MOIST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THIS WINTER FOR THE AMERICANSOLUTIONS. HAVE TRIMMED STORM SNOW AMOUNTS 10-15% MOST LOCATIONS WITHRISK OF ANOTHER 10 PERCENT OR MORE REDUCTION MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTSOF THE AREA BY OVERNIGHT CREW. FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST HIGHEST AMOUNTSOF 6 TO 7 INCHES (ISOLATED 8 INCH?) ROUGHLY ALONG A MEMPHIS MO TO SOUTHOF GALESBURG TO SOUTH OF HENNEPIN IL AXIS. UPDATE WITH NEW WSW OUTNEXT 30 MINUTES. WILL NOT CHANGE WARNING/ADVISORY SETUP FOR NOW ASHEAVIER PRECIPITATION FOR EVENT IS STILL 4-6 HOURS AWAY FOR OUR AREA.THIS SUGGESTS...~ 3 INCHES DBQ AREA...3-4 INCHES CID/IOW AREA AND MOSTLY4-6 INCHES FOR THE GREATER QUAD CITIES AREAS. MAIN ISSUE IS THIS ISAN OPEN WAVE MAKING ANY TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION TO BE M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The trend around here the whole Winter has been to not buy into the models with the higher QPF's and not to buy in to the N shifts on models as much. Its been that way around the DVN CWA the WHOLE Winter. I cannot for the life of me understand why the NWS or any private forecaster on TV hasn't noticed this. Clippers have trended N sure, but most synoptic oriented systems have been S. And the drying trend on models has been there all along. I told my clents yesterday, and friends, I expected 3 to maybe 4 inches here locally with perhaps 5-7" from Galesburg up to around the South burbs of Chicago. This call might even end up being a hair to high. Glad I stuck with it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well have fun with the storm y'all. Gotta get up super earlier for the flight to Atlanta tomorrow and probably won't check the forum for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 And just after my post I see the someone posted our local NWS discussion update which I hadn't seen yet. LOL they are finally catching on to the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LAF is really teetering on the 00z NAM forecast soundings from late morning into early afternoon as a slug of heavier precip comes in. 00z run initialized a bit too warm here. A changeover to plain rain is inevitable but perhaps the timing can get pushed back a tad. I saw that. Might make my drive into work a little more challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 True dat. We've seen several systems end up drier at the last minute already this season (See the last two waves of the hybrid parade as an example). Interestingly enough, in many of those cases the ECMWF was one of the driest and ended up being the most realistic... Yeah that's my thoughts exactly. Euro has nailed about every system for this immediate area within 48-60hrs, but that's obviously not the case for other areas off east, etc. Still sticking with my general 3-4" for here/QC. My exact call of 3.1" from late last night looking money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The trend around here the whole Winter has been to not buy into the models with the higher QPF's and not to buy in to the N shifts on models as much. Its been that way around the DVN CWA the WHOLE Winter. I cannot for the life of me understand why the NWS or any private forecaster on TV hasn't noticed this. Clippers have trended N sure, but most synoptic oriented systems have been S. And the drying trend on models has been there all along. I told my clents yesterday, and friends, I expected 3 to maybe 4 inches here locally with perhaps 5-7" from Galesburg up to around the South burbs of Chicago. This call might even end up being a hair to high. Glad I stuck with it though. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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