WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 thru 25 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=025 Still looks like a solid run with the NAM. I typically wouldn't want the NAM to be the model in my corner but this year I wouldn't count it out. Gives ORD >6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Major changes on the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro making a bid for its first win in a long time Got to make sure we have headaches for the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Off some of the farm fields here there are 6'+ drifts. It is so awesome driving by snow drifts taller then my vehicle everyday. Though surprisingly here I don't see bare ground in the fields!!! Some of the plowed snowbanks are high in certain areas along the side of major roads here where you can tell its from drifting, but obviously the street needs to be cleared. Out there in the country I can't imagine some of the scenes with the amount of snow and wind we have had this month. You should post some pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro making a bid for its first win in a long time you still look good for 6-7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's going to depend on radar trends I think. WAA snows will be a DAB (as expected) but the main event is clearly trending weaker/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 you still look good for 6-7 inches. way under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Still looks like a solid run with the NAM. I typically wouldn't want the NAM to be the model in my corner but this year I wouldn't count it out. Gives ORD >6" Looks like it'll be colder. Just hope it's not too much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 might be time to start aggressively trimming back those WSWings. They generally don't downgrade...So I'll say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like it'll be colder. Just hope it's not too much drier. Nam slightly further SE and cooler...thru 21 hours. Looks a bit drier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think DTX's AFD did a good job explaining why a southern solution is still quite possible. Them waiting until things set up before any warnings I think is the right decision since tomorrow is just Saturday. If we somehow manage to luck out and get little or no rain from this down here in Detroit I will be sure there is some kind of magical magnet set up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 way under way under http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030 whats this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM's still baby stepping it, but Detroit is at least now back on the edge of the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think DTX's AFD did a good job explaining why a southern solution is still quite possible. Them waiting until things set up before any warnings I think is the right decision since tomorrow is just Saturday. NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS A PREFERENCE FOR A FARTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK OF THE LOW GIVEN BOTH THE OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE AND THE SHEARING NATURE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADJUSTMENTS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z CYCLE ALSO SUGGESTED THAT AN OVER-AGGRESSIVE SIMULATION OF HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE ONCE-OBSERVED NW ADJUSTMENTS BY THE NWP. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM, ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTED HEIGHT FALLS TO BE WEAKER AND HAVE COME IN IN STRONG SUPPORT OF LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST REASONING. THE SHIFT WAS MOST NOTABLE IN THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WHICH NOW TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS TOLEDO. THE 18Z NAM HAS ALSO COME IN IN STRONG SUPPORT OF THIS FLATTER SOLUTION, SHIFTING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY TO THE HEART OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gonna cut down my original call at ORD from 5.5" down to 4.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Some of the plowed snowbanks are high in certain areas along the side of major roads here where you can tell its from drifting, but obviously the street needs to be cleared. Out there in the country I can't imagine some of the scenes with the amount of snow and wind we have had this month. You should post some pics! I'll try to take some tomorrow. I haven't thought of taken much because drive these dirt roads has been a slick challenge this winter. I have slid through interstection multiple times. I have start braking 3 mailboxes down from my house and I have still slid right by it a couple times I have to say though ... I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 way under No way. 6-8 easily for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think the Livingston crew (Roy and me) are all snow now. 5-9 Inches looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 No way. 6-8 easily for you Ignore him. At the first sign of model shifting, he cut and runs for the lowest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 surfaces have whitened under -SN was my south hunch from this morning the first thing I have gotten right about this event? or is it more of a matter of trimming QPF in the cold sector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think the Livingston crew (Roy and me) are all snow now. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam slightly further SE and cooler...thru 21 hours. Looks a bit drier.. 0.50"-0.75" through 6z/2 and still coming down. Not much drier. But 0c 2m line staying SE of us is a huge change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.50"-0.75" through 6z/2 and still coming down. Not much drier. But 0c 2m line staying SE of us is a huge change. Oddly enough GTA hitting 6" seems reasonable now. Funny how things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The latest guidance is not necessarily the best guidance. The 00z runs before the March 5th event last year backed off fairly significantly on qpf, only to be completely wrong. QPF is what the models do worst, so I highly doubt there's gonna be any downgrades based off a few runs of the NAM. The forcing parameters are what's important, not specific qpf totals. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Oddly enough GTA hitting 6" seems reasonable now. Funny how things change. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42650-january-30-february-2nd-wave-train-part-2/?p=2706761 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hmm...NAM trying to make things a little more interesting for LAF, other than solidly boring rain tomorrow...but especially for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.50"-0.75" through 6z/2 and still coming down. Not much drier. But 0c 2m line staying SE of us is a huge change. Yeah according to the Nam, the GTA gets 6-9" and that includes downtown which maybe on the lower end of that range, but still solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gonna cut down my original call at ORD from 5.5" down to 4.0" Still a nice respectable snow. What a sweet winter for snow lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The latest guidance is not necessarily the best guidance. The 00z runs before the March 5th event last year backed off fairly significantly on qpf, only to be completely wrong. QPF is what the models do worst, so I highly doubt there's gonna be any downgrades based off a few runs of the NAM. The forcing parameters are what's important, not specific qpf totals.Sent from my SCH-I535 Skilling same thing verbatim. Though it seems like a number of models have trended more toward a 4-6 inch fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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