mookiemike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Our excellent meteorologists from Mt. Holly have issued a snow map ( which I feel may be raised ), with KPHL as epicenter for a swath of 4-6". I believe as we get further soundings, and clarification of the disparate pieces of the storm, especially the SW energy and GOM moisture, it should turn to 6-8"....modestly, not the 8-10" I believe in. Cooling the column is paramount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The fact that the lower 10,000+ feet of the atmosphere will be composed mostly of liquid water clouds (temps -5C or higher) is not going to allow ratios to be higher than 10:1. Lower than that seems more realistic. Flakes will rimed out the yin-yang. I completely agree with you about ratios, maybe 10:1 at times but prob more like 7 or 8:1. I was speaking more about the mixing concerns. I guess what I was trying to say is I never really considered where the best lift was in the column other than whether or not it coincided with the dgz. If the lift is occurring say up around 500-400mb and temps are -20 to -30C, would large rates 'pull' some of this colder air down towards the sfc quicker than what the models depict, reducing the concern for rain/mix early on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So if the Euro is anything like the RGEM or NAM, do we toss the GFS? It seems to be the outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I completely agree with you about ratios, maybe 10:1 at times but prob more like 7 or 8:1. I was speaking more about the mixing concerns. I guess what I was trying to say is I never really considered where the best lift was in the column other than whether or not it coincided with the dgz. If the lift is occurring say up around 500-400mb and temps are -20 to -30C, would large rates 'pull' some of this colder air down towards the sfc quicker than what the models depict, reducing the concern for rain/mix early on? Well, generally, cooling is dynamic or evaporational. I haven't seen much study on the possibility of the flakes actually cooling the column because they were colder higher up. Given the large isothermal layer, my guess is it won't have a big effect compared to dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, generally, cooling is dynamic or evaporational. I haven't seen much study on the possibility of the flakes actually cooling the column because they were colder higher up. Given the large isothermal layer, my guess is it won't have a big effect compared to dynamic cooling. You're probably right Ray. I was thinking dynamic cooling coming from higher up where temps are colder would be better than if you're lift was down around 700mb but as you pointed out the very large isothermal layer will should negate this. Thanks for the insight! Looking forward to seeing how things pan out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 As they always say, "Rates will win the day" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ugghh, sun just broke though brightly. Already 46.4F.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going with 4"-8" for Bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The fact is the pattern features a jackpot for KPHL AFTER a warmup. The key to cooling down is the second cold front, now on the Pa/Ohio border, getting in fast enough for all snow or 90% snow, giving us another 6-8" event, with lollipops of 7-10" to the central jersey coast. It all depends if convective banding comes out of the energy currently draped across the SE , as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 hi-res NAM is the equal opportunity model of choice for philly metro. Assumes a 10:1 ratio which may be high http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DT going with widespread 4-8 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 EURO is wetter throughout the region, temps look about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Actually looks warmer from what I've seen/heard Edit: end result somehow looks okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not really diggin these current temps....50.3 currently w/a couple warming hours to go. Projected high was 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not really diggin these current temps....50.3 currently w/a couple warming hours to go. Projected high was 49. Meh, doesn't really matter, its all about the locations of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro Weatherbell maps give Philly 10-12" for tomorrow. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I might do a small storm chase 2morrow since I'm off from work, would you guys/mets. recommend anything in particular? I want a place that has a shot at a mesoscale 12"-er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro Weatherbell maps give Philly 10-12" for tomorrow. Nuts. Yes, WxBell maps are nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro Weatherbell maps give Philly 10-12" for tomorrow. Nuts. No f in way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I might do a small storm chase 2morrow since I'm off from work, would you guys/mets. recommend anything in particular? I want a place that has a shot at a mesoscale 12"-er How bout your back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I might do a small storm chase 2morrow since I'm off from work, would you guys/mets. recommend anything in particular? I want a place that has a shot at a mesoscale 12"-er I'd recommend some place with elevation to your west, maybe Paul's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'd recommend some place with elevation to your west, maybe Paul's house. off the top my head brookhaven also comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any1 got am empty guest room? I swear I'm not as crazy as I sound lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How bout your back yard With the northern trend today I'm fearing for NE Philly. I'd hate to have rain/sleet while 20 miles N has whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks Ray! a little elevation has not really been much factor in recent years but tomorrow with borderline temps could make a difference - of course if the banding is to the south or north won't matter.... I'd recommend some place with elevation to your west, maybe Paul's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 off the top my head brookhaven also comes to mind No No not Brookhaven in Delaware County Media is on par with them in terms of elevation Newtown Square or Radnor Delaware County right on the Chester County lines are the highest elevations here in Delco outside of just northwest of Granite Run Mall or NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wherever Lee measures.....best snows seem to follow!! off the top my head brookhaven also comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going with 3-6" now in se pa...final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Those wxBell maps are 10:1 ratios. Cut those back by 30% and that's more realistic. I see 4" - 8" Philly and central jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I remember an event back in the late 80's early 90's that had 55 degree temps before a similar event. That one snow 4-8" but on grassy surfaces only. Not one flake stuck to pavement. Was really weird to see. Looks like this event will have better rates though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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