chubbs Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2.5 total qpf lol do we divide by 3? Model has roughly 1.0 for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Model has roughly 1.0 for phl Yea not sure where he got 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Model has roughly 1.0 for phl is this a bad graphic? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014020212/nam_apcpn_us_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yea not sure where he got 2"2-4" in line with local mets. Major mixing issues at onset. We waste a lot of good qpf on slop. You just got nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Typical NAM weenie run just before a storm...likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2-4" in line with local mets. Major mixing issues at onset. We waste a lot of good qpf on slop. You just got nam'd My call from beginning is 2-4, I think I'm going to go 4-7" now...but I think wasting precip will be an issue, its going to be a nowcast type storm, luckily I'm in NE Philly not S lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My call from beginning is 2-4, I think I'm going to go 4-7" now...but I think wasting precip will be an issue, its going to be a nowcast type storm, luckily I'm in NE Philly not S lol. This storm is killer for me. The rain/snow line could be just north or just south of me. It's impossible to predict exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This storm is killer for me. The rain/snow line could be just north or just south of me. It's impossible to predict exactly where. A la more typical winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Somehow PHL will pull 8+ inches from this. You know it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Somehow PHL will pull 8+ inches from this. You know it will happen. Haha, if you took a mesh of all the data, you'd love Philly's spot. If we turn to snow quickly and it starts accumulating, that death band could put down 3" in a blink of an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haha, if you took a mesh of all the data, you'd love Philly's spot. If we turn to snow quickly and it starts accumulating, that death band could put down 3" in a blink of an eye.its all going to depend on when we flip over to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Somehow PHL will pull 8+ inches from this. You know it will happen. This. Philly has just been THE spot this winter. I feel you could take the 12z NAM snow map and have applied it to more than half the storms this winter and it would be very accurate. We should get a little revenge up here in Berks with the Tuesday night system. Certainly fun times ahead for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Rob damnit will you PM me your #, we need to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not really feeling this one. Air is warm at the onset, and being replaced by marginal cold. Best verticals are turnpike and points east, where the air is warmest. Even when the column is completely frozen, temperatures in the snow growth zone are really lackluster. I think .2 gets lost to rain, .2 gets lost to getting the roads cold, and what's left is falling when the sun is out. 8:1 ratios for the remaining .4-.5 QPF...thinking 2-4 area wide, little more in the Middlesex-Monmouth jackpot zone. This stinks of an underperformer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not really feeling this one. Air is warm at the onset, and being replaced by marginal cold. Best verticals are turnpike and points east, where the air is warmest. Even when the column is completely frozen, temperatures in the snow growth zone are really lackluster. I think .2 gets lost to rain, .2 gets lost to getting the roads cold, and what's left is falling when the sun is out. 8:1 ratios for the remaining .4-.5 QPF...thinking 2-4 area wide, little more in the Middlesex-Monmouth jackpot zone. This stinks of an underperformer to me.well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am feeling this one. Winter trends are underrated. Remember a couple of days ago this was a mostly MA threat. The trend this winter has been over-preforming storms, so this one should follow the same path. 4-8 inches with lolipops of 10+ probably for Monmouth County and Brookhaven Delaware County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The ARW which has been consistent with the Srefs on 1 inch QPF through PHL itself. Some of that will be lost, but once it turns to +sn, it will begin to accumulate fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs starts us as plain rain but goes over to snow by hour 30 after wasting a good deal of qpf. Sticking with 2-4" in extreme SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Can someone please explain why the nam link i posted shows 2.5 qpf ? It is for the period 12z today through 0z feb 4. Does it account for some of the following storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 fwarder that map is messed up, the scale is off or something.... Ralph while I think you're right about wasted precip, if that death band does change us to snow in time, we could accumulate really fast to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The ARW which has been consistent with the Srefs on 1 inch QPF through PHL itself. Some of that will be lost, but once it turns to +sn, it will begin to accumulate fast. "THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND". I am incomplete agreement, as Winter to Winter there is a jackpot zone, whether it got steered by the jet, or the meeting of two fronts. Certainly, a look at any Winter of recent note, as bad as last year, maintained that trend, to the end. I favor: "The trend is our friend.....until it finally ends. Have seen no synoptic earth shakers to buck the current Winter. KPHL will hit at least triple bars in a jackpot scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 fwarder that map is messed up, the scale is off or something.... Ralph while I think you're right about wasted precip, if that death band does change us to snow in time, we could accumulate really fast to make up for it. call me steve. And I completely agree with you...I'm just playing this one conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Have a feeling this will be an elevation special tomorrow AM - with locations over 500 ft asl accumulating snow at 32.0 while lower spots snow and 32.6 and do not accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks Highzenberg. Can you post the link to the NAM that you use. Imo,if your not under the heavier rates tomorow, you problay wont have any accumulation except on existing snow, mulch and grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks Highzenberg. Can you post the link to the NAM that you use. Imo,if your not under the heavier rates tomorow, you problay wont have any accumulation except on existing snow, mulch and grass. This is why I'm hoping the snow pack can survive through the day. So far so good. Any mixing issues for RDG per the 12 gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I noticed that the best omegas are a bit higher up than that usual ~700-600mb. I realize this may not be conducive for great ratios as temps in this layer are colder than the ideal -12 to -18C.. but I'm curious as to whether large vv's further up where it's much colder can translate(bring down) some of the colder temps down toward the surface quicker than the models depict in some of the heavier bands? My usually conservative self feels pretty good about this storm, probably because we've had such good luck all winter and it's just icing on the cake at this point. Anyhow, I like a 5-10 inch jackpot band somewhere in the northeast MD-Philly-central Jersey area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sounding at 12z for blm Nam S+ Gfs Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lee as always will have a little more than most in his backyard..... I am feeling this one. Winter trends are underrated. Remember a couple of days ago this was a mostly MA threat. The trend this winter has been over-preforming storms, so this one should follow the same path. 4-8 inches with lolipops of 10+ probably for Monmouth County and Brookhaven Delaware County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I noticed that the best omegas are a bit higher up than that usual ~700-600mb. I realize this may not be conducive for great ratios as temps in this layer are colder than the ideal -12 to -18C.. but I'm curious as to whether large vv's further up where it's much colder can translate(bring down) some of the colder temps down toward the surface quicker than the models depict in some of the heavier bands? My usually conservative self feels pretty good about this storm, probably because we've had such good luck all winter and it's just icing on the cake at this point. Anyhow, I like a 5-10 inch jackpot band somewhere in the northeast MD-Philly-central Jersey area. The fact that the lower 10,000+ feet of the atmosphere will be composed mostly of liquid water clouds (temps -5C or higher) is not going to allow ratios to be higher than 10:1. Lower than that seems more realistic. Flakes will rimed out the yin-yang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks to me based on satellite images our snowpack has a much better chance of surviving today's warm temps. Unless the clouds burn off (not looking likely) the sun is done for the day. How it effects the cool down tonight remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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