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Feb 3rd possible snow


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Still very concerned about monday and snow. Looks like 1000-500mb thicknesses do not support snow until almost 15z. This spells a lot of slop and low ratios to start once the turnover happens. I was gung ho on a general 3-6" this time yesterday but I am now leaning 2-4" based on those warm thicknesses to start this event. We waste almost .4 qpf on slop. Lets hope we can get that cold air in here faster.

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Wxsim with 6z data seems to see a lot of sleet tomorrow AM but has increased the liquid output to 0.80" for NW Chester County. Temps fall below freezing and stay there by 530am. Not sure I buy it but if correct it would mean some significant sleet accumulation followed by another couple inches of snow on top - this would mean 2 to 4" of snow/sleet combo before ending tomorrow PM.

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Wxsim with 6z data seems to see a lot of sleet tomorrow AM but has increased the liquid output to 0.80" for NW Chester County. Temps fall below freezing and stay there by 530am. Not sure I buy it but if correct it would mean some significant sleet accumulation followed by another couple inches of snow on top - this would mean 2 to 4" of snow/sleet combo before ending tomorrow PM.

2-4" seems reasonable right now based on mixing issues in the am.
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Not that past performance is going to promise future results, but most storms this year have trended significantly NW on models 48-72 hours prior to onset.  The final 6-12 hours, however, have often then shown a slight tick back to the SE.  Will see if this follows and keeps the area mostly frozen.

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