Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Based on qpf or some rain involved? Mix of both, I think we'll waste some QPF cooling the surface temps, we'll get accumulation if & when the heavy stuff comes for about 3-4 hours. You can see how at the end of the storm the GFS actually warms things up a bit as the heavy stuff starts to lighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 3 major storms in 7 days. dunno if you guys checked out total QPF, but it's 4" inches total within 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A shame 2 of them will be heavy rain for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Waaaaaay too warm for my liking in SNJ.same, welcome to my world....they sometimes forget we're part of the subforum as well....it looks great for the Philly crew....we will be enjoying our cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro is north. Looks like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks good, friend is telling me it is a bit warm for the city so they only get 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 OT EURO is much colder for midweek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam looks warmish to start no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam looks warmish to start no? Between 9z-12z it looks warm, maybe snow that doesn't stick, or sleet/ mix... but by 7am thats all snow and probably sticking. It looked colder than 12z to my eyes. Most of the precip we get before 12z is from the cold front anyway, the real stuff comes after dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah I was referring to 1000-500 thicknesses unsupportive of snow. I suppose if it comes down hard enough we flip to snow sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah I was referring to 1000-500 thicknesses unsupportive of snow. I suppose if it comes down hard enough we flip to snow sooner. I think once the heavy rates come in it will stick, It might be a situation where hypothetically if Philly is getting good rates they're snowing and accumulating while 10 miles N isn't...Just a thought... BTW RGEM looks real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BTW RGEM looks real good. Explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 still early in the AM and certainly not as dead as some other forums I frequent.... Yup it's not that dead. I for one worked all day then visited the parents.....first chance I had all day to post! This does look like our kinda storm (elevation) Someone on the next page made a post saying Philly could be getting good snowfall rates and accumulating (sticking) where 10 miles north they might not be. Well, if it's cold enough to snow in Philly it's sticking on my hill, that's for sure lol. These types of storms are more exiting to me for obvious reasons.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wintet storm watches issued for most of SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wintet storm watches issued for most of SE PA "and then changes to snow between 6 am and 10 am"....kinda a big window for the changeover....I guess 6am means 6"....10am means 3". Looks like a pretty quick thump either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I expect advisories and watches to move NW by morning..... quote name="Ralph Wiggum" post="2713522" timestamp="1391301750"]Wintet storm watches issued for most of SE PA Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs are a massive hit...wow. There's gotta be some big weenie members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The bufkit is interesting for ABE. We may get some snow out of this http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kabe&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=12&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs are a massive hit...wow. There's gotta be some big weenie members in there. Hey buddy what kinda qpf is it printing now for LV? I'm on mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs qpf 1" Philly .50" Allentown funny this type of gradient feels permanent now in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs are a massive hit...wow. There's gotta be some big weenie members in there. What is considered a massive hit please- winter storm criteria for the LV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What is considered a massive hit please- winter storm criteria for the LV?Looks like about 5-6" for the LV. The really big amounts are in Philly, NE MD, and DE, though, with up to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs are a massive hit...wow. There's gotta be some big weenie members in there. Yea...they even give me a good hit. 0 Z NAM should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Most years potential storms turn into duds...this year small nuisances turn into multiple/several inches if not more....go figure. Temps falling at a pretty decent clip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 watch issued for PHL metro into part of SNJ for 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any thoughts on what sort of ratios we're looking at? 10:1 or less? Despite higher qpf, accumulations may be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs are a massive hit...wow. There's gotta be some big weenie members in there. Here's a close-up for those who are interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0 Z am a good run for the PHL metro area. Looks like a solid 4 to max 8 event from Quakertown south to WilmingtonDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM was a bit weaker with precip rates & VVs on its northern boundary, wasn't the best of runs, but its just noise, will change each run until the storm starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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