snowwors2 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RAP was pretty bad this past week for us, to amped, the HRRR was pretty darn good. Here is the snow map through 15z tomorrow, more to come for you guys after this too. WOW that's like 10" by 10 AM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So mook.... Are you saying upper Dublin won't make it to 8 - 10"... If so, I totally disagree with your thinking IF Philly makes it to there!! I probably lived within a mile of you, on Fort Washington Ave. If you take the moment to READ, there are 100 IMBY predictions, all which nelieve living NW of Philly is the answer to temperature fears. WE ALL GET IN THE JACKPOT. In any thread I wrote. Don't be nervous was my point, whether CC or Upper Dublin or Yardley, its going to snow . Everyone is a winner..... except maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Mookie, again you post things that make little sense. Again, a post about a post, absent substance, content, or any scintilla of sense, as there are no contradictions posted. I guess you didn't like the post quoting physics, I mean, what does Science have to do with weather? You're a classic board stalker. Take your classic shots. You make me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ok, fair enough. I am not saying you will be wrong, I just think with the system as progged on the NAM it is going to be close at PHL and the rain/snow line will be close. Now, I, too, believe the column will cool if those precip rates on the N are correct. Mitch and the folks at Mt Holly agree. But, the question is If the NAM is correct and where those rates set up. Good luck Mookie! Hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I meant overdone, sorry. Wxbell maps have some unrealistic snow ratio. I usually ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I probably lived within a mile of you, on Fort Washington Ave. If you take the moment to READ, there are 100 IMBY predictions, all which nelieve living NW of Philly is the answer to temperature fears. WE ALL GET IN THE JACKPOT. In any thread I wrote. Don't be nervous was my point, whether CC or Upper Dublin or Yardley, its going to snow . Everyone is a winner..... except maybe..... We'll........."READ" I did and have been doing since about noon today and you clearly said the "epicenter" would be cc philly and then go on to say 8-10" for Philly....yes/no? Just saying/clarifying mook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ok, fair enough. I am not saying you will be wrong, I just think with the system as progged on the NAM it is going to be close at PHL and the rain/snow line will be close. Now, I, too, believe the column will cool if those precip rates on the N are correct. Mitch and the folks at Mt Holly agree. But, the question is If the NAM is correct and where those rates set up. Good luck Mookie! Hope you are right. Fair enough Hazwoper and a good man's argument. I understand your sentiments, and certainly respect Mitchell I I enjoy his forecasts from Mt. Holly and here. But putting aside anything but mesoscale conclusions, I think everyone is safe here, but with convective banding, it doesn't much care about being 20 miles NW or W of the Center of the City, it goes where the dynamics are best. That is my poor man's $.02 Lets come back tomorrow as allies in the obs thread. You might find I do know a little about the weather, though law and life-sciences are my areas of expertise. One a vocation, the other an avocation, leading to help find relief for lots of people with lumbar or lower extremity pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ^sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ^sounds good Lol....see you pulled your other reply to the mook miester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We'll........."READ" I did and have been doing since about noon today and you clearly said the "epicenter" would be cc philly and then go on to say 8-10" for Philly....yes/no? Just saying/clarifying mook! You can take the kid out of East Oak Lane, transport him 15 miles to my home with 3 names, 1. Fort Washington 2. Ambler 3. Upper Dublin My Philly friends thought I moved to Ireland. I consider the City, as I have lived in Center City, and Yardley and Upper Dublin to being one community, for a storm like this. I can't or won't deny, I had more snow to plow or shovel as a kid in Upper Dublin. I was just saying, that if 8-10" were my call, it would verify across all our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I have no idea what anyone is talking about but take it to the banter thread and leave this thread for actual discussion of the storm. Any red taggers want to comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Agreed...sorry... just some "idle chat" prior to gfs etc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Is it just me or are all the local TV outlets in danger of seriously under-forecasting this storm? Everyone at my Super Bowl party seemed to think we are getting 3 to 5 inches, when, based on the latest short-range guidance, we could double that. Considering that it will contain almost an inch of liquid, I think this could be a dangerous situation with people underestimating the severity of this storm. Edit: Shouldn't say all, Glenn seems to have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Latest HRRR has a swath of 6" from Allentown down to around Norristown/KOP at 11 am with snow still falling. Pottstown, Lansdale, and Doylestown are jackpot areas, with 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So south of KOP doesn't see 6"? That would be quite a jump north. I have to wait to see it on the NOAA website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 New gfs was a good run again. Red flag hoisted for higher totals from the city north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Latest HRRR has a swath of 6" from Allentown down to around Norristown/KOP at 11 am with snow still falling. Pottstown, Lansdale, and Doylestown are jackpot areas, with 8-12". Doylestown FTW!!! HRRR must like the RAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So south of KOP doesn't see 6"? That would be quite a jump north. I have to wait to see it on the NOAA website. They probably would if the run continued out past 15 hours..but it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I only have the national map and can't see. I do see heavy qpf. Looks like the fall line is the border between light and heavy accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My worry would be school administrators going to bed seeing WWAs and forecasts of 3-5". If it's not coming down hard early in the morning, I could see many school's staying open and scrambling to get kids home safely in lousy conditions later. Just trying to help my 15 year-old who is struggling to finish projects now and could use an extra day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Soundings have a warm layer just above 5000 at PHL. This is why I don't see them being jackpot. DYL looks good just after precip begins. Edit. Hope that shows the levels and temps. Doesn't seem to show up on iPad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HRRR continues north and wetter, now 6-8 in the city, 8-12 for all of Bucksco and Montco, with 12-18 jackpot over North Chesco RAP even wetter, 12-18 from N Chesco all the way to Western Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ironically it looks like I'm at risk of losing accumulation to sleet. Finally an event where nw cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The hi-res short term models look like the best precip is going to be juuuuust to my north. I'm in NW NC Co, and it looks like a rapid increase in precip from my area (1-3") to over a foot in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 3z HRRR coming in now is so far north that even Philly gets screwed. Northern Bucks/Montco cash in...1'+ easily for some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can you post that hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can you post that hrrr I wish I could, but it's from a paid site. Looks like an area of 10"+ from Allentown to Lansdale this run...likely overdone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I thought someone posted it in the midatlantic forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I wish I could, but it's from a paid site. Looks like an area of 1'+ from Allentown to Lansdale this run...likely overdone though. Off NWS site. I agree, most likely overdone, but man look at that cutoff. That's potentially an 8" difference within 5 to 10 miles. Worth mentioning, though, that the last frame still has most of the area under .5" to 1" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This tells the story. With the NAM 6+ the WWA should be upgraded to WWS in Lehigh County at the least https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/716/l19x.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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