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Feb 3rd event


Brian5671

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Just saw last night's Euro.  Wow.  The new GGEM looks decent for southern areas too.

Everything seems to depend on the strength of the little southern stream s/w that is progged to be near MO and AR on Sunday night.  And more importantly its interaction with several shortwaves in the northern stream.  A slight change in the orientation of the flow and the sharpness in the trof early on... say day 2.5... will make a big difference in how far north (by 100s of miles) and how intense the precip associated with this wave is.  My heart is rooting for a Euro-like solution but my head is predicting something closer to the GFS/NAM (or a hair north).  This looks to be the only wave for the next week or so where the southern stream trof axis is favorable for the east coast.  Unfortunately the wave interference is ugly and therefore the wave amplitude is minimal.

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12z GEFS don't look very exciting.  A few bring a little light QPF up to NYC.  Most are misses south.

Do you think its missing the strength of the SE ridge which will be prevalent all week and with 45 - 50 Sunday , it  suppresses this in the next  24 hours  ?  

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Do you think its missing the strength of the SE ridge which will be prevalent all week and with 45 - 50 Sunday , it  suppresses this in the next  24 hours  ?  

I'm hoping the GFS is a little too strong with the troffing over the Lakes and most importantly a little too weak with the shortwave south of New Mexico at 48hrs.  This southern stream shortwave, although weak, should have a Gulf connection!  If it is initially a little sharper than the the GFS is modeling it, the whole precip field could get much further north... like up into S IN, and OH.  That's what the Euro and a few of the SREF members showed.  I don't personally think the strength of the ridge in the Atlantic has much impact.  But of course the entire field of trofs and ridges are all connected... and a change in one affects the others somehow.

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I'm hoping the GFS is a little too strong with the troffing over the Lakes and most importantly a little too weak with the shortwave south of New Mexico at 48hrs.  This southern stream shortwave, although weak, should have a Gulf connection!  If it is initially a little sharper than the the GFS is modeling it, the whole precip field could get much further north... like up into S IN, and OH.  That's what the Euro and a few of the SREF members showed.  I don't personally think the strength of the ridge in the Atlantic has much impact.  But of course the entire field of trofs and ridges are all connected... and a change in one affects the others somehow.

Thank you .

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