JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Beautiful pic of Independence Hall Don!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If this was another winter..where the Euro was the king.. this thread would had been full of weenies. But even myself ..I'm also not that confident with how bad this model has been this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 One of you`re options is that it slides under ! . Monday snow or not will not determine the strength of Wed primary and where it secondaries . you keep saying if we sacrifice Monday , Wed winds up better , the 0z Euro put down 6 - 8 across the area and its the coldest of all the Wed guidance YanksFan27, on 31 Jan 2014 - 09:27 AM, said: I'm not doubting that the system for mid-week is going to cut. I thought I made that perfectly clear. But redevelopment off the coast is not out of the realm of possibilities. And a significant winter storm for a lot of the area isn't off the table either. If you want to salvage the middle of next week, you want the confluence to setup and keep everything suppressed until the energy arrives from the mid-west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're in a heap of trouble with the upcoming events...we are losing or have lost the -epo the pna is negative, nao is positive and in response we have a se ridge building. Not the best pattern if looking for a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm not doubting that the system for mid-week is going to cut. I thought I made that perfectly clear. But redevelopment off the coast is not out of the realm of possibilities. And a significant winter storm for a lot of the area isn't off the table either. If you want to salvage the middle of next week, you want the confluence to setup and keep everything suppressed until the energy arrives from the mid-west. Its 10 am , prob have plenty to argue about all day . Its just my opinion that regardless what happens Monday sunny skies or 6 inches of snow , I think Wed is going to rest on how deep the primary gets and need it to die S of PITT. Need a press through the lakes to starve it , and get a surface reflection started off the Delmarva not LI . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What's wrong with New Jersey having more snow than New York? Nothing at all. Sometimes winters work out that way. New York is doing quite well, too. To date, Albany is 3.5" above normal and New York City is 16.5" above normal. There have been some winters where Washington, DC has received more snowfall than New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Its 10 am , prob have plenty to argue about all day . Its just my opinion that regardless what happens Monday sunny skies or 6 inches of snow , I think Wed is going to rest on how deep the primary gets and need it to die S of PITT. Need a press through the lakes to starve it , and get a surface reflection started off the Delmarva not LI . I'm all for the Euro scenario, but it's a big outlier. It's likely blowing up the shortwave too much instead of shearing it out and shunting it south like most of the rest of the guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nothing at all. Sometimes winters work out that way. New York is doing quite well, too. To date, Albany is 3.5" above normal and New York City is 16.5" above normal. There have been some winters where Washington, DC has received more snowfall than New York City. 2009-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nothing at all. Sometimes winters work out that way. New York is doing quite well, too. To date, Albany is 3.5" above normal and New York City is 16.5" above normal. There have been some winters where Washington, DC has received more snowfall than New York City. Don't remind me of the winter of 09-10. That was really hard to watch as the mid-atlantic got dumped on. We made up for it the next two winters though in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're in a heap of trouble with the upcoming events...we are losing or have lost the -epo the pna is negative, nao is positive and in response we have a se ridge building. Not the best pattern if looking for a big snowstorm. Yeah I'm not gonna lie but things have definitely turned not so great. I checked the NAO and AO indices and they are expected to soar, the AO especially soaring like that is usually a very bad sign. The EPO will continue to be negative, but we're putting a lot of pressure on it to bail us out when the other indices are unfavorable. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Maybe winter is past it's peak and coming to an end? One thing that the long range ensembles are hinting at is that the Polar Vortex will move northward towards the pole. I think the end of February ends up fairly seasonable in terms of temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 very likely but many are in denial from what I've read To be honest, I think winter is nearing its' peak too. The LR Models are detecting that and my weather sensors aren't too excited either. I think we have until at least February 15th-20th. That's IMO. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 One thing that the long range ensembles are hinting at is that the Polar Vortex will move northward towards the pole. I think the end of February ends up fairly seasonable in terms of temperatures. I think the whole month ends up fairly seasonable overall. +1/-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nothing at all. Sometimes winters work out that way. New York is doing quite well, too. To date, Albany is 3.5" above normal and New York City is 16.5" above normal. There have been some winters where Washington, DC has received more snowfall than New York City. we are in A snow hole in between albany and ny city ,,,hudson valley area,kingston,,,,hopefully its our turn soon?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 To be honest, I think winter is nearing its' peak too. The LR Models are detecting that and my weather sensors aren't too excited either. I think we have until at least February 15th-20th. That's IMO. Sent from my HTC PH39100 Winter seemed to end for me today when we finally reached 40 degrees. Reaching 40 degrees after having highs in the teens and twenties for more than in a week is NOT a good sign no matter how anyone cuts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't remind me of the winter of 09-10. That was really hard to watch as the mid-atlantic got dumped on. We made up for it the next two winters though in a big way. You mean one winter? 2011-12 sucked. And 2009-10 was still a good winter. Everyone had at least 3 6"+ events and 2 12"+ storms. Not sure why complain about the December storm. 2/6 was awful for us yes but didn't ruin the winter since I got 17" the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Winter seemed to end for me today when we finally reached 40 degrees. Reaching 40 degrees after having highs in the teens and twenties for more than in a week is NOT a good sign no matter how anyone cuts it. 40 is practically normal and we're coming off a pretty unprecedentedly cold month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't remind me of the winter of 09-10. That was really hard to watch as the mid-atlantic got dumped on. We made up for it the next two winters though in a big way. 2009-10 saw 51.4" snow in NYC and 47.9" in EWR. 2010-11 was a great winter. 2011-12 was a terrible one (exceptionally warm with a noted lack of snowfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 40 is practically normal and we're coming off a pretty unprecedentedly cold month. Meh, 40 degrees feels like a huge warm-up relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Meh, 40 degrees feels like a huge warm-up relatively speaking. For sure, but I look at it as a temporary thaw, not the end of winter. Though it could be, I'm sure we'll have at least one more good cold snap and at least one or two snow events, even if we don't get the HECS many were hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS coming in slightly north of 6z. Not going to be like the Euro though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Winter seemed to end for me today when we finally reached 40 degrees. Reaching 40 degrees after having highs in the teens and twenties for more than in a week is NOT a good sign no matter how anyone cuts it. Look at the average temperature for NYC at this time of year and then re-think this statement. It seems the recent cold stretches have spoiled some. People have such short term memories when it comes to the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS looks just like the NAM, no surprises here. Maybe a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Look at the average temperature for NYC at this time of year and then re-think this statement. It seems the recent cold stretches have spoiled some. People have such short term memories when it comes to the weather. Yeah January has been quite the anomaly. We've had colder months but when you take out the mid month thaw its even that much more impressive. 13 days of -10 or better departures. 8 days with single digit lows. 2 major snow events taking place below 20 degrees. These are like once a decade type occurrences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS looks just like the NAM, no surprises here. Maybe a tad north. GFS is moving in right direction - a little north. It will get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I cant post it for some reason but check the GFS VV hour 78 , that's north of its 6z and the NAMs 12z Guidance . The slightest adjustment of the pressing trough make you see what the Euro is seeing . This is not dead IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I cant post it for some reason but check the GFS VV hour 78 , that's north of its 6z and the NAMs 12z Guidance . The slightest adjustment of the pressing trough make you see what the Euro is seeing . This is not dead IMO Im going for a 3-4" event for LI. Anything more its a bonus in my opinion paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GFS had noticeable improvements earlier on in the run, but ended up quite similar to the 6z run by storm time. Still, a positive to hang our hats on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Im going for a 3-4" event for LI. Anything more its a bonus in my opinion paul The GFS and the NAM are South of the Euro , the GFS maybe south as per its tendency , but its been good all year so I see that . The NAM is much better inside 48 hours , If the Euro at 1 looks like it did last nite , then I would expect the GFS to come N and its precip field to catch up to its upward motion map. Just not sure who`s handling the speed of the trough correctly .The answer is in that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My gosh, the GGEM is really far NW, it looks like the 00z ECMWF. It's a pretty big hit from I-78 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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