WeatherX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro ens were south of the op and by a significant margin. Ah, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And the gfs isn't? There's nothing to really suppress this as the +NAO continues to rise so I see no reason for it not to trend further north in time. It certainly is - in the opposite direction (South). To me, take a blend and the Southern areas are most likely, atm, to cash in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 taking out the two extremes (Euro and GFS), I like the same areas in snj to best with this storm, with a very tight cut off s/e of the city - similar to this mondays storm, but perhaps a tick north bringing more snows into SNJ perhaps up to CNJ.. just my initial thinking.. one thing im quite positive of is that the EURO is too far north... we shall see if it was leading the guidance or simply wrong again this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 A good discussion, IMO. The development of a wave along the front is quite different from the northern stream impulses on which the Euro has often struggled this winter. The ECMWF also has support. The idea that something could develop along the frontal boundary appears more likely than not. The details as to where it develops and tracks still have a lot of uncertainty. You can see a pretty steep decline in the PNA along with a impressive flex of the southeast ridge, which lends some credence to what the Euro is thinking with the track for Monday. Hopefully it will be correct this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The SREF's are a tick NW of 03z but it's nothing to really get excited about. Probably a few amped up members but the majority look south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 taking out the two extremes (Euro and GFS), I like the same areas in snj to best with this storm, with a very tight cut off s/e of the city - similar to this mondays storm, but perhaps a tick north bringing more snows into SNJ perhaps up to CNJ.. just my initial thinking.. one thing im quite positive of is that the EURO is too far north... we shall see if it was leading the guidance or simply wrong again this winter.. euro ens are mostly south so I agree with the op euro being too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean may not be as wet as the OP, but it certainly isn't dry either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean may not be as wet as the OP, but it certainly isn't dry either. The 0z EC ENS was farther north and wetter than last run. But both Euro op and ensemble guidance have been too amplified with coastal systems of late. So I can't trust too much, right now without other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nam is rolling in....this should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SREF? Here's a close-up: The spread is still fairly large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's a close-up: The spread is still fairly large. once again, looks pretty consistent that south of NYC will do best with this set up like several we've seen this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 once again, looks pretty consistent that south of NYC will do best with this set up like several we've seen this winter... What a winter new jersey is having. They are like the snow capital of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 once again, looks pretty consistent that south of NYC will do best with this set up like several we've seen this winter... Odds probably favor that scenario. At this time range, a solution between the ECMWF ensembles and operational ECMWF might make reasonable sense. Higher confidence in accumulating snowfall exists from central New Jersey southward with lesser confidence closer to the fringes of the possible event. The spread in the SREFs hints that there is at least opportunity even for NYC and its nearby suburbs to pick up some accumulations, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Odds probably favor that scenario. At this time range, a solution between the ECMWF ensembles and operational ECMWF might make reasonable sense. Higher confidence in accumulating snowfall exists from central New Jersey southward with lesser confidence closer to the fringes of the possible event. The spread in the SREFs hints that there is at least opportunity even for NYC and its nearby suburbs to pick up some accumulations, but we'll see what happens. VV on last nite`s 0z run was more favorable at this time . Don't think the NAM will look like the Euro . But once to Wed I don't think a shunted look with this system helps the midweek system , I think that has to cut regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z NAM is horrendous...south and shears it all apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z NAM is horrendous...south and shears it all apart. The energy involved is actually fairly amplified but it gets squashed by the strong confluent flow to the north. We sacrifice this one for bigger and better things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM is only reliable within 24 hours - so forget its output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z NAM is horrendous...south and shears it all apart. yeah and everyone will start claiming its NAM in LR, but it actually hasnt been terrible this winter in its longer range.. and just look at its trends against itself, not against any other model.. EURO is pretty much standing along with how far north it takes this and the ensembles dont even agree with its own op there.. should we take NAM verbatim... absolutely not.. but was much weaker and certainly didnt take any steps in the right direction.. had NAM showed great steps in a favorable direction for this sub-forum, i guarantee it wouldnt just be thrown out, esp when its not so far off from other guidance.. in fact - closer than the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The energy involved is actually fairly amplified but it gets squashed by the strong confluent flow to the north. We sacrifice this one for bigger and better things to come. How so? The GFS already squashes this event but gives us mostly rain for the next 2 events. The Euro brings the snow furthest north of any of the models and yet keeps us colder for the midweek storm than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The energy involved is actually fairly amplified but it gets squashed by the strong confluent flow to the north. We sacrifice this one for bigger and better things to come. Like a couple lakes cutters Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow these models suck this year. They should just discontinue all the models until 24 hours before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The energy involved is actually fairly amplified but it gets squashed by the strong confluent flow to the north. We sacrifice this one for bigger and better things to come. Last nites Euro printed out 6 to 8 just NW and into the city , you think by having this go to the South increases you`re chances of what ? This has nothing to do with Wed storm , the speed of the trough that pushes this east is puling N by wed, its not blocked up . Wed system goes NEG tilted in the SW the SE RIDGE IS there day 5 , IT HAS TO CUT . You keep peddling this idea that if this gets squashed it will create confluence and it COULD ROLL UNDER . Nonsense . Wed R/S will be determined if the Primary dies in Beckley or Buffalo When and where this secondaries . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What a winter new jersey is having. They are like the snow capital of the country. I agree. Last winter saw NYC come close to having a big season and many of its suburbs finished well above normal in snowfall. Philly and central NJ missed out. This winter is different. Even as I expect NYC to reach 30" and possibly 40" seasonal snowfall, Philadelphia and central NJ should do better. FWIW, the early December snowstorm and snowfalls in Philadelphia may have provided the first "warning shot" of a big winter there. Messages 714 and 715 in the Philadelphia medium-term thread (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39838-mediumlong-range-thread/page-21) discussed the potential. Furthermore, what Rainshadow (Tony) said in #715 about another larger storm for Philadelphia also verified nicely as Philadelphia received 9.0" on 1/2-3 and 13.5" on 1/21-22. Below is a photo from Philadelphia on 12/8 when I was there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I agree. Last winter saw NYC come close to having a big season and many of its suburbs finished well above normal in snowfall. Philly and central NJ missed out. This winter is different. Even as I expect NYC to reach 30" and possibly 40" seasonal snowfall, Philadelphia and central NJ should do better. FWIW, the early December snowstorm and snowfalls in Philadelphia may have provided the first "warning shot" of a big winter there. Messages 714 and 715 in the Philadelphia medium-term thread (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39838-mediumlong-range-thread/page-21) discussed the potential. Furthermore, what Rainshadow (Tony) said in #715 about another larger storm for Philadelphia also verified nicely as Philadelphia received 9.0" on 1/2-3 and 13.5" on 1/21-22. Below is a photo from Philadelphia on 12/8 when I was there: That December 8th storm was a big surprise. I don't think anyone expected that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What a winter new jersey is having. They are like the snow capital of the country. What's wrong with New Jersey having more snow than New York? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As with the other events that trended under 48 hrs, I'm expecting this one to do the same though you want more separation between this and the storm ahead of it or it would end up further south. Nam is worthless beyond 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This idea that Wed system is some how not going to cut because this system misses is wrong IMO the Coldest of all the guidance is the Euro , the Ridge backs in so WED has to cut , we have to count on and earlier death of the primary , this does not come to the EC if the trough is Neg tilted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What's wrong with New Jersey having more snow than New York? He never said there was anything nothing wrong with it. He made an obs. Geesh CNJ and SNJ have been doing really good compared to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This idea that Wed system is some how not going to cut because this system misses is wrong IMO the Coldest of all the guidance is the Euro , the Ridge backs in so WED has to cut , we have to count on and earlier death of the primary , this does come to the EC if the trough is Neg tilted . It has nothing to do with cutting or not cutting and everything to do with cutting and redeveloping off the coast with enough time to bring a nice winter storm to a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 One of you`re options is that it slides under ! . Monday snow or not will not determine the strength of Wed primary and where it secondaries . you keep saying if we sacrifice Monday , Wed winds up better , the 0z Euro put down 6 - 8 across the area and its the coldest of all the Wed guidance It has nothing to do with cutting or not cutting and everything to do with cutting and redeveloping off the coast with enough time to bring a nice winter storm to a lot of the area. YanksFan27, on 31 Jan 2014 - 09:27 AM, said: I see this going one of three ways. The first scenario follows the 12z ECMWF. Good blocking locks in the arctic high and forces redevelopment. Second option is the high slides east and the system cuts. Third option is the energy slides under the ridge. Big hit for the SE states, suppression city up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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