PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 CNJ 4- 6 EPA through NNJ - KNYC - Westchester 6 plus Lower Hudson Valley looks around 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 1 inch gets to albany lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Guy on the AccuWeather forum just posted a Euro map with 3-6" snow across almost all of Central/Northern NJ and NYC Metro/LI/Hudson Valley etc. He's got 14,000 posts, so I'm guessing he's not a troll and I like his comment of, "this ought to wake up this thread." Not sure if it's cool to link to another forum, so I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 About 4-5" of snow for Putman County. CNJ 4- 6 EPA through NNJ - KNYC - Westchester 6 plus Lower Hudson Valley looks around 4 Good stuff...thanks. Hopefully the Euro is back on its game for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is pretty funny. Seems all the events this year are meant to appear 1-2 days before verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What would the timing of this be during the day Monday or Mon night- Tues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Monday's h5 maps are almost identical to Feb 8 1994...its uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What would the timing of this be during the day Monday or Mon night- Tues? Yea Monday afternoon start time or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Monday's h5 maps are almost identical to Feb 8 1994...its uncanny. clearly the two winters share many similarities. looks like Monday's storm could bring ~6" per the 00z EURO, and the improvements to the storm afterwards were also dramatic (though still icy). February may be NYC's snowiest month this winter, which would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There is still little support from the GEFS...only 3-4 members are north of the Op...many have no system at all...really don't know what to believe on this one....the 03Z SREFs look very wet as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM coming in more south than 0z, misses most of our area to the south on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM coming in more south than 0z, misses most of our area to the south on this runLol yes....and euro will prob cave next run. Very interesting that euro went with the storm at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Big hit midatlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol yes....and euro will prob cave next run. Very interesting that euro went with the storm at 0z you are taking the nam over the euro at more than 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you are taking the nam over the euro at more than 48 hours? This time, yeah, because it falls in line with the general consensus. Euro doesn't right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This time, yeah, because it falls in line with the general consensus. Euro doesn't right now even though the euro has been shaky this winter and the nam occasional sniffs stuff out in the lr i see that as a "red flag" that the general consensus is wrong..... not to mention the srefs not agreeing with the nam makes it even more suspect imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mount holly THEN CONFIDENCE GETS EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT INTO MON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VLY ON MON. THE ECMWF, CMC AND NAM/WRF ALL WANT TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT TO SOME EXTENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND BRING IT EWD/NEWD. THE GFS, AS IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS A STRONGER HIGH AND BRINGS IT FURTHER E AND IS, THEREFORE COMPLETELY DRY AS IT SUPPRESSES EVERYTHING FURTHER S. ATTM, IT IS THE OUTLIER AND BEING IGNORED. NONETHELESS, WITH THIS WINTER`S PENCHANT FOR LARGE HIGHS IT CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER, WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLN BRINGING A WAVE, WHICH WOULD IMPACT MAINLY SRN AREAS, HAVE KEPT CHC POPS. THE ECMWF NOW HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE. THIS, IN TURN BRINGS THE PRECIP FURTHER N. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THAT TREND CONTINUES BEFORE GOING IN THAT DIRECTION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is difficult to ignore. EPS mean and Euro control for Monday....this would be quite the approvable sneak attack, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Latest disco from Upton. GFS tossed. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL NOT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THEAREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AS SUCH IS ANOUTLIER...SO IT WAS NOT USED TO DETERMINE WEATHER AND POPS IN THATTIME FRAME. USED A BLEND OF THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENTECMWF/NAM/SREF/CMC INSTEAD.SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONTAPPROACHING FROM THE N/W AND A PASSING 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTCHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERSISTENT LOW LEVELWARM ADVECTION SHOULD MEAN THE LOWS OCCUR IN THE EVENING HOURS ANDTHEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH WARMINGLOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...MEANS SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT RAIN OVERTHE TRI-STATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POCKETS OF FREEZINGRAIN OVER ORANGE COUNTY UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZINGDURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOW POPS AND SPOTTY NATURE OFTHE ZR - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO REFER TO IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE ANON-DIURNAL TREND BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM ANDECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN EARLY SUNDAY IN WAKE OFAFOREMENTIONED PASSING 700 HPA SHORTWAVE...THEN SOME ISOLATEDSHOWERS WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MAINLYTHE MID-UPPER 40S - A TAD COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS ISCONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH ABLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THECOAST AND 925 HPA INLAND.THERE ARE BEGINNING TO BE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COASTAL LOW COULDIMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS BY FAR THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITHTHIS SYSTEM - AND LACKING SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE SIDED MOREWITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM/00Z CMC WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE ASLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THESOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE N1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE S 1/2 MONDAY.THIS IS DONE BY BLENDING NAM AND ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES.IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE COLDER NAM/CMC SOLUTION DOVERIFY...WOULD EXPECT ALL SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE. FOR NOWTHINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD TOP OUT IN THE ADVISORY LEVELRANGE...HOWEVER IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF ENDS UP PANNINGOUT...THEN COULD SEE SNOW TOTALS APPROACHING WARNING LEVELS.CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER IS NOT HIGH RIGHT NOW - 20 PERCENT OR LESS.IT SHOULD BE NOTED...AGAIN...THAT THE GFS HAS NO PRECIPITATIONACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUTDRY CONDITIONS IN THAT TIME FRAME - BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISVERY LOW - 10 PERCENT OR LESS.DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY - WITHASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Latest disco from Upton. GFS tossed. A good discussion, IMO. The development of a wave along the front is quite different from the northern stream impulses on which the Euro has often struggled this winter. The ECMWF also has support. The idea that something could develop along the frontal boundary appears more likely than not. The details as to where it develops and tracks still have a lot of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euro was really far north and amped up last night with 0.7"+ liquid that falls mostly as frozen precipitation across Northern NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euro was really far north and amped up last night with 0.7"+ liquid that falls mostly as frozen precipitation across Northern NJ and NYC. Indeed. An outlier as of now given the GFS won't budge (but is being tossed in discussions), the GGEM is still about 50-100 miles South w/ the heavy stuff, the NAM is a whiff (but the NAM in the long range). The only support you can somewhat see is the SREFs. To me, the Euro is about to make a comeback this week. It's started to do better this past weekend and I think the King may emerge the victor again by the end of next weekend. While this event may not be AS amplified as the 0z, I'd be rather surprised to not see the other models trend towards it for Monday's event. It's colder for the mid week as well, thinking that it sees the lower level cold better... Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The trajectory of this along the front seems a hit for at least our Southern areas... Let's see if the Euro at 0z moves this North later this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 With southern stream driven storms the EURO notoriously does better than the GFS. So im more inclined personally to believe the euro or atleast give it good weight when blending models in a pattern like this. Yes i do know the EURO has been, no better way to put this..... a paper weight this winter but i feel this is its comfort zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro ens were south of the op and by a significant margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The trajectory of this along the front seems a hit for at least our Southern areas... Let's see if the Euro at 0z moves this North later this afternoon... They're just interpreting the same model output that we are. And we have Earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro ens were south of the op and by a significant margin.[/quoteHaven't looked yet....south for the Monday system too? If so, we don't get much. I personally feel it's more of a SNJ south storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro ens were south of the op and by a significant margin.[/quoteHaven't looked yet....south for the Monday system too? If so, we don't get much I am referring to the Monday system. Someone here posted the images, maybe on the last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro ens were south of the op and by a significant margin. Not surprised. The Op seemed an outlier to most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not surprised. The Op seemed an outlier to most other guidance. And the gfs isn't? There's nothing to really suppress this as the +NAO continues to rise so I see no reason for it not to trend further north in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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