IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Save the NWS bashing. They don't live and die with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Three Words: Winter Storm Warning Upton disagrees just issued WWA 3-5 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe because they are doing more than just looking at how muxh each model spits out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Welcome to the party NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe because they are doing more than just looking at how muxh each model spits out.... Im pretty sure mt holly will go a warning for you…ur area will do very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Save the NWS bashing. They don't live and die with the NAM. Well the EURO is pretty much similar!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And here comes the 4km NAM going HAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Upton's map has .5-.7" of liquid so either we lose some to rain/melting or ratios will be like 8:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 unfortunately for UPTON they are probably going to issue a Winter Storm Warning at the last minute in the Monday AM package about 3:30 am while everyone is sleeping especially if the models hang on to the higher amounts at 0Z have seen them do this before - ultra conservative ! Lets see if Mount Holly will extend the Warnings further north - that would make Upton look foolish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Good lift still hanging back over NYC/NJ at hour 24...looks like weak/non-classic ccb development Any convection here ? The lift from 2 days ago was the signal. Great banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Save the NWS bashing. They don't live and die with the NAM. Easy big guy. The NAM, Euro, SREF and all sorts of short range models are spitting out amounts that seem to warrant a warning, especially given the heavy travel in the area tomorrow. We're not bashing the NWS when we opine that a Warning is warranted. Fact is, who cares. It's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM looks great for you guys.. I show .8 for you, with .9 near Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mt. Holly point and click updated...looks like they are going for 3 to 5 through all of central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Easy big guy. The NAM, Euro, SREF and all sorts of short range models are spitting out amounts that seem to warrant a warning, especially given the heavy travel in the area tomorrow. We're not bashing the NWS when we opine that a Warning is warranted. Fact is, who cares. It's going to snow. Its safe to say some precip will be wasted at the onset. Its in the 50's right now near the coast. We have all seen this show before. 3-5" in and around immediate NYC metro is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 .75" of QPF into EWR on the 4km NAM... 1.3KM NAM and RGEM coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mt. Holly point and click updated...looks like they are going for 3 to 5 through all of central NJ. well they are not believing the higher totals and or they are going for alot of mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Its safe to say some precip will be wasted at the onset. Its in the 50's right now near the coast. We have all seen this show before. 3-5" in and around immediate NYC metro is a good call. That's cool. I just think we should be able to say whether we think a warning is warranted based on model guidance --- just as you can agree with NWS. Fact is, at least for my area, NWS has been unreal this year w/ their forecasted amounts --- even when some guidance was calling for higher amounts. So ---we shall see. Again, however, it's gonna snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 4km NAM has 40 dbz reflectivity's from SE PA to NE NJ during the height of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ok to be fair to Upton they do mention higher amounts are possible - so they left the door open also don't like that mention of possible power outages - ugh URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ..ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-176>179- 030415- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD- WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT AND LOWER 30S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD COMMENCE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND END BY EARLY EVENING. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE WET SNOW MAY ADD EXTRA WEIGHT TO TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z WRF-NMM is loaded with moisture from CNJ on south. City still sees .5" Doesn't compare to the 1.2" in South Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 the NWS are doing the right thing IMO, 3-5 with locally higher amounts from NYC proper to points east is a good forecast that would cover the bases the right way I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 the NWS are doing the right thing IMO, 3-5 with locally higher amounts from NYC proper to points east is a good forecast that would cover the bases the right way I think The public doesn't know the difference anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z WRF-NMM is loaded with moisture from CNJ on south. City still sees .5" Doesn't compare to the 1.2" in South Jersey Hi res NAM snow maps show the jackpot almost through the city....SNJ not much snow at all. Rain/mix there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If I lived in Southeast NJ I would be really worried about a significant amount of taint from this system. The high resolution forecast models are showing the 925mb low passing overhead there and during heavy precipitation the temperatures actually increase from 0.5 to 1.0 at that level. The 925mb low doesn't really close until it passes southeast of there, and by that time the best lift for heavy precipitation is streaming off the coast. I think areas Southeast of MT Holly and along the SE New Jersey shore could be really disappointed. It is easy to ignore this when looking at the models but it doesn't look very good there. Long Island looks to get really lucky with this system as the front sags just south of that latitude and the 925mb low is far enough south so that the wind direction helps to avoid any taint at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hi res NAM snow maps show the jackpot almost through the city....SNJ not much snow at all. Rain/mix there I'm referring to the WRF-NMM, completely different core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If I lived in Southeast NJ I would be really worried about a significant amount of taint from this system. The high resolution forecast models are showing the 925mb low passing overhead there and during heavy precipitation the temperatures actually increase from 0.5 to 1.0 at that level. The 925mb low doesn't really close until it passes southeast of there, and by that time the best lift for heavy precipitation is streaming off the coast. I think areas Southeast of MT Holly and along the SE New Jersey shore could be really disappointed. It is easy to ignore this when looking at the models but it doesn't look very good there. Long Island looks to get really lucky with this system as the front sags just south of that latitude and the 925mb low is far enough south so that the wind direction helps to avoid any taint at all. I think there could be a period of hours where literally PHL is seeing +SN while Deptford is seeing IP or even rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm referring to the WRF-NMM, completely different core. eastnmm.pcpnetot48.gif Sorry, ready that wrong....and yep just over 0.25" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think there could be a period of hours where literally PHL is seeing +SN while Vineland is seeing IP or even rain. I agree. The other issue is that the dynamic cooling is going to be localized into the heavy bands, which likely will be running just to the northwest of where the frontal boundary is set up. So that means that Southeast NJ may even get screwed out of that aspect of the system, with the best frontogenic forcing northwest of them. This is probably why the models are really insistent on keeping the warm layer there as the system passes to the south. Somebody from PHL to NE NJ is going to get 8", too. It's just a matter of where the best dynamics set up. It will be hard to pinpoint this until tomorrow morning. Or until the almighty HRRR tells us what we need to know. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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