weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Who do you think you should believe? Well I tend to think I rain here most of the time, way more than I'd like. The folks here jump back and forth too. It'a great pattern one day, it's alousy pattern the next...and now we have a potentially good storm Monday when a couple days ago it was looking like 1-3 and rain. So really, I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 15z SREF I'd look for the NAM to be a good deal juicer when it rolls out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There are some wacky SREF numbers out on WB for KNYC KBLM . Does anyone have those 2 off EWALL. Not gona use the aforementioned site this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREF bumped north again...by 40-50 miles. That was almost a lock with the NAM coming north. Sigh, I'm going to miss this one. Flying out from JFK to L.A. for a business trip tomorrow morning at 7 a.m. and coming back Wednesday at 11:30 pm. Going to miss the Wednesday storm too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This should be about Public awareness and safety first not over some football game! Which IS the case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So if the precip bumps north, is there an expectation that the r/s line will bump north as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That was almost a lock with the NAM coming north. Sigh, I'm going to miss this one. Flying out from JFK to L.A. for a business trip tomorrow morning at 7 a.m. and coming back Wednesday at 11:30 pm. Going to miss the Wednesday storm too! hey maybe you will have some excitement out there - how about a major earthquake ? Anyways - the SREFS have bumped north as just reported - how does that effect snow amounts and the rain/ice/snow line ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Total brain fart and forgot the Hi-Res NAM Fire Nest (1.34km?) is being run over the tri-state for the Super Bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We really shouldn't be too surprised the QPF went up since the gulf is very much involved and localized amounts up to a foot are not out of the question. I'm still a little concerned about the temps though as sometimes they drop off a bit more slowly than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is how I like to start my Monday mornings... (By not actually having to start them) 4KM NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So if the precip bumps north, is there an expectation that the r/s line will bump north as well? The 850s crash south with the incoming precip so I doubt it. I don't think rain will be a problem unless you're south of Long Beach Island. It'll probably start as nonaccumulating white-rain, but the heavy rates will change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 we are within 24 hours of start time. we are under the temporal umbrella for a warning Said the same thing a few pages ago. And even if they're not >50% confident in 6" or more in the counties north of I-195 in 12 hrs (warning criterion), then they absolutely should issue WWAdvisories for 3-6", so that the public knows we're in for at least a moderate snowfall starting before rush hour tomorrow. They can always upgrade to warnings tonight or after precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well guys....newest RAP run puts heavy banding over us at 7am tmrw morning an we look in the sweet spot ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Out of curiousity, how good is the RUC? Looks very potent, but I don't know much about it's accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Out of curiousity, how good is the RUC? Looks very potent, but I don't know much about it's accuracy. Far out it's not that good-it gets better within 6-9 hrs I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am sure with the usual 3pm forecast package OKX will hoist WWA or Warnings for the area. Hopefully the message gets out before the SuperBowl & the public gets some heads up for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well guys....newest RAP run puts heavy banding over us at 7am tmrw morning an we look in the sweet spot ! It seems unusually far north, how accurate is it in this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Far out it's not that good-it gets better within 6-9 hrs I'd say. They seem to have a north and west bias beyond 9 hours with precip shield and qpf amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The RAP can be VERY accurate in this range. It has been great for the past several storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Far out it's not that good-it gets better within 6-9 hrs I'd say. Cool tx. I read it has a NW bias elsewhere which, looking at it's output, makes definite sense. I'll keep it in the queue for tomororow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am sure with the usual 3pm forecast package OKX will hoist WWA or Warnings for the area. Hopefully the message gets out before the SuperBowl & the public gets some heads up for Monday. People here have absolutely no idea how bad tomorrow will be. It's going to be a debacle, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How are we looking temp wise with this north trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah, so through 17, you can see the NAM will be a big hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This little storm means business folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM is north and west of the 12z run with the best lift through 700mb at 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 "Super Hi-Res" NAM Nest http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah, so through 17, you can see the NAM will be a big hit... Might be better than the ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It seems unusually far north, how accurate is it in this range? I'll put it to you this way -- you should not be using the RAP at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM is north and west of the 12z run with the best lift through 700mb at 18 hours. Wow at 19. Looks like the latest RAP and NW NJ is really more in the game than it has been (sorry, selfish post) but many areas getting pasted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Big hit incoming on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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