danstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 StormTotalSnowFcst.png Upton http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Better, but you can tack on another inch or two at least most locales... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 StormTotalSnowFcst.png Upton http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Long Island will be higher than that-it might be marginal at the very start but heavier rates should cool everyone down very quickly. I'd think 4-8" for everyone is good for now. Maybe a little less far N and W because of less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Long Island will be higher than that-it might be marginal at the very start but heavier rates should cool everyone down very quickly. I'd think 4-8" for everyone is good for now. Maybe a little less far N and W because of less precip. Timing? Earliest in/ Latest Out?Duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 those watches from mt. holly are weird. in hunterdon and monmouth county where they have a WSW, the point and click forecast for the those locations are for 3-5" meanwhile, they dont have a WSW for middlesex county, but the snow forecast is the same. i assume the criteria for a WSW is the same in all 3 of those counties. Very odd - one of the strangest I've seen. Not only that, but NYC office is forecasting 3-7" in the southern portion of their area, which is close to the Philly-NWS counties and no winter weather advisories, even, up for those counties or Middlesex/Somerset and we're certainly within 24 hours of the start of precip, which is usually when they'd want to issue advisories or warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I really think it needs to come down heavy to reach the higher amounts. Reminds me of 2/3/09..accumulations were limited to the grass until late afternoon. Was a very nice 4" wet snowfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Very odd - one of the strangest I've seen. Not only that, but NYC office is forecasting 3-7" in the southern portion of their area, which is close to the Philly-NWS counties and no winter weather advisories, even, up for those counties or Middlesex/Somerset and we're certainly within 24 hours of the start of precip, which is usually when they'd want to issue advisories or warnings.After that Euro run, I can assure you they are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Agreed. And the Warning criteria up here in Sussex is 7" and doesn't seem like the QPF is enough to get us there (or at least the Southern sections woudl max out). But the Euro has been steadfast and the short range guidance (esp. the rather solid RGEM) warrant watches in NYC and the rest of NJ, no doubt. Sussex warning criterion is 6", not 7" (in 12 hrs; it's 8" in 24 hrs). Given that all the counties in NYC/Philly offices, from Mercer-Middlesex-Monmouth-Bucks-Montgomery on northward have 6" criteria for a warning, I can see not going with the warnings if they don't have enough confidence in 6". But at least then issue WWAdvisories, as the criterion for all these counties is 3" in 12 hours and surely, we're all going to meet that from 195 up through at least route 80 in PA/NJ/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That map is wrong. Its 3" or 4" for PHL and Lower Bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Very odd - one of the strangest I've seen. Not only that, but NYC office is forecasting 3-7" in the southern portion of their area, which is close to the Philly-NWS counties and no winter weather advisories, even, up for those counties or Middlesex/Somerset and we're certainly within 24 hours of the start of precip, which is usually when they'd want to issue advisories or warnings. They won't put out advisories if they are contemplating warnings. Chances are they'll make final decision by 4pm. For mt holly they don't split their counties which may explain why hunterdon got a watch and Middlesex didn't.. all moot anyway because I'm sure they'll all be getting warnings..at least up to morris county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Timing? Earliest in/ Latest Out?Duration? Do we have to go through this every storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Timing? Earliest in/ Latest Out?Duration? Looks like mostly a morning and afternoon event, probably 1-2" per hour for much of it, so the commutes will be horrendous. I'm probably not going to even bother trying tomorrow morning with the way the LIRR usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sussex warning criterion is 6", not 7" (in 12 hrs; it's 8" in 24 hrs). Given that all the counties in NYC/Philly offices, from Mercer-Middlesex-Monmouth-Bucks-Montgomery on northward have 6" criteria for a warning, I can see not going with the warnings if they don't have enough confidence in 6". But at least then issue WWAdvisories, as the criterion for all these counties is 3" in 12 hours and surely, we're all going to meet that from 195 up through at least route 80 in PA/NJ/NY. My bad. Thought it was 7". Agreed though. It's absolutely an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You should see the SREF s tick up at 2 after the wetter 12z data gets absorbed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Erik Horst from our weather center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro snow maps show 6" for Caldwell, NJ and 6-7" through NYC...13" in philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So in total....euro is 6-8" for tomorrow and 6-8" for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Erik Horst from our weather center: ScreenHunter_59 Feb. 02 13.34.png Seems very reasonable. Despite wetter solutions I think 8-9" is the upper end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Erik Horst from our weather center: ScreenHunter_59 Feb. 02 13.34.png He's very good, I followed him closely when I lived in PA, still follow him now for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Do we have to go through this every storm? This, some people are so repetitious with their posts, same questions every single storm. I am also taking notice there are more imby type posts lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Erik Horst from our weather center: ScreenHunter_59 Feb. 02 13.34.png Erik Horst from our weather center: ScreenHunter_59 Feb. 02 13.34.png Erik Horst from our weather center: ScreenHunter_59 Feb. 02 13.34.png that 5-8 through the heart of the turnpike is gonna cause trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The Euro is a fairly widespread 4-8". A lot of the general public will be shocked by this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 the beat goes on this winter - went from a chance of a coating to an inch or 2 a couple days ago to a good chance of a SECS today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro snow maps show 6" for Caldwell, NJ and 6-7" through NYC...13" in philly Is that weatherbell? If so that is terrible, stormvista barely has philly in the 4-6 range because of mixing. Can you verify what source those maps are from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The Euro is also very close to getting precip into the game. It has precip moving in just after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is that weatherbell? If so that is terrible, stormvista barely has philly in the 4-6 range because of mixing. Can you verify what source those maps are from? Hour 24 Philly 850 minus 1. Surface 32. Hour 30 850 minus 2 surface 31. I don't see a big mix issue for u guys. The early light precip at 18 hr you're at 35. But that's so light most of you're precip is in the 6 to 9 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Gambatese Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Does there seem to be any mixing issues for Eatontown nj at the start. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 He's very good, I followed him closely when I lived in PA, still follow him now for us. He's a great guy and I've already learned a lot from him. 12z ECMWF has some insane precip rates tomorrow afternoon, which may actually verify just looking at the amount of moisture down south. SEPA gets hit with 8-12", but I wouldn't be shocked to see 6-8" in the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not saying he will be right or wrong, but you may want to check out DT's final call map in the vendor thread, this was posted prior to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 He's very good, I followed him closely when I lived in PA, still follow him now for us. do u know his twitter account per chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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