Zelocita Weather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What did the ggem show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know the thermal gradients are not huge with this sytem, but does anyone have a momentum/isentrope cross section handy? Want to diagnose any sneaky CSI potential. This storm will take a bunch of people by surprise... rates will be quite high for a time, although I think it could be one of those storms where the major urban centers have much less than areas just outside - a la Midtown Manhattan will have slush but you walk into Central Park and there are several inches. It will happen at a bad time too....most schools are out of snow days and will probably opt to open and dismiss early. Further, there is not much buzz in the media, with 1010 WINS saying 2-4 after a period of rain ( which they say will changeover quickly ). People hear 2 inches, and they don't worry so much. this ain't Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It will happen at a bad time too....most schools are out of snow days and will probably opt to open and dismiss early. Further, there is not much buzz in the media, with 1010 WINS saying 2-4 after a period of rain ( which they say will changeover quickly ). People hear 2 inches, and they don't worry so much. this ain't Atlanta. Media is too busy hyping the superbowl. Many people will be surprised when they see the snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It will happen at a bad time too....most schools are out of snow days and will probably opt to open and dismiss early. Further, there is not much buzz in the media, with 1010 WINS saying 2-4 after a period of rain ( which they say will changeover quickly ). People hear 2 inches, and they don't worry so much. this ain't Atlanta. I have noticed the media has been very conservative/pessimistic this year. Last minute they bump up totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What did the ggem show?Looks almost identical to the rgem in terms of snowfall..6+ fromabout middlesex/SI on south.. 2"-5" north of there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks almost identical to the rgem in terms of snowfall..6+ from about middlesex/SI on south.. 2"-5" north of there.. I haven't failed you yet. 6 to 8 for u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Everyone will get a nice storm…just feel those area are close enough to the heavier banding and will not lose much to warm temps to start Could also be a good event for Long Island-the areas that got into the good initial banding on Jan 21st look like a good spot for this. I'd say 50-50 shot people around I-78 down to Monmouth/Trenton will be at 36" for the season by the end of this, and then have a shot at 40" on Wednesday (the places that jackpot from this will likely be the first to go to rain on Wed though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Media is too busy hyping the superbowl. Many people will be surprised when they see the snow tomorrow. I actually think this may be why Upton is slow to hoist watches at this point - people will hear Winter Storm Watch and get confused with the SB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Could also be a good event for Long Island-the areas that got into the good initial banding on Jan 21st look like a good spot for this. I'd say 50-50 shot people around I-78 down to Monmouth/Trenton will be at 36" for the season by the end of this, and then have a shot at 40" on Wednesday (the places that jackpot from this will likely be the first to go to rain on Wed though). At 39 here. Will b close to 50 by the time wed changes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Start time for KJFK.. I'd assume from all I have read that 2-4 seems the most likely that 3-6 r 4-8 is not in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I actually think this may be why Upton is slow to hoist watches at this point - people will hear Winter Storm Watch and get confused with the SB. what am i missing here? they're not issuing a WSW because they are forecasting only 2-4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Start time for KJFK.. I'd assume from all I have read that 2-4 seems the most likely that 3-6 r 4-8 is not in the cards. .5 liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lower ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's 54 degrees here in Brooklyn today hard to believe snow is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's 54 degrees here in Brooklyn today hard to believe snow is on the way 53 degrees and it feels amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lower ratios 10 to 1. 850s are minus 3. Surface at 0. Ratios are fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 what am i missing here? they're not issuing a WSW because they are forecasting only 2-4" of snow. Perhaps they are just going conservative... but certain counties in the Mt. Holly area on the same latitude as OKX have watches so not great continuity with surrounding offices. But they have time. I just think the SB may factor in to their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I truly hope this weekend storm delivers I will gladly be happy with this winter and would really look forward to spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Perhaps they are just going conservative... but certain counties in the Mt. Holly area on the same latitude as OKX have watches so not great continuity with surrounding offices. But they have time. I just think the SB may factor in to their thinking. The snow will play a big role for everyone leaving home tomorrow after the game, so they should have some warning of upcoming snows (I'm sure social media cued them in on it at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is on point. Hr 30 heavy snow Phl-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hr 36 steady snow moving out. This is a thump job for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro wet! .75+ up to hpn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6-8 NYC metro on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro wet! .75+ up to hpn Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Perhaps they are just going conservative... but certain counties in the Mt. Holly area on the same latitude as OKX have watches so not great continuity with surrounding offices. But they have time. I just think the SB may factor in to their thinking. those watches from mt. holly are weird. in hunterdon and monmouth county where they have a WSW, the point and click forecast for the those locations are for 3-5" meanwhile, they dont have a WSW for middlesex county, but the snow forecast is the same. i assume the criteria for a WSW is the same in all 3 of those counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is very north and very wet...0.75" to NYC and 1" kissing the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6-8 NYC metro on the euro How far north does the heavy QPF go? I80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Cold to start as snow as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How farth north does 0.5" make it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How far north does the heavy QPF go? I80? .75 to I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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