EasternLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z rgem looks like a bump north from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z rgem looks like a bump north from 0z Doesn't look that way to me, looks a little weaker, quicker to move out and maybe even slightly south with the heaviest precip. Not anything major, but I wouldn't say north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Doesn't look that way to me, looks a little weaker, quicker to move out and maybe even slightly south with the heaviest precip. Not anything major, but I wouldn't say north. with the storm itself it looked a bump north to me, but at the same time....weaker and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM is still 15mm up to about my area which is very solid...has to be 13-15mm to NYC. Close to the NAM if not right along the same lines as it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Middlesex Monmouth mercer counties will jackpot from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Middlesex Monmouth mercer counties will jackpot from this Well there is nothing new lol. Gotta say though allsnow this event turned into a nice sneaky one. Im satisfied with this outcome should it actually come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well there is nothing new lol. Gotta say though allsnow this event turned into a nice sneaky one. Im satisfied with this outcome should it actually come to fruition Everyone will get a nice storm…just feel those area are close enough to the heavier banding and will not lose much to warm temps to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs is rolling. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Everyone will get a nice storm…just feel those area are close enough to the heavier banding and will not lose much to warm temps to start Not sure how I feel about being north of rt80 and west of rt287. Might not get to to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 hr 24 precept into area….looks like it starts as rain for phl-nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 hr 27 steady snow from ttn-nyc heavy stuff in snj but they have temp problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 hr 30 steady snow from phl-nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah looks like RGEM is weaker and further south, not north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 gfs .5+ north of nyc .75 to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS farther north and wetter..noticeably so compared to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS farther north and wetter..noticeably so compared to 06z. Whats ur thoughts on temps john? looks mild to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like a general idea of around .5" liquid for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Using the euro Rgem nam and last nite sref which will look like that again this afternoon. This should b close to .75 in nyc and approaching an inch from philly through Monmouth County this is snow at 10 to 1 shorter high res models are the tool that should win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 4-8 should be a good call for rt. 78 to rt.3/46. 6-12 south of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still like most of the area seeing 3-5" of snow with a JP zone of 6"+ where the coldest temps overlap the most intense snow. High end advisory level from Rt. 78 north. Low end warning criteria a long 195. The shortwave is being compressed as it moves towards our area, that generally supports a narrower band of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM similar to hi res nam...4-5" NYC with 7-8" phl. Although philly might be warmer to start, the band over them is shown on every model. They will accumulate quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wonder if warning will go up for places like Middlesex and surrounding counties to the N&W. I think there's a good chance at getting at least 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM which has also nailed ptypes all year shows rain NYC/LI 07-09Z....RAPL, RASN, or SNPL 09-12Z then snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In any winter, this storm would be solid and in some of those awful winters it would be the best storm of the season. It's always a good winter when NYC surpasses 30" by 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So, aside from all model's accumulation amounts.....my thinking as far as amounts is as follows : NW NJ 2-4" NYC/NE NJ area 3-4" Monmouth county area down to Trenton 4-5" Philly area and adjacent NJ areas 4-5" SNJ interior areas 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A LOT of qpf wasted from TNT to Sndy Hook/se......I would not want to be se of a PHL to asbury line right now, looks like 50% of precip will be rain/mix for them....I think n/c nj gets more tha. South jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A LOT of qpf wasted from TNT to Sndy Hook/se......I would not want to be se of a PHL to asbury line right now, looks like 50% of precip will be rain/mix for them....I think n/c nj gets more tha. South jerseydeath band may help us mix down close to phl fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The center point of the heaviest frozen precip is from philly To nyc and across into Monmouth any spotty precip which wouldn't amount to much could always start as drizzle. 850 s are minus 2 Once the heavier precip starts it's all snow. The euro is cold throughout and all are cold aloft. Philly to Monmouth 6 to 8. Nyc 4 to 6 Not a lot of 2 s Gona show up unless it in nwnj and Rockland county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know the thermal gradients are not huge with this sytem, but does anyone have a momentum/isentrope cross section handy?Want to diagnose any sneaky CSI potential. This storm will take a bunch of people by surprise... rates will be quite high for a time, although I think it could be one of those storms where the major urban centers have much less than areas just outside - a la Midtown Manhattan will have slush but you walk into Central Park and there are several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The Jackpot zone for snow - not total qpf in these situations usually is just north of Trenton through southern half of Somerset and the Northern part of Middlesex County east through most of Staten Island - they are in the best spot right now because they are far enough north to be mainly snow and far enough south to be in the heavier qpf region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.