Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM, hypothetically would be a monster of a it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 0z NAM is flatter at H5, with increased separation between northern and southern waves, and further south with its precip shield. Its extension, the DGEX had about 1" liquid at NYC. The 0z NAM by comparison looks like a scraper. But as modeled, there would probably be an area of SNJ, maybe up to CNJ that would get light to possibly moderate precip (probably snow). But this was a clear step toward the model consensus of a scraper or a miss south, and a less significant storm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM, hypothetically would be a monster of a it. Yea it would be, the only thing that has me worried is the Canadian dries out some of the heavier precip when it get to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 0z NAM is flatter at H5, with increased separation between northern and southern waves, and further south with its precip shield. Its extension, the DGEX had about 1" liquid at NYC. The 0z NAM by comparison looks like a scraper. But as modeled, there would probably be an area of SNJ, maybe up to CNJ that would get light to possibly moderate precip (probably snow). But this was a clear step toward the model consensus of a scraper or a miss south, and a less significant storm overall. Pretty sure this is more than light to moderate precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM, hypothetically would be a monster of a it.Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not sure what you guys are seeing on the NAM unless you are well south of NYC metro. The wave is dampening as it approaches and the SLP is well south of the region. The 700mb chart shows best lift and saturation to the south. This is a skimmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM, hypothetically would be a monster of a it.Sorry bro but you deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Pretty sure this is more than light to moderate precip: Yea thats a nice looking SIM but still a while to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Pretty sure this is more than light to moderate precip: The sim radar is always overdone. But sure, your area in SNJ would get light to mod QPF based on that NAM prog. But the precip is moving ENE and MIGHT clip the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not sure what you guys are seeing on the NAM unless you are well south of NYC metro. The wave is dampening as it approaches and the SLP is well south of the region. The 700mb chart shows best lift and saturation to the south. This is a skimmer. Yeah assuming its NW bias at this range that has to be shoved 100 miles SE, its likely a hit though for C S NJ to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No one has said this is wide spread , But out of dust this is DCA to Philly to CNJ , out of what a day ago was PC skies . Now either you can see a possible N trend developing over the last 18 hours or not . You`re choice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The sim radar at 84hrs on the 18z NAM by comparison was much much better for NNJ and NYC. If other guidance does not come north in the next few cycles, it's likely that the NAM will keep going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The sim radar is always overdone. But sure, your area in SNJ would get light to mod QPF based on that NAM prog. But the precip is moving ENE and MIGHT clip the NYC metro. we still need to wait another 24- 36 hours to get a better handle on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Considering the NAM is overdone and it still misses us with a sharp cutoff and weakening area of precip, I wouldn't count on anythjng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Considering the NAM is overdone and it still misses us with a sharp cutoff and weakening area of precip, I wouldn't count on anythjng No one is, just discussing it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't the Philly people have their own forum? I guess the NYC forum is more active. The more the better. I preferred the old days when there were no subforums anyway. But what's good for one city might be bad for another... so it does make model analysis a little more confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't the Philly people have their own forum? I guess the NYC forum is more active. The more the better. I preferred the old days when there were no subforums anyway. But what's good for one city might be bad for another... so it does make model analysis a little more confusing. I`m in Colts Neck that kool with you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah assuming its NW bias at this range that has to be shoved 100 miles SE, its likely a hit though for C S NJ to some extent. Agreed. But even discounting the fact that it will likely verify too far NW, I thought it was a bad step from 18z. I didn't realize so many people in this NYC metro subforum lived in SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Considering the NAM is overdone and it still misses us with a sharp cutoff and weakening area of precip, I wouldn't count on anythjng Its not even up to our time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I`m in Colts Neck that kool with you ? I'm in Albany, that cool with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Its not even up to our time frame... Look at 500mb and 700mb. It's a miss NW of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm in Albany, that cool with you? Wait...youre complaining about philly posters and youre in the wrong forum too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Honestly I'd wait until 12z Saturday to begin making predictions with this storm, NAM isn't reliable past 48 hours this winter (nor is any model). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm in Albany, that cool with you? Colts Neck is not in SNJ . Enjoy Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Agreed. But even discounting the fact that it will likely verify too far NW, I thought it was a bad step from 18z. I didn't realize so many people in this NYC metro subforum lived in SNJ. Nam was way south with the southern storm this week at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wait...youre complaining about philly posters and youre in the wrong forum too? I'm not complaining. I was responding to several posters who thought the 0z NAM looked good... when I thought it looked not so good. The confusion was that I was referring to the immediate NYC metro area, and other people were referring to Philly or SNJ. I don't mind where posters are from. We just have to be clear when analyzing models, which areas we are referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Colts Neck is not in SNJ . Enjoy Albany I know where Colts Neck is. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Look at 500mb and 700mb. It's a miss NW of Trenton. The NAM has not had much of a NW bias this year except in the extreme short term with he precip field. This was the 84 hour NAM with the southern storm and then this was 12 hours out. So making an exact forecast right now of a hit or miss is not prudent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This clearly still has a chance to produce something. The 12z Euro and to a lesser extend CMC got measurable precip pretty far north. But it was a bummer to have the NAM make a sizable shift south. You want your NW outlier to be NW of your desired solution... not THE ideal solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nam was way south with the southern storm this week at this time frame Good point....i won't get excited about it, yet, but of course I'll be watching the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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