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Feb 3rd event


Brian5671

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Euro is .5 at KNYC. .7 into KBLM. 1 inch into Toms River. I keep reading people think this is 8 to 1 I think by Brooklyn friend said .5 is 2 to 4. Hour 42 850 minus 3 surface 31. Hour 48 850 minus 3 surface 30. This all 10 to 1 .

The RGEM at KNYC looks close to .75 and an inch right to the driscol bridge. The tic south on the SREF is because the NAM is as wrong as it could be . With these precip rates due to the VV showing up I suspect the best banding will be through CNJ that the models will not pick up until inside 24 hours.

KNYC is prob close to 6 inches .

In a line from Philly through Trenton into Monmouth county is closer to 8 .

still thinking 2-5" more likely for the city itself, but 6" can't be ruled out I suppose -- have to head into the city monday around noon - should be interesting.. 

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Euro is .5 at KNYC. .7 into KBLM. 1 inch into Toms River. I keep reading people think this is 8 to 1 I think by Brooklyn friend said .5 is 2 to 4. Hour 42 850 minus 3 surface 31. Hour 48 850 minus 3 surface 30. This all 10 to 1 .

The RGEM at KNYC looks close to .75 and an inch right to the driscol bridge. The tic south on the SREF is because the NAM is as wrong as it could be . With these precip rates due to the VV showing up I suspect the best banding will be through CNJ that the models will not pick up until inside 24 hours.

KNYC is prob close to 6 inches .

In a line from Philly through Trenton into Monmouth county is closer to 8 .

 

I doubt it will be 8 to 1 with the exception of the very start, 700-850 mb temps by 14-15Z would argue for temps to be -3 to -6C in the 850-700mb layer, surface temps/dewpoints will probably be near 35/25 when the snow starts so I'd anticipate it would be 30-32, more likely 10 to 1 given the temps.

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I doubt it will be 8 to 1 with the exception of the very start, 700-850 mb temps by 14-15Z would argue for temps to be -3 to -6C in the 850-700mb layer, surface temps/dewpoints will probably be near 35/25 when the snow starts so I'd anticipate it would be 30-32, more likely 10 to 1 given the temps.

I agree the whole column is cool. To me it's a 10 to 1 paste job

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Like the prodigal son the NAM is back. Wait until 2 for the SREF when the new NAM data is in it .

This is 8 from Philly through Monmouth county and not much less in nyc would say 6 enough though for WSW for most of the 5 boroughs

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Regardless of QPF amount...moreso an issue for those of us in central and Southern NJ (monmouth/ocean counties) is any of this lost to rain/mixing at the onset? I am guessing this wont be an issue in NYC and surrounding

Not an issue in western& n. Monmouth at all. Temps crash to 32 or below before arrival of precip

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Regardless im going with 3-4" for LI. The main show where 6-12" will have the best chance of falling would be from philly-NE to monmouth county. NYC i feel comfortable in saying will be in that 3-4" range as well

 

Probably looking at 4 to 7 inches out over Long Island...

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In any winter, this storm would be solid and in some of those awful winters it would be the best storm of the season.

So will we fall a bit short in our area again? ( I consider our area to be the New Brunswick region, Edison, Metuchen, Woodbridge, upt to about S Brunswick, where they seem more in line with Mercer co amounts...)

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