BoulderWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is .5 at KNYC. .7 into KBLM. 1 inch into Toms River. I keep reading people think this is 8 to 1 I think by Brooklyn friend said .5 is 2 to 4. Hour 42 850 minus 3 surface 31. Hour 48 850 minus 3 surface 30. This all 10 to 1 . The RGEM at KNYC looks close to .75 and an inch right to the driscol bridge. The tic south on the SREF is because the NAM is as wrong as it could be . With these precip rates due to the VV showing up I suspect the best banding will be through CNJ that the models will not pick up until inside 24 hours. KNYC is prob close to 6 inches . In a line from Philly through Trenton into Monmouth county is closer to 8 . still thinking 2-5" more likely for the city itself, but 6" can't be ruled out I suppose -- have to head into the city monday around noon - should be interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is .5 at KNYC. .7 into KBLM. 1 inch into Toms River. I keep reading people think this is 8 to 1 I think by Brooklyn friend said .5 is 2 to 4. Hour 42 850 minus 3 surface 31. Hour 48 850 minus 3 surface 30. This all 10 to 1 . The RGEM at KNYC looks close to .75 and an inch right to the driscol bridge. The tic south on the SREF is because the NAM is as wrong as it could be . With these precip rates due to the VV showing up I suspect the best banding will be through CNJ that the models will not pick up until inside 24 hours. KNYC is prob close to 6 inches . In a line from Philly through Trenton into Monmouth county is closer to 8 . I doubt it will be 8 to 1 with the exception of the very start, 700-850 mb temps by 14-15Z would argue for temps to be -3 to -6C in the 850-700mb layer, surface temps/dewpoints will probably be near 35/25 when the snow starts so I'd anticipate it would be 30-32, more likely 10 to 1 given the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I doubt it will be 8 to 1 with the exception of the very start, 700-850 mb temps by 14-15Z would argue for temps to be -3 to -6C in the 850-700mb layer, surface temps/dewpoints will probably be near 35/25 when the snow starts so I'd anticipate it would be 30-32, more likely 10 to 1 given the temps. I agree the whole column is cool. To me it's a 10 to 1 paste job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Like the prodigal son the NAM is back. Wait until 2 for the SREF when the new NAM data is in it . This is 8 from Philly through Monmouth county and not much less in nyc would say 6 enough though for WSW for most of the 5 boroughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 09z SREF mean is almost identical to 3z, more consolidation among the individual members though and less spread. Total Precip Mean 9z: 3z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nam looks better for sure, waiting for rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ha! NAM between last night and 12z is hilarious. Big hit for most of NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks almost like RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nam went boom and matches or exceeds ggem/rgem with the .75" qpf line up to NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If the Nam is right, we would be on par with the snow events in January and get another 8 or 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z nam Hmm, that map seems a little too wet to me. Instant Weather Maps has the 1" contour just barely reaching SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hmm, that map seems a little too wet to me. Instant Weather Maps has the 1" contour just barely reaching SEPA Yea, it's around 0.75" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hmm, that map seems a little too wet to me. Instant Weather Maps has the 1" contour just barely reaching SEPA Just looked at ncep, and your right.....it should be .75 where it has 1" and so on..... edit - deleted....too confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice little event with SREF mean coming in at about 3-5" for JFK-FRG-ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Regardless of QPF amount...moreso an issue for those of us in central and Southern NJ (monmouth/ocean counties) is any of this lost to rain/mixing at the onset? I am guessing this wont be an issue in NYC and surrounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12 z NAM totals. Big jump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Regardless im going with 3-4" for LI. The main show where 6-12" will have the best chance of falling would be from philly-NE to monmouth county. NYC i feel comfortable in saying will be in that 3-4" range as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In any winter, this storm would be solid and in some of those awful winters it would be the best storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Regardless of QPF amount...moreso an issue for those of us in central and Southern NJ (monmouth/ocean counties) is any of this lost to rain/mixing at the onset? I am guessing this wont be an issue in NYC and surrounding Not an issue in western& n. Monmouth at all. Temps crash to 32 or below before arrival of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 4km is 0.5" from Northern NYC, north shore of LI on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 4km is 0.5" from Northern NYC, north shore of LI on south.How far back into Jerz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Regardless im going with 3-4" for LI. The main show where 6-12" will have the best chance of falling would be from philly-NE to monmouth county. NYC i feel comfortable in saying will be in that 3-4" range as well Probably looking at 4 to 7 inches out over Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How far back into Jerz? 0.5" line runs pretty parallel through the area. So whatever is west of NYC is around the 0.5", more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In any winter, this storm would be solid and in some of those awful winters it would be the best storm of the season. So will we fall a bit short in our area again? ( I consider our area to be the New Brunswick region, Edison, Metuchen, Woodbridge, upt to about S Brunswick, where they seem more in line with Mercer co amounts...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What do the sref's show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hi res NAM snow maps show 4-5" for NYC area and 7-8" for PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z NAM snow in centimeters assuming 10:1 ratio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So every model is around .5" for nyc..upton still going 2-4"...bad ratios/too warm?..or just being cautious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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