SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The NAM is following what it did the last two storms which includes the event here and the one down in the south it generally found a solution around 60 hours out then largely held to it despite the SREFs continuing to move NW, the RGEM will give us an idea the next 2 runs or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0Z Nam still has the 0.25 - 0.50 area over NYC Metro and Northern NJ and the 0.50 line up to around the raritan river in NJ only difference is the sharp cutoff to the north - still a 2 - 4 inch event across most of NYC Metro proper http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014020200/namconus_apcpn_us_15.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0.50qpf (hard to see) reaches NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Don't abandon the heavier snow idea w the Euro the Canadian the Rgem and sref in you're back pocket . Look for consensus There's always outliers to both extremes . But I would give little weight to a model that flip flops like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well on the 4k NAM, weatherbell snow depth, it is 6" total snowfall into parts of NYC, yet with snow depth never getting above 3", and under 2" by the time the storm winds down. How accurate are the model's depictions of melting ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well on the 4k NAM, weatherbell snow depth, it is 6" total snowfall into parts of NYC, yet with snow depth never getting above 3", and under 2" by the time the storm winds down. How accurate are the model's depictions of melting ? Yeah I don't understand that. Temps are borderline on the 4km (32-33), so maybe WB is accounting for melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM looks really good.How much qpf is it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On the black and white maps so far, it looks like the rgem nails us. One good sign on the precip type maps, is that it shows at 36 hrs snow over the area with PHL and SE, rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How much qpf is it showing? 12-14mm for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Remarkable how the 12km (regular) NAM is sloppy, while the HI-RES 4km NAM is so much better at details like cutoff zones, this resembles the RPM somewhat, 6-8" in that purple Snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I said when the NAM was 75 miles south, I said it was hr 42. I posted in the page back the the NAM is north with the initial batch of precip and south with the main, heavier precip. In the end, it's not much different, a little less. Ah. Cool. Got it man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12-14mm for the city http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&type=PR&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qcDef some rain over snj to start Here's total snow http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM looks really good. Yup. Looks like a solid hit. RGEM has been performing solid this winter. I have to give it some credence once we're in its 48 hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Actually RGEM looks more than 12-14mm I said earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's 15-20mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Monmouth Co ftw...again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Monmouth Co ftw...again Well that's a given. I think we've all accepted they'll always jackpot Philly as well, of course. Assuming the rgem is overdone and philly doesn't see 8-12" and we don't see 4-8", cut in half seems more likely....phl 4-6 and us 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That 20mm line just south of Staten Island is 0.78" liquid as snow. Holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well that's a given. I think we've all accepted they'll always jackpot Philly as well, of course. Assuming the rgem is overdone and philly doesn't see 8-12" and we don't see 4-8", cut in half seems more likely....phl 4-6 and us 2-4 Everyone said the RGEM was overdone the last storm (even myself) and it verified almost to the exact T. I don't think we can make such drastic assumptions. Right now there is some model consensus that a portion of SNJ is going to deal with temp issues and some rain to begin. Philly S and E is riding the make it or break line right now. Wouldn't stun me if we saw some now-casting change with where the heaviest snow falls and keep in mind, sometimes the "best" accumulating snow or the highest totals don't come where heaviest radar returns are, if there are surface issues or mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Monmouth Co ftw...again agreed.. youll have a little rain/sleet to start it looks like but regardless another great storm for you guys! I'm just to your north and wont do quite as well but should be frozen most of the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That 20mm line just south of Staten Island is 0.78" liquid as snow. Holy moly. I really love that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0 GFS is going live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 agreed.. youll have a little rain/sleet to start it looks like but regardless another great storm for you guys! I'm just to your north and wont do quite as well but should be frozen most of the event.. Im not from there lol. Southern Nassau Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WOW looking at rgem snow maps....by hour 42, it is 6" snow for NYC area and adjacent NE NJ...and over 10" for PHL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 To recap the RGEM. Hr 39 850s KNYC minus 2 Monmouth county to about asbury park minus 1 Hour 42 850s same. Hr 45 850 s minus 4. Surface temps KNYC 32. 31.30. Monmouth county. 33 32 32 R/S at hour 39 is around Ocean county Monmouth county border. Then it cools. So N of there is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ....and the GFS is a major whiff to the South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ....and the GFS is a major whiff to the South! Its not a whiff. It's def not the rgem though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Its not a whiff. It's def not the rgem though. It's a whiff comparing the two. .78" of QPF on Staten Island, in snow --- to what looks like an inch or two. Yeah, it's a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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