green tube Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 oh canada... we stand on guard for thee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It was only a fair question by rossi imo. Not sure why you took a defensive stand. Lets see some consensus (we're getting there). I am curious as to your thinking in the bolded. I didn't see any reasoning behind this, unless I missed it. Which if I did, then I apologizeOh, well pretty much because of what winter warlock said. There really is a double standard when reading it interpreting model output. If someone says that it's trending much further north toward a solution, and I merely state that it is not (because the gfs did actually trend south with the 0.25 and 0.5 lines - a sign to me that is getting closer to a solution after it's previous jump)....it should have just as much validity. Being that 99% of the posts in this regional forum are not by mets, our opinions an discussion should not merely have to be about positive trends of the models. I see it this way....in an area that only averages 15-30" of snow per year....if we DID receive all of the snow always shown by models, we would average about 150-250" per year. All in all...if we get a storm that dumps several inches, it is actually a fairly rare treat, and not something to expect (also not something for the models to always trend towards). I feel this gives more than enough reason to believe that a positive trend on a given model run should be handled with more doubt and need more backup, and also more reason for any doubtful thinking to be given more creed and acceptance than it is...because aside from any qpf output on the models, climatology plays a part, and as we know....we average 15-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gefs .25 north of nyc and .5 to phl the mean is also plenty cold…but when is it not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 models have seemed to stop trending north at 12Z - 12Z GEFS the same as 6Z with 0.25 line across southern NYC - so general 2 -4 inches across the area seems reasonable http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014020112/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 models have seemed to stop trending north at 12Z - 12Z GEFS the same as 6Z with 0.25 line across southern NYC - so general 2 -4 inches across the area seems reasonable http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014020112/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_10.png 10:1 ratios at best in nyc so i think 1-2 is more likely, jumping to 3-6 about 20-40 miles south of the city - only verbatim of course, not saying i fully endorse the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Your assuming the GFS has the right idea...Trend of the winter has been stronger then modeled S/Ws. Its also getting into the NAM/RGEM/SREF range.We also have a lot of time left for late trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Your assuming the GFS has the right idea... Trend of the winter has been stronger then modeled S/Ws. Its also getting into the NAM/RGEM/SREF range. We also have a lot of time left for late trends. I was taking into account all the models combined - so 2 -4 seems reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebythec Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 From Weather Underground for 08736 Monday Snow will become heavy at times during the afternoon. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 How cool would had been. Having it during the game instead .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think a few inches seems reasonable from the city east and especially south. If there's a little more of a north trend though, there could be amounts closer to 6". Wouldn't take a lot and there;s still time for a 75-100 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 did the color ggem snow total maps come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z RPM, SWFE heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z RPM, SWFE heaven How do we make this verify? lol, I'm right under that pink 10-12" stripe in Central Jersey. I'll be happy with 3-5", which seems like a reasonable call for most of Central Jersey/Central Eastern PA at this point (I define Central Jersey/Central Eastern PA as roughly between 195/276 and 78) if one blends most of the model output (which isn't necessarily the way to do it, but that's what the NWS often does, but they do it with reasoning - I'm just doing rough averaging). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro through 36 hr looks much better than the 00z run at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 hr 42 euro temps are crashing 06z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 More amplified with the southern stream energy but now a hair farther south with the shortwave over the Great Lakes. Makes sense considering other guidance tightening the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 wow hr 54 way north…mod snow up to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the Canadian at 54 hour. Nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.50" QPF to NYC at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 hr 60 mod snow up to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro is north again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.50" QPF to NYC at hour 60. Wow and time to keep trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro goes boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 .50 up to nyc and .75 up to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can you even begin to image the mayhem if this came a day earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 .50 up to nyc and .75 up to phl QPF for north jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 4-6 for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm liking the trends with this. Can you imagine of we add another several inches on top of that on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 QPF for north jersey? .5 to 78..north of there .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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