rossi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 48 plenty cold from Phl north to support snow. Light snow moving in Great to see you back for analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 15z Monday light snow to hpn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 54 steady snow to hpn. Mod snow Phl/south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 54 mod snow all of no heavy in s nj. Further N than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 57 mod snow snj and steady snow metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.25" just south of NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 No north trend on the GFS. Not a huge hit for the NYC area, but not bad. These are the kind of events where you really have to be in that HEAVY band to get significant accumulations. Areas in the band can cool down to freezing while areas north of it can be 33-34 with light snow and not accumulate much. The "better ratios north" will NOT apply. I still like 3-5" for phl ENE through NJ, and 1-2" for most of northern NJ into NYC...with NYC closer to the 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Qpf .10 to hpn .25 to NYC .5 to acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sv snow maps 2-4 from Phl-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yup. This might the event where the ECMWF and the NAM will dominate. It's been a long time since I said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Qpf .10 to hpn .25 to NYC .5 to acy This will continue he to trend north in later runs. Same all winter. C NJ jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 General 1-3 / 2-4". Not as much qpf as NAM but further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I do expect this to be more north on future runs.. It will get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm so close to calling ths 4 to 8 from philly to Monmouth County . The best lift is right through that corridor qpf has Had to catch up to the upper air maps all year. Yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 No north trend on the GFS. Not a huge hit for the NYC area, but not bad. These are the kind of events where you really have to be in that HEAVY band to get significant accumulations. Areas in the band can cool down to freezing while areas north of it can be 33-34 with light snow and not accumulate much. The "better ratios north" will NOT apply. I still like 3-5" for phl ENE through NJ, and 1-2" for most of northern NJ into NYC...with NYC closer to the 2" To be honest, the better ratios north thinking has not applied most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The weatherbell snow maps are not great for the NYC area and seem to support the idea of there being a heavy band of accumulation 3-5" and not much else outside of it. It shows around or less than 2" for NYC and NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The weatherbell snow maps are not great for the NYC area and seem to support the idea of there being a heavy band of accumulation 3-5" and not much else outside of it. It shows around or less than 2" for NYC and NNJ Why don't you wait for tomorrow when we have consensus before we discuss accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 QPF queens, lol Instant weather maps show 2" for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm so close to calling ths 4 to 8 from philly to My area. The best lift is right through that corridor qpf has Had to catch up to the upper air maps all year. Yr Edited that for you mr. I live in metro area snowbelt haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Why don't you wait for tomorrow when we have consensus before we discuss accumulations.Well....because I am discussing the accumulations shown by a weather model and their interpretation of the data, and giving my feedback, albeit not a professional forecast by any means....basically what just about everyone is doing here, only I'm just not fully buying the idea that we see 3-6". I believe that will be focused in the pretty narrow band from PHL through S and CNJ. You, however, are free to think what you want, and by all means if you think we see more, that'd be great....but posts telling people what they should or should not think are more cumbersome to scroll through than someone's interpretation of model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM and SREFs are more reliable to see where the cutoff zone and the heavy snow zone will be IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM and SREFs are more reliable to see where the cutoff zone and the heavy snow zone will be IMO Agreed. I actually like the NAM for showing not exactly WHERE a band of snow will set up, but the size and orientation of the band. It's sometimes pretty accurate for that inside 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM and SREFs are more reliable to see where the cutoff zone and the heavy snow zone will be IMO I agree on this. Srefs are deadly inside two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You can't just look at qpf. Take the NAM and the GFS and run there last 4 runs and tell me what trend you see. Also look at the VV and look where the model thinks the best corridor for lift is it's prob just north of the precip which to means the precip ends up further north. The only model that hasent trended north is the euro and that's The only model I Wana come back north to support the higher totals Even though the euro has had issues this winter it has weight and you really want to see it shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GGEM looks unchanged, not a surprise really since it takes over for the RGEM from 54 onward..it may be 10 miles south of the 00Z run but cannot really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well....because I am discussing the accumulations shown by a weather model and their interpretation of the data, and giving my feedback, albeit not a professional forecast by any means....basically what just about everyone is doing here, only I'm just not fully buying the idea that we see 3-6". I believe that will be focused in the pretty narrow band from PHL through S and CNJ. You, however, are free to think what you want, and by all means if you think we see more, that'd be great....but posts telling people what they should or should not think are more cumbersome to scroll through than someone's interpretation of model output good post I agree...you were just giving what the models are saying. I see there is a double standard. When someone starts talking 3-6/4-8 or the higher amounts they are not called out but you got called out because you posted something from the model that showed less snow. I know some will blast me and dismiss what I am saying but when I come here I want to hear an objective analysis of the situation not just one side where we get the huge amounts. Actually the past 6 hours this thread hasn't been as bad because certain posters are not posting in it filled with weenism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well....because I am discussing the accumulations shown by a weather model and their interpretation of the data, and giving my feedback, albeit not a professional forecast by any means....basically what just about everyone is doing here, only I'm just not fully buying the idea that we see 3-6". I believe that will be focused in the pretty narrow band from PHL through S and CNJ. You, however, are free to think what you want, and by all means if you think we see more, that'd be great....but posts telling people what they should or should not think are more cumbersome to scroll through than someone's interpretation of model output It was only a fair question by rossi imo. Not sure why you took a defensive stand. Lets see some consensus (we're getting there). I am curious as to your thinking in the bolded. I didn't see any reasoning behind this, unless I missed it. Which if I did, then I apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Canadian is a tick south of last night but that was expected given the wild solution. Still looks like around .5" liquid for NYC and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ggem qpf .5 to nyc .75 to ttn 1.00 to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014020112/I_nw_g1_EST_2014020112_054.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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