BoulderWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like a 7-9 hour wet snow paste job nyc south. Which i think would compensate for the warm pavement unfortunately this is not like the last storms where everything stuck immediately so fo the city itself to see any accumulation more than slush, you will need to count on very heavy snowfall rates.. As of now I see NYC on the very northern fringe of those heaviest rates so it will be a close call. I can see NYC getting 1-3 sloppy inches, perhaps a bit more if things trend north about 50 miles to get them off of the northern fringe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 sun angle only matters when the event is marginally cold. it can snow during the day in april and stick to roads I was more referring to the warm temps before the storm. I think that might hurt the urban areas with accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Seems like a similar event to the 2/3/09 storm. It was also very warm the day before and snow began with temps above freezing http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 sun angle only matters when the event is marginally cold. it can snow during the day in april and stick to roads April 6, 1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 sun angle only matters when the event is marginally cold. it can snow during the day in april and stick to roads It probably will get in early enough too that there won't be a chance for the solar heating to do much work, if the always slow NAM brings it in at 15z or so it probably will be here by 10-12Z....models show 34/17 roughly as the spread at the time so yeah agree it would stick well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think a general 1-3 inches is likely with this event, but with the latest trends could be more. Check out my blog for this event. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=72468&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 sun angle only matters when the event is marginally cold. it can snow during the day in april and stick to roads example of that was April 7 , 2003 Heavy Snow roads snow covered in the early afternoon and ground was warm - 2 days prior was in 40's and 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 example of that was April 7 , 2003 Heavy Snow roads snow covered in the early afternoon and ground was warm - 2 days prior was in 40's and 50's Why are we talking about sun angle on Feb 1st? The only reason snow wouldn't stick is if its too mild and/or snow isn't falling heavily enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sun angle on February 1? I heard it all. Nam isn't that far away from a SECS in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Why are we talking about sun angle on Feb 1st? The only reason snow wouldn't stick is if its too mild and/or snow isn't falling heavily enough. I was replying to Forky's statement about sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sun angle on February 1? I heard it all. Nam isn't that far away from a SECS in our area. trends north continue on most models so we don't know what the potential is on this one yet with just under 48 hours to go and in this winter so far thats a long time for the models to come to a conclusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I was replying to Forky's statement about sun angle Right I just meant how did it come up in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 RGEM through 48 would likely end up north of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Right I just meant how did it come up in the first place.I made a comment about it snowing lightly during the day and not accumulating on roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Right now with temps and trends I would not want to be south of a PHL to a Asbury Park line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Right now with temps and trends I would not want to be south of a PHL to a Asbury Park line...strongly agree. Getting close now in phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z initialized folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z initialized folks Yea, big run here ! Show us the money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sun angle on February 1? I heard it all. Add to that "warm ground temps", when many have snow on the ground two days before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well, I've been calling for 3-6" on a phl-nyc line and I see no reason to back off of that attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well, I've been calling for 3-6" on a phl-nyc line and I see no reason to back off of that attm Even that might be too low if the .50+ QPF becomes a reality. The Nam showed .75+ of QPF not too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Even that might be too low if the .50+ QPF becomes a reality. The Nam showed .75+ of QPF not too far south.that's the scary part! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hopefully the gfs doesn't get all goofy on us and shear out the wave like its been known to do in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This storm is a great example as to why everyone should not go off the deep end with every model run. Take each storm threat analyze and get into it 48 hours before the event. This apples to every winter But especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gfs is going to be further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I know the WSI RPM model sucks, but I wanted to share anyway...fwiw, the 12Z run of it gives a pretty solid corridor from NYC to PHL 10-12". This is wishcasting, but still interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z RGEM looks like a big hit is incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hr 48 plenty cold from Phl north to support snow. Light snow moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gfs is going to be further north If you look at the NAM and now the GFS the initial tongue of light moisture is further north. Nam ended up N and think same happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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