rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It is way too inconsistent for my liking. It doesn't really go in either direction, sometimes it is way too wet and amped, sometimes it will be too suppressed until the last moment. It has had its well forecast systems, but for the most part it is just eye candy -- a very unreliable model with good graphics and resolution. At least to me. Unless I'm mistaken wasn't the nam a lot better before the upgrade thy gave it ? Usually under 36 hrs it seemed pretty accurate a few years ago minus the overdone precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It is way too inconsistent for my liking. It doesn't really go in either direction, sometimes it is way too wet and amped, sometimes it will be too suppressed until the last moment. It has had its well forecast systems, but for the most part it is just eye candy -- a very unreliable model with good graphics and resolution. At least to me. I agree about the NAM. Sometimes it doesn't lock into a solution until inside 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ha ha. NAM is waaaaay North with the lead precip at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The ARW has 1" of QPF to NYC http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_12z/f57.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_12z/f63.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM at 42 hours further west and wetter than at 48 hours at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It looks to me like this NAM run is going to be a tick south still with the heaviest precipitation..but that was a big jump northward so we have to watch this carefully. The ARW is probably out to lunch but fun to look at...MECS for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM at 42 hours further west and wetter than at 48 hours at 6zwarmer I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It looks to me like this NAM run is going to be a tick south still with the heaviest precipitation..but that was a big jump northward so we have to watch this carefully. The ARW is probably out to lunch but fun to look at...MECS for everybody. Yup. NAM came way North but the heaviest still in the new snow belt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 warmer I assume? Surfaces are ok with this , most of the modeling s 850`s are Below 0 , and the surface is around 0c . Worry more about precip the column will cool if it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This will be a great run for Central NJ and a good run for areas south of NYC...good VV's get up to about NYC at 51 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ha ha. Monmouth County again FTW at 51! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It is way too inconsistent for my liking. It doesn't really go in either direction, sometimes it is way too wet and amped, sometimes it will be too suppressed until the last moment. It has had its well forecast systems, but for the most part it is just eye candy -- a very unreliable model with good graphics and resolution. At least to me. Sounds like an excellent idea for a dissertation...one that would be way outta my league. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Heavy Snow CNJ on south hr 51 on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It looks to me like this NAM run is going to be a tick south still with the heaviest precipitation..but that was a big jump northward so we have to watch this carefully. The ARW is probably out to lunch but fun to look at...MECS for everybody. How has the ARW been performing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well...break em out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its a tick N at 48 as compared to its 54 , the SLP is about 50m N , wasn't a huge jump , but its a little better oops just saw hr 51 , NICE TICK N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Big hit NYC South at 54. Heavy snow. Over QPF'd NAM run? Fairly close to the ARW but South. Getting interesting. NAM is North of 6z by some 75 miles or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.25" north of NYC...0.50" kissing Anthony's bum on the South Shore of Brooklyn...0.75" from Philly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This has room to come N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.25" north of NYC...0.50" kissing Anthony's bum on the South Shore of Brooklyn...0.75" from Philly south. Starting to sound more than just a minor/nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Should we be worried about temps? Nam cuts it very close to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Should we be worried about temps? Nam cuts it very close to start.imo yes but many are saying vvs and heavy rates will overcome...gotta see how heavy we precipitate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Should we be worried about temps? Nam cuts it very close to start. not with cold air pouring in as it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Starting to sound more than just a minor/nuisance event. Yes, it does sound like we've been harping on later events, and this one is starting to look like a real threat. Even Bill Evans mentioned "snow showers" for Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 imo yes but many are saying vvs and heavy rates will overcome...gotta see how heavy we precipitate HR 51 850 Minus 4 Surface 30 - Hour Minus 6 Surface 29 KNYC , you`re pretty close to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I am making an extreme example but it snowed on October 29, 2011 and November 7, 2012 and both have similar sun angle to Early-mid Feb( 31° to 35°), and temps at onset were in the upper 30's, and I am confident with this one that sun angle is not a major player until after Feb 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like a 7-9 hour wet snow paste job nyc south. Which i think would compensate for the warm pavement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like a 7-9 hour wet snow paste job nyc south. Which i think would compensate for the warm pavement Ground extremely cold; it doesn't just warm up at least in the suburbs, NYC different animal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At this date (Feb 1st) the sun has only gained about 6 degrees from the winter solstice. It will gain about 10 degrees more between now and March 1st...then you can worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 sun angle only matters when the event is marginally cold. it can snow during the day in april and stick to roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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