EasternLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Imho 3-6" will be a uniform range from phl to nyc with Monmouth county leading the way yet again. You know, we really haven't been doing too bad out this way either...(sorry OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It probably will end up more north than most guidance has now minus the GGEM, I would expect slightly north of the Euro/GFS and way north of where the NAM is. The 06Z RGEM at 54 hours looked very north, so much so DCA/BWI were almost entirely rain. Nice. The 0z Euro from 2 nights ago jackpots my BY, but thinking that was too juiced based on trends. We will get ours in the Great NW in due time... I grew up in Monmouth County hating Sussex County. Now I live in Sussex County and... Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What do the latest sref's show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nice. The 0z Euro from 2 nights ago jackpots my BY, but thinking that was too juiced based on trends. We will get ours in the Great NW in due time... I grew up in Monmouth County hating Sussex County. Now I live in Sussex County and... Yeah. Lol benchmark I grew up in Sayreville middlesex county hating northwest nj....I am up here as well now....the irony... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What do the latest sref's show?Out in 50 mins. Last run was .32 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks wolf. That .32 supports my 3-6" call for the city proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DT going 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol benchmark I grew up in Sayreville middlesex county hating northwest nj....I am up here as well now....the irony...Misery loves company bro. I have a feeling ours is coming. Just hoping for a nice freshening on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It was encouraging to see the SREF tick wetter overnight, but I really would've liked the Euro to hold serve. If we tick south toward the Euro solution this will become a nuisance event at best for most people north of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It was encouraging to see the SREF tick wetter overnight, but I really would've liked the Euro to hold serve. If we tick south toward the Euro solution this will become a nuisance event at best for most people north of Trenton.euro still has some ok qpf though. A blend of ec and gfs seems logical right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Warm bl and daytime warming are the only 2 concerns I have...not how far south this will track...she's going to b e north of guidance based on past experience with these swfe's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Warm bl and daytime warming are the only 2 concerns I have...not how far south this will track...she's going to b e north of guidance based on past experience with these swfe's It snowed on 11/7/12 (same sun angle as early Feb) and accumulated with warm ground temps 2/10/10: 33-34F during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It was encouraging to see the SREF tick wetter overnight, but I really would've liked the Euro to hold serve. If we tick south toward the Euro solution this will become a nuisance event at best for most people north of Trenton. Agree with this. Can go either way right now, warmth the day before will hurt us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DT's first guess - area-wide 3-6" from NYC, southward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF have tightened the gradient...similar to last run in NYC. 0.50 looks to run from PHL south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Upon further inspection the 0.5" may actually get up to Trenton and run through Monmouth Co. 0.25" is north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Upon further inspection the 0.5" may actually get up to Trenton and run through Monmouth Co. 0.25" is north of NYC. Yep. Looks like .5 line from ttn-freehold-asbury park .25 I-80-ct shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Upon further inspection the 0.5" may actually get up to Trenton and run through Monmouth Co. 0.25" is north of NYC. Man I'm tired of being just a hair north of the heaviest action; seems when I was a kid we always had more the Woodbridge area than points south, which turned to rain faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 9z SREFs gradient tighter versus 3z with stronger vort. Little change in .25 line (just north of NYC/north shore of LI), but .50 line is roughly across I-195 which is north of 3z. Spread continues biased to the north. Large area of 1.00+ across Virginia, almost to DCA. Still believe this will trend further north based on the vort continued to be modeled stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Man I'm tired of being just a hair north of the heaviest action; seems when I was a kid we always had more the Woodbridge area than points south, which turned to rain faster. Yes and if you get a 2007-08 solution in Feb where a SWFE thumps you and you turn to ice or rain lol. coast has been winning since March 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This run got much wetter over much of NJ, but drier north of NYC in Southeast NY and CT. The 0.50" line moved north 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Man I'm tired of being just a hair north of the heaviest action; seems when I was a kid we always had more the Woodbridge area than points south, which turned to rain faster. How do you think I feel about this? I live just to the north of I-80 and it's really rare to get into the heaviest snow. I guess it's time for me to move? Anyway, congrats again for Monmouth County. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 How do you think I feel about this? I live just to the north of I-80 and it's really rare to get into the heaviest snow. I guess it's time for me to move? Anyway, congrats again for Monmouth County. Sent from my HTC PH39100 Me too. In my second winter here, I'm learning that it snows more often but every single major event, we have had less than either North of us or South of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 How do you think I feel about this? I live just to the north of I-80 and it's really rare to get into the heaviest snow. I guess it's time for me to move? Anyway, congrats again for Monmouth County. Sent from my HTC PH39100 How do you think I feel about this? I live just to the north of I-80 and it's really rare to get into the heaviest snow. I guess it's time for me to move? Anyway, congrats again for Monmouth County. Sent from my HTC PH39100 yeah that used to be the jackpot area up your way; we' d turn to rain after 2-3 inches while north would get 4-8. And Monmouth got slop. Feel like I'm either too far north or too far south, though 2010-11 was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM is a bit more amplified with the shortwave of importance through 15 hours..and less suppressive with the height field to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Monmouth county jackpot ? Wow that's a new idea Seems to be the case since March 09, along with parts of LI. 09-10 was the starkest, tho admittedly even further south was the real jackpot. Cape May with twice the snow of NYC? I think Balt wound up with a total of 87 inches, missing only the last storm, which also kinda missed my area ( 8 inches in Woodbridge compared to much higher amounts north ) This storm is looking the same, oh well we are out of snow days here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah to me it's really remarkable how many times the heavy banding has set up over pretty much the same area and right around freehold. They deserve it though, because there's been many times they've rained with snow JUST to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM is a bit more amplified with the shortwave of importance through 15 hours..and less suppressive with the height field to the north. My impression is you guys don't like the NAM much, but didn't it get the late March storm right last winter? Seems like any model can turn out being right at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The greater separation between the Great Lakes energy and the disturbance which will eventually cause our precipitation argues that this run will trend farther north toward the other global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 My impression is you guys don't like the NAM much, but didn't it get the late March storm right last winter? Seems like any model can turn out being right at times. It is way too inconsistent for my liking. It doesn't really go in either direction, sometimes it is way too wet and amped, sometimes it will be too suppressed until the last moment. It has had its well forecast systems, but for the most part it is just eye candy -- a very unreliable model with good graphics and resolution. At least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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