Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GGEM snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GGEM close up snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro is a nice event for Philly and South Jersey. NYC gets at least 1-3 inches on this run. South from 12z but no big deal. Looks warm for Philly and SNJ verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks warm for Philly and SNJ verbatim That's why I deleted my post. I saw the temps after I made the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snow maps please. I'm really praying that the GGEM scores a coup. It's showing a solid 5-8 Inches for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That's why I deleted my post. I saw the temps after I made the post. Oh sorry. I didn't see. Anyway nice little event for our area on the Euro. Its certainly not the GGEM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 .1 line runs through extreme NNJ through just nw of NYC and clips the southern Conn coastline. .1-.2 for NNJ. .3 CNJ. .2-.3 on LI. Much heavier precip 30-60 miles south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That's why I deleted my post. I saw the temps after I made the post. Its 4-6" snow from Monmouth through Philly and southeast above cape may. It's a 33 degree paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Somehow my weeniebell snow maps are showing 4+ for Philly and SNJ even though its warm for the first half of the storm. I guess it could be a wet snow bomb for them. Idk. Area temps for us hover around freezing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 1-3" for our area from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Somehow my weeniebell snow maps are showing 4+ for Philly and SNJ even though its warm for the first half of the storm. I guess it could be a wet snow bomb for them. Idk. Area temps for us hover around freezing as well.Feb 10th 2010 we pasted bombed 17" of snow at 33-34 degrees. Ratios were like 7-8:1 but man, what a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GGEM total snow through 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Verbatim, the above would put most of us over 50" by the end of its run. Not bad for the upcoming cutter fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feb 10th 2010 we pasted bombed 17" of snow at 33-34 degrees. Ratios were like 7-8:1 but man, what a storm. Yeah I remember temps were supposed to crash through the 20s and I believe blizzard warnings were up but it stayed a heavy wet snow the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I like to see the navgem like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I like to see the navgem like this With the progressive bias of the model that should be the furthest southeast...Makes one wonder if other guidance is to far Southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 3z sref mean KNYC 0.32" Kblm 0.43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 6z gfs better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Swfe's almost always end up farther north than progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z RGEM ensembles are virtually all heavy hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NWS in NYC has issued a snowfall map already and they appear to be relatively bullish with amounts for the Monday system, with 2-4" across NYC metro, including NE NJ counties (south of Bergen/Passaic) and LI (where they note some mixing may occur on the south shore, while calling for all snow everywhere else), and 1-2" across most of the rest of the region, except the far norther sections (Orange-Putnam-interior CT), which would get 1" or less. Hopefully, the system puts some snow down before sunrise on Monday, as otherwise, I'd be concerned about borderline boundary layer (surface) temps holding down accumulations during the day, especially with the increased sun angle in early February and especially when precip is light (as we should all keep in mind, we'll get accumulation during the day in the mid-30s as long as we have moderate intensity snow or more). NWS in Philly is less committal and actually kind of sparse in their discussion, only commenting that snow will be heaviest for Philly and South Jersey. I asume they think there will still be some snow in Central/Norh Jersey, but no intel from the AFD. My hourly weather graphic for Metuchen shows 2.2" of snow from Monday 6 am through 6 pm THE FIRST EVENT IS EXPECTED TO START MONDAY MORNING, THEN LASTTHROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW,WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT PHILADELPHIA SOUTH AND EAST. THE00Z GFS ACTUALLY STARTS THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATTER HALFOF THE MORNING COMMUTE, WHICH IS JUST A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSRUNS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INJUST BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE. HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF WITH THETIMING WITH THIS EVENT...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NECESSARY.http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 6z GFS is nearly 2-4" for all of nj into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is almost certainly going to trend wetter for NYC. Sit tight and enjoy the next couple of days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Fwiw, the King seems to be back... The 6z NAM is still S but getting there and the GFS has climbed N substantially to be in line with the Euro. Dr. No seems to be Dr. Yes so far for this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Fwiw, the King seems to be back... The 6z NAM is still S but getting there and the GFS has climbed N substantially to be in line with the Euro. Dr. No seems to be Dr. Yes so far for this week... Lets hope it rides its 0z run for next weekend with a PDII-redux it showed this morning. ( i know nothing to do with this storm ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 6Z GEFS continues its trend north this time the 0.25 line moved 50 -75 miles north from 0Z and now is over southern part of NYC - this storm is still trending so have to wait till it stops to try and pin down specific accumulations right now a general 2 -4 for starters http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014020106/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Swfe's almost always end up farther north than progged The NAM is most notorious for having that problem, especially from 36-60 hours, as a matter of fact the NAM has frequently been more accurate beyond 60 hours with SWFEs then from 36-60, for whatever reason it has a bad south bias in that window before catching on inside 36....the issue with this event though is not so much the track as it is the models not grasping the strength of the vort at 500mb...the key to watch with this event too is that there may be more snow generated on the north side even with the models that have more southern tracks because the aid of the overrunning as that high starts to cross into upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The NAM is most notorious for having that problem, especially from 36-60 hours, as a matter of fact the NAM has frequently been more accurate beyond 60 hours with SWFEs then from 36-60, for whatever reason it has a bad south bias in that window before catching on inside 36....the issue with this event though is not so much the track as it is the models not grasping the strength of the vort at 500mb...the key to watch with this event too is that there may be more snow generated on the north side even with the models that have more southern tracks because the aid of the overrunning as that high starts to cross into upstate NY.Interesting. Are you hedging more N or S trend given what you're seeing. Props for calling this DAYS ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Imho 3-6" will be a uniform range from phl to nyc with Monmouth county leading the way yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Interesting. Are you hedging more N or S trend given what you're seeing. Props for calling this DAYS ago... It probably will end up more north than most guidance has now minus the GGEM, I would expect slightly north of the Euro/GFS and way north of where the NAM is. The 06Z RGEM at 54 hours looked very north, so much so DCA/BWI were almost entirely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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