SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 4k NAM is well NW of the op I can never figure out how those 2 operate, it seems 8 out of 10 times they are similar overall but there is that case here or there where they differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 And you know definitely that will happen with other storms because the models indicate that??? They are that reliable. Don't know yet - but that southeast ridge is there ready to do its dirty work - but monday is looking like the best chance and the NW trend this winter should get NYC and maybe even the lower Hudson Valley into the accumulating snow could be a situation of Yonkers getting a coating and southern half of staten island through central NJ getting 2 -4 or 3 - 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS is caving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS is caving... Sort of. The precip shield moved miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS is caving... A bit north of 18z, a trend, not a cave. Not like the Euro but its gotten better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS is caving... Its north of 18z...idk about caving. The models seem to be all over the place still. This might come in looking like the 12z GGEM...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its north of 18z...idk about caving. The models seem to be all over the place still. This might come in looking like the 12z GGEM...we'll see.1" near Sandy Hook. It's GGEM like, a bit drier.Still dont buy the Euro's higher numbers yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A bit north of 18z, a trend, not a cave. Not like the Euro but its gotten better. It's a large move from the 18z run. Considering the pattern depicted, not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 .1" near Sandy Hook. It's GGEM like, a bit drier. Still dont buy the Euro's higher numbers yet. Yea ended up being close to the GGEM but drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z GGEM is way north http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I heard from Accuweather that the 00Z UKMET has a big hit for NYC. Can anyone confirm that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z GGEM is way north http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg Wow, you think temps will be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z GGEM is way north http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg Nice hit for Philly now. Maybe an inch or so NNJ into NYC. Maybe it's not done trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z GGEM is way north http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg It seems to me that the trough digging out west is amplifying the SE ridge a bit and causing this wave to track more north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I heard from Accuweather that the 00Z UKMET has a big hit for NYC. Can anyone confirm that? I cannot see the precip maps yet but based on its 500mb depiction at 60-72 hours it probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I heard from Accuweather that the 00Z UKMET has a big hit for NYC. Can anyone confirm that? .25" line is into Brooklyn. Ggem is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the models are coming into agreement, at this point it looks like the city will get snow unless this thing keep trending north then it could even be rain to snow or just rain. At this time I still would favor snow. Interesting enought the GEM trended south on the next system. This is weather irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the models are coming into agreement, at this point it looks like the city will get snow unless this thing keep trending north then it could even be rain to snow or just rain. At this time I still would favor snow. Interesting enought the GEM trended south on the next system. This is weather irony. I noticed that the first storm on the 00Z GFS put a damper on the rising heights off the EC and helped out with a colder solution. Could the GGEM be doing the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Was it like when the euro had its super amped run for monday, it was further south with wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the models are coming into agreement, at this point it looks like the city will get snow unless this thing keep trending north then it could even be rain to snow or just rain. At this time I still would favor snow. Interesting enought the GEM trended south on the next system. This is weather irony. Its entirely possible a stronger version of the first system can make the 2nd one better...I'm not really seeing why because that first system even if its north is not terribly amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Was it like when the euro had its super amped run for monday, it was further south with wednesday? The GGEM? Almost, but not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The GGEM? Almost, but not quite. Yeah. Hope euro stays amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah, the GGEM is a pretty big hit. 0.75"+ contour to Sandy Hook. 0.50"+ to I-80. Snow maps showing 4-6" in most of NJ and 2-4" north of I-78, the city and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the models are coming into agreement, at this point it looks like the city will get snow unless this thing keep trending north then it could even be rain to snow or just rain. At this time I still would favor snow. Interesting enought the GEM trended south on the next system. This is weather irony. I hope it doesn't trend too far north then though several models are still quite a bit further south so I don't think it'll get to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 forget the snow maps...this is very close to a big hit on the ggem. It's def an advisory event on this model and very close to being bigger. Talking about nnj,seny including nyc and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I hope it doesn't trend too far north then though several models are still quite a bit further south so I don't think it'll get to that point. Cannot see it happening at all, better chance it misses completely I think than seeing it end up too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GEFS mean is still a glancing blow, guessing the members are still pretty split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Several of the SREF individuals have very high QPF in a narrow band. The individuals are often grossly overdone, but there does appear to be a sneaky high QPF signal on several pieces of guidance, which doesn't seem so unreasonable given the Gulf connection and jet structure. But the wave is dampening with time so I would favor southwestern areas over northeastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Really nice hit on the GGEM. Going to be interesting to see what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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