BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM Should follow suite. Let's hope it has one of its crazy amped up solutions as usual! Regardless, 1-3 maybe 2-4 inches looks like a good bet. Nice heavy wet sticky snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I could see 3-6" if this keeps trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What sites do you guys use for the sref? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakeNBake22z Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What sites do you guys use for the sref? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its the arw members, 0.84" at kblm.. Mean 0.38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah because I don't see the sref out 21z yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its the arw members, 0.83" at kblm.. Mean 0.38" ARW shockingly did good last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah because I don't see the sref out 21z yet It's available on the NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I usually use :http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ Weatherbell has no good sref maps? But yes.....it is a solid hit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah its the ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can already tell through 42 hrs NAM is going to be more amped, not sure if it will be like the Euro but it's definitely going to be further north than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can already tell through 42 hrs NAM is going to be more amped, not sure if it will be like the Euro but it's definitely going to be further north than 18z Out to 60 it looks further north but its not gonna cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Another big miss to the South. Man, what a year for South Jerz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Out to 60 it looks further north but its not gonna cut it How far north is the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM not too much different than 18z. Southern NJ gets clipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Extreme SNJ. Not even close for NYC, but N of 18z. How far north is the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Too bad it's the NAM past 3 hours, though. Not a useful model still applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Trend is our friend! Deff Inprovements at H5 With the Shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam did amp it up from 18z though it has yet to show much at the surface. It's still out of range though and i strongly believe it will keep trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It kicked another 30 miles or so north....like the SREFs. Still plenty of time for this to trend further north. Dont know what there wasn't to like about this run...its about the trend, give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The NAM has stubbornly refused to follow the SREFs for the last 2 storms, the one up here and the one down in the south, in both cases it ended up being wrong, still want to see the GFS move north but the SREFs have been on fire as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 From Wes in the mid Atlantic thread- the vort track would suggest an expansion to the north. it also explains why the model is forecasting pretty decent qp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 From Wes in the mid Atlantic thread- the vort track would suggest an expansion to the north. it also explains why the model is forecasting pretty decent qp. The SREF individuals are largely all or nothing....out of the 21 members, 10 are in the all category, 7 in the nothing and 4 in the in between similar to the NAM depiction...in that case I'd lean towards the idea this is going to go more north, I'd feel real good in PHL/ACY right now and not quite as good here, DCA/BWI I'd definitely be worried this ends up too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks as though the Monday storm holds the greatest potential for accumulating snow next week from NYC south - because the southeast ridge has a good chance of messing up our next 2 chances after that as the storms look like they will cut west of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The NAM has trended north a little on the precip, but the 500MB short is significantly stronger an d for the NAM so far out I think the chances has increased up to 70% at this moment, the GFS run and tha all important ECMWF will give me a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks as though the Monday storm holds the greatest potential for accumulating snow next week from NYC south - because the southeast ridge has a good chance of messing up our next 2 chances after that as the storms look like they will cut west of us... And you know definitely that will happen with other storms because the models indicate that??? They are that reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It will take at lease 4 more runs before this event is really clear to me. Unless they keep flip flopping, but at this time I do not think they will flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 4k NAM is well NW of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The RGEM is similar to the NAM through 48, it is ever so slightly stronger at 500mb at the 48 hour period....its not quite as strong as the ARW though which came way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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