Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Precip shield and center at 18z at 66 hrs are 100 miles north than at 72 he's at 12z. 1st step in the nam moving N The SREF Canadian and Euro have this. I expect the nam and gfs to join soon enough They look to be converging. The Euro went south some...the nam north some. The GGEM might be a good compromise. (I usually don't like following the GGEM or NAM in any situation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 It is a step toward the Euro. It brings the 0.10" line into southern New Jersey. On the 12z run, the 0.10" line was just south of Delaware. given that the Euro has basically held serve on this one, expect the nam and others to inch north in subsequent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SREFs and NAM both made a decent leap northward this afternoon. Pattern dictates that these will trend much more towards the Euro solution than vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They look to be converging. The Euro went south some...the nam north some. The GGEM might be a good compromise. (I usually don't like following the GGEM or NAM in any situation) Agree given that the Euro has basically held serve on this one, expect the nam and others to inch north in subsequent runs Euro went from around .7" for the area at 0z to about .4" at 12z. It moved south a bit. GGEM solution, a middle ground, would be the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 given that the Euro has basically held serve on this one, expect the nam and others to inch north in subsequent runs Euro moved south today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Agree Euro went from around .7" for the area at 0z to about .4" at 12z. It moved south a bit. GGEM solution, a middle ground, would be the most likely scenario. GGEM is barely .10" for NYC. That isn't a middle ground. The middle ground right now are the 15z srefs, which have .21" for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM is barely .10" for NYC. That isn't a middle ground. The middle ground right now are the 15z srefs, which have .21" for LGA. Based on the map just posted by +SNfreak21 there's definitely more than .1" for NYC. And if the GGEM really doesn't have more than 0.1", then I'm surprised the Euro has that much more. By middle ground I mean the avg. of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 5mm makes it to Southern NYC= 0.2in QPF, next contour in NENJ is 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 5mm makes it to Southern NYC= 0.2in QPF When I said NYC, I meant KNYC or Central Park. GGEM is 3.5mm-4mm for KNYC or only .13"-.15". Srefs are over .20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think this is a 1-3" situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Based on the map just posted by +SNfreak21 there's definitely more than .1" for NYC. And if the GGEM really doesn't have more than 0.1", then I'm surprised the Euro has that much more. By middle ground I mean the avg. of all the models. It is around .1 if you convert mm to inches. But it looks like a decent middle ground to me as of now. I can't argue going with the serfs either though. .1-.25 looks like a decent forecast for now for nyc metro Edit: im blind and they need a new color scheme. It's closer to .15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It is around .1 if you convert mm to inches. But it looks like a decent middle ground to me as of now. I can't argue going with the serfs either though. .1-.25 looks like a decent forecast for now for nyc metro GGEM is about .13-.15" for NYC. .1-.25" is reasonable, think the Euro is too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GGEM is about .13-.15" for NYC. .1-.25" is reasonable, think the Euro is too much. Yea I edited my post as you posted this. Just so people know one mm is about .039 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 given that the Euro has basically held serve on this one, expect the nam and others to inch north in subsequent runs euro shifted south a lot from 0z so not sure about the holding serve part. I am in the same boat here wanting a more north solution but even worse being due west of NYC in central pa. But when only one model has sig precip north I don't want to see it start trending south at all. A compromise solution seems likely and that prob means another Philly hit and miss up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mount holly ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE IN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. THIS IS WHEN THE FUN BEGINS... THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAST CAN WE COOL THE COLUMN, OR MAINLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE NEXT MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACK ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND NAM (THE AMERICANS) HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING A BULK OF THE QPF AND ENERGY ACROSS OUR DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ ZONES. THE OTHER GUIDANCE (THE NON-AMERICANS) HAVE A DEEPER BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW AND BRING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF AND BETTER FORCING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEING THAT THE OLYMPICS ARE STILL A WEEK AWAY IT IS OK TO NOT ROOT FOR THE AMERICANS IN THIS SINCE. THE OVERALL TREND THIS ENTIRE WINTER HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER THAN FORECASTED SYSTEM THAT TENDS TO TRACK/PROGRESS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ONCE WE GET WITHIN 3-4 DAYS OF AN EVENT. THAT BEING SAID IT SEEMS THAT THE UKMET/NH-GEM/EURO HAVE BEEN DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. DID NOT FORECAST THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT THEY ARE SPITTING OUT JUST YET AS WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THIS BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY WE ARE LOOKING A DECENT SNOWFALL EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS gets some light precip up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS tending north again. Still not a hit for NYC but much better. This is starting to get my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The southern stream s/w is a little sharper this run. With a southerly flow straight out of the Gulf, this doesn't have to be that dynamic to get a plowable event. Another tick or two stronger by 36hrs or 42hours and the precip shield would come 100 miles north. Good step from the GFS. Although it's more likely a move towards consensus as opposed to a sustained north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Love the olympic reference in the afd Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mount holly ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE IN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. THIS IS WHEN THE FUN BEGINS... THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAST CAN WE COOL THE COLUMN, OR MAINLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE NEXT MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACK ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND NAM (THE AMERICANS) HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING A BULK OF THE QPF AND ENERGY ACROSS OUR DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ ZONES. THE OTHER GUIDANCE (THE NON-AMERICANS) HAVE A DEEPER BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW AND BRING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF AND BETTER FORCING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEING THAT THE OLYMPICS ARE STILL A WEEK AWAY IT IS OK TO NOT ROOT FOR THE AMERICANS IN THIS SINCE. THE OVERALL TREND THIS ENTIRE WINTER HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER THAN FORECASTED SYSTEM THAT TENDS TO TRACK/PROGRESS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ONCE WE GET WITHIN 3-4 DAYS OF AN EVENT. THAT BEING SAID IT SEEMS THAT THE UKMET/NH-GEM/EURO HAVE BEEN DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. DID NOT FORECAST THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT THEY ARE SPITTING OUT JUST YET AS WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THIS BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY WE ARE LOOKING A DECENT SNOWFALL EVENT. Mt. Holly only has a 30 percent chance of snow for monday in central NJ zones - so they are taking a really conservative approach http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Forky will prob be right like he always is when he said well prob see more snow with this than wednesdays storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 American model suite trending north this afternoon. The guidance has been too weak with vorts all winter (12/8, 1/2, 1/21, 1/25, 1/29) up until show time. Only difference this time is the Euro has latched on early (because its in the subtropical stream?) Writing is on the wall, models will trend stronger and further north all weekend...3 to 6 event area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 18z GEFS are still pretty far south. A few light hits and one wet, north solution, but mostly misses and grazers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 18z GEFS are still pretty far south. A few light hits and one wet, north solution, but mostly misses and grazers. The mean is still 200 miles north from its 12z run, precip on both are still crud but trend is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 18Z RGEM which goes out 54 hours looks almost identical to the NAM/GFS through 54 hours, it is wetter and maybe 75-100 miles NW over AR/MO/KY but overall the difference clearly is becoming what occurs after 60 hours or so, the GFS/NAM overall want to shear and dampen the system out while the other models do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I went for a 60% chance of snow for NYC on Monday. To me this winter this type of system seems to track more nw and stronger. Just look at our past snows and even Wednesday projected rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakeNBake22z Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 21z SREF has a nice NW shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Big north shift on the sref. 0.25+ for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The southern stream s/w is a little sharper this run. With a southerly flow straight out of the Gulf, this doesn't have to be that dynamic to get a plowable event. Another tick or two stronger by 36hrs or 42hours and the precip shield would come 100 miles north. Good step from the GFS. Although it's more likely a move towards consensus as opposed to a sustained north trend. Love your analysis in these threads. Are you giving thoughts from an Albany perspective or a NYC area perspective? You guys should cash in nicely on Wednesday I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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