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Feb 3rd event


Brian5671

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  On 2/2/2014 at 6:57 PM, Tom Gambatese said:

Does there seem to be any mixing issues for Eatontown nj at the start.

Sent from my SCH-I545

 

 

  On 2/2/2014 at 7:02 PM, YanksFan27 said:

Can we please not have IMBY questions. Check out your local forecast at nws.gov or by taking the time to simply read this forum.

 

+1

 

Tom (and sferic), IMBY questions clutter threads otherwise devoted to model analysis, interpretation, and obs.  Just think if everyone in this forum posted (and responded to) IMBY questions... it would be a giant cluster and of little value to the broad community.

 

Thanks guys.

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:07 PM, Superstorm93 said:

Flow is coming right out of the Gulf boys...

 

attachicon.gifgrearth 2014-02-02 14-03-07-78.png

This is going to be a very juiced system. Very different from the January storms that were Arctic-front based and didn't collect moisture until they were here, much wetter snow this time. I'm excited for this one.

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:06 PM, NEG NAO said:

Upton in its 1 PM udate still going with 2 -4 no advisories or warnings will be issued yet 

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html

Could be that they were waiting for all the 12z runs. They might post them for the afternoon package in a hour or so.

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:07 PM, Superstorm93 said:

Flow is coming right out of the Gulf boys...

 

attachicon.gifgrearth 2014-02-02 14-03-07-78.png

 

Yes, this is why I am bullish for big snows in the next few events.  As it stands now, best snow axis looks to be north of NYC with storm 2.  Storm 3 could very well be a KU but is still way off on the horizon. 

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:13 PM, danstorm said:

Yes, this is why I am bullish for big snows in the next few events.  As it stands now, best snow axis looks to be north of NYC with storm 2.  Storm 3 could very well be a KU but is still way off on the horizon.

I think next weekend is DC to Boston , I like the look of the euro, it splits the energy so the trough are pos tilted and come

Under the confluence. Then they will the gulf open . Then once to the east coast they aren't fast movers.

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:13 PM, danstorm said:

Yes, this is why I am bullish for big snows in the next few events.  As it stands now, best snow axis looks to be north of NYC with storm 2.  Storm 3 could very well be a KU but is still way off on the horizon. 

Good times ahead!! Hopefully the Euro woke up on Wednesday's storm. Wouldn't want to disturb our glacier, lol.

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:13 PM, danstorm said:

Yes, this is why I am bullish for big snows in the next few events.  As it stands now, best snow axis looks to be north of NYC with storm 2.  Storm 3 could very well be a KU but is still way off on the horizon. 

See, this is what confuses the nonpro like me. Accuweather thinks the upcoming storms are rainmakers here and snow for the upper Midwest. Who do I believe? A few days ago this storm looked like nothing.....

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:09 PM, jm1220 said:

This is going to be a very juiced system. Very different from the January storms that were Arctic-front based and didn't collect moisture until they were here, much wetter snow this time. I'm excited for this one.

 

Noticed that when I had my coffee this morning, and I do like the chances of an over-performer for all areas with this one. 

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:13 PM, FreeRain said:

In my view not a reason not to issue advisories and warnings.

 

Yes but they can still wait until this evening's package to hoist them.  It is still (I think) a 3rd period event, though I'm fuzzy on exactly what defines which periods and how long they can wait until putting up advisories.

 

Pretty sure if they issued a watch now some people would misinterpret this ... I really have no evidence but I'm pretty sure they are delaying with so much attention placed on the SB and all the focus that has been on the weather for gameday the last few weeks.

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:19 PM, weatherpruf said:

See, this is what confuses the nonpro like me. Accuweather thinks the upcoming storms are rainmakers here and snow for the upper Midwest. Who do I believe? A few days ago this storm looked like nothing.....

Who do you think you should believe?

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:18 PM, NEXtreme said:

This should be about Public awareness and safety first not over some football game!

I don't think the professionals at NWS really care about the SB in their decision making. I think they want to see more info. They are holding back for some reason, but it ain't a football game.

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:19 PM, weatherpruf said:

See, this is what confuses the nonpro like me. Accuweather thinks the upcoming storms are rainmakers here and snow for the upper Midwest. Who do I believe? A few days ago this storm looked like nothing.....

 

Not to bash Accuweather, I have had friends go work for them... but they aren't the best source of information on upcoming winter storms.  Plus their latest updates likely do not incorporate the trends of the 12Z suite which have been colder and more frozen.

 

Storms 2 or 3 could still very well be more wet than white but I think those solutions are becoming less likely.  Sill a long way to go before Storm 3. 

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:20 PM, danstorm said:

Yes but they can still wait until this evening's package to hoist them.  It is still (I think) a 3rd period event, though I'm fuzzy on exactly what defines which periods and how long they can wait until putting up advisories.

 

Pretty sure if they issued a watch now some people would misinterpret this ... I really have no evidence but I'm pretty sure they are delaying with so much attention placed on the SB and all the focus that has been on the weather for gameday the last few weeks.

we are within 24 hours of start time.  we are under the temporal umbrella for a warning

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  On 2/2/2014 at 7:23 PM, forkyfork said:

we are within 24 hours of start time.  we are under the temporal umbrella for a warning

 

Yes, but not always - oftentimes they will wait until the very last minute before making a call on a Watch area to Advisory or Warning... do you know what is the latest they can wait before putting something up?

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