BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Through HR 33 We Have Higher Heights Compared to HR 39 on the 18Z! This should allow for less suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hr 36 Light snow continuing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nam is a tick south with the heavier precip @ 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:16 AM, BrooklynSnow97 said: Through HR 33 We Have Higher Heights Compared to HR 39 on the 18Z! This should allow for less suppression But somehow the Steady Snow misses NYC at HR 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The NAM is shearing this out. It's further north with the initial overrunning but heavier precip stays south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 deff more suppressed this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:14 AM, PB GFI said: Thank you. With wife gotta go before she hurts me lolSref plumes are about 6" for you budhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140201&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BLM&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.58927533332726&mLON=-72.69309397385656&mTYP=roadmap There must be mixing or crappy ratios further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The H5 vort de-amplifies a bit more than the 18Z NAM and results in a heavy precip condenser. The 18Z NAM was a bit more loose with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Strange run....it just fizzles. Snow maps show about 2" for NYC and just 3-4" max for interior central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow at hr 42 it's about 75 miles south of 18z. It's the NAM, I don't expect the 0z suite to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's Wrong I Can Bet On It! The Vort Will Not Shear Out Like That! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SV maps don't have anyone getting over 2". But it's the NAM, so it is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Very odd run, usually it follows the SREFS to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The qpf output is not south, though. It shows the snow depth by the end of the storm as 1-2" for NYC and 1-2" For PHL. There are no heavy amounts anywhere this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:22 AM, TWCCraig said: Wow at hr 42 it's about 75 miles south of 18z. It's the NAM, I don't expect the 0z suite to budge. just don't see this at all looking at the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:05 AM, Allsnow said: Ewr 6.7 sref plumes careful that includes part of next storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RPM https://twitter.com/MascoFromABC2/status/429802219995529216/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just a noise run, NAM always has burps at this range, stick to RGEM/GFS/EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Unless the other models follow suit then I'm not buying it, it's still a bit out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM will be fine by 12z. Good within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:24 AM, BenchmarksTheSpot said: just don't see this at all looking at the maps. I'm looking in reference to the northern fringe of precip. 18z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:26 AM, +SNfreak21 said: RPM https://twitter.com/MascoFromABC2/status/429802219995529216/photo/1/large Is this RPM really accurate ? Never see it used much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Edit: i deleted my other post by accident Bookmark this. The psu ewall has some nice products for the srefs. This is what I like to use. I use wb for the means for cities though. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Can't completely ignore the NAM here, but to be fair it has shown it's tendency to have a big waver in one of it's runs within 36-48 hours. I'll be very watchful of the RGEM runs....It's been pretty good at times this winter. It was one of the first to really bark on our last storm and was pretty close to the final solution that came about. EURO too should be watched as it kind of caught this threat a bit more and was suggestive of a significant QPF possibility. If it starts backing off and suppressing a la the NAM, then I think there's something to watch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:33 AM, Rjay said: Edit: i deleted my other post by accident Bookmark this. The psu ewall has some nice products for the srefs. This is what I like to use. I use wb for the means for cities though. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html I shall bookmark that, thank you. Probably the best sref link I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:35 AM, WintersGrasp said: I shall bookmark that, thank you. Probably the best sref link I've seen Use this for the snow plumes. Use the map and zoom in and find a station near you http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:32 AM, WintersGrasp said: Is this RPM really accurate ? Never see it used much terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:28 AM, TWCCraig said: I'm looking in reference to the northern fringe of precip. 18z 0z I was looking at total and not one 3 hour shot. The precip does make it farther North at hours 33-39 (farther than the screen capture you took for hour 42). The total maps look fairly close on the northern extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:42 AM, BenchmarksTheSpot said: I was looking at total and not one 3 hour shot. The precip does make it farther North at hours 33-39 (farther than the screen capture you took for hour 42). The total maps look fairly close on the northern extent. I said when the NAM was 75 miles south, I said it was hr 42. I posted in the page back the the NAM is north with the initial batch of precip and south with the main, heavier precip. In the end, it's not much different, a little less. On 2/2/2014 at 2:22 AM, TWCCraig said: Wow at hr 42 it's about 75 miles south of 18z. It's the NAM, I don't expect the 0z suite to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On 2/2/2014 at 2:24 AM, WintersGrasp said: The qpf output is not south, though. It shows the snow depth by the end of the storm as 1-2" for NYC and 1-2" For PHL. There are no heavy amounts anywhere this run The 0z NAM 4k has > 4" at PHL as per Bufkit. The lowest algorithm for the 0z NAM is 2.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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