SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some front end, but not a ton before temps rapidly warm on Wednesday. This is an (un)happy hour run at the moment. Meh, I don't take this as that bad of a run. Is there any other model that has a southern track like the GFS for the monday storm? If it starts getting some other support I'll be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Meh, I don't take this as that bad of a run. Is there any other model that has a southern track like the GFS for the monday storm? If it starts getting some other support I'll be concerned. I'm not concerned. Just noting what the run looks like. I am the last one on here (well, not the last, that would be SNO) to tell you what the run SHOULD look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Cities warm quick for the Tuesday/Wednesday event, NW ice storm Uh no... DCA is below 32 through 00z THUR... and is like 34 at 03z THUR (10pm Wed night). By then the dryslot comes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not concerned. Just noting what the run looks like. I am the last one on here (well, not the last, that would be SNO) to tell you what the run SHOULD look like. Understand, I guess I'm saying although this run is unhappy it doesn't yet make me unhappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 one rule that seems to work:( is that when the GFS does not show snow and the euro does...the gfs usually wins GFS has been flip-flopping back and forth so it's far from coming to a solution it is going to stick with at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Uh no... DCA is below 32 through 00z THUR... and is like 34 at 03z THUR (10pm Wed night). By then the dryslot comes through My bad, was looking at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Another snow to our southeast then rain would be great.. but only if somehow the weekend event totally screws us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Timing is good...18z GFS will come out well before kickoff...only model that will run during game is SREF and NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Uh no... DCA is below 32 through 00z THUR... and is like 34 at 03z THUR (10pm Wed night). By then the dryslot comes through Yeah it looks like a lot of precip falls before the surface freezing line passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah it looks like a lot of precip falls before the surface freezing line passes. Yoda might be looking at another model. The storm is over at 0z Thursday and it's way above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 you have one american model thats way North(NAM) and one that is way South(GFS) tisk tisk....you failed to look at the SREFs, which if you're going to look at the NAM at 84 you may as well look at the SREFs at 87 hrs. anyway, they look way more supportive of the Euro than NAM in that they are cooler but not as cool as GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 My bad, was looking at 2m That doesn't seem right to me. NCEP 10m temps torch way before then, maybe around midnight Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That doesn't seem right to me. NCEP 10m temps torch way before then, maybe around midnight Wednesday? this is about as good as it gets. some might be freezing in DC but i wouldn't be too excited given it was considerably warmer the panel prior. at 0z on the nose it has raw 32 at DCA but also north of Frederick so I'd be skeptical there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yoda might be looking at another model. The storm is over at 0z Thursday and it's way above freezing. These instantweather maps have the 2m freezing draped across the metro area for the heavier precip.....but yeah it sorta bends around DC, either way its close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Another snow to our southeast then rain would be great.. but only if somehow the weekend event totally screws us too.So far it looks like another bowl of hot buttered f*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yoda might be looking at another model. The storm is over at 0z Thursday and it's way above freezing. I looked at the soundings for DCA of the 18z GFS on AmWx... it said DCA is below freezing or right at it at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 These instantweather maps have the 2m freezing draped across the metro area for the heavier precip.....but yeah it sorta bends around DC, either way its close. eh, guess the parsing of these kind of details is silly. the broad picture is still not great if you want an ice storm around here.. every run has highs booking east as the storm comes in. change that and maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 this is about as good as it gets. some might be freezing in DC but i wouldn't be too excited given it was considerably warmer the panel prior. at 0z on the nose it has raw 32 at DCA but also north of Frederick so I'd be skeptical there too. gfs_6hr_precip_washdc_43 (1).png That map looks great to me, don't be so IMBY . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I looked at the soundings for DCA of the 18z GFS on AmWx... it said DCA is below freezing or right at it at 00z I think you just had the day wrong. At 0z Thursday the low is off the coast of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 eh, guess the parsing of these kind of details is silly. the broad picture is still not great if you want an ice storm around here.. every run has highs booking east as the storm comes in. change that and maybe. True, but yeah either way like someone said earlier, don't look too much at screwjob number 2 until screwjob number 1 is complete (Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think you just had the day wrong. At 0z Thursday the low is off the coast of Maine. Ah ok... that is correct And I always love 1048 H sitting in the Ohio Valley at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That map looks great to me, don't be so IMBY . I don't think it's great for anyone.. most get to or below freezing for like 25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lol. Uni is probably going to destroy us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't think it's great for anyone.. most get to or below freezing for like 25 minutes. Oh well i guess AMWX is not getting to $10,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Oh 18z GFS, you so silly for the Unicorn Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 True, but yeah either way like someone said earlier, don't look too much at screwjob number 2 until screwjob number 1 is complete (Monday). Indeed. Wed has never looked very good anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Its massively wet that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm ignoring that Great Lakes low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Its massively wet that's for sure. WRONG THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ahem.....sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 WRONG THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ahem.....sorry Just realized that. Somebody move it. I'm at the gym supposed to be working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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