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Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler?


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Meh, I don't take this as that bad of a run.  Is there any other model that has a southern track like the GFS for the monday storm?   If it starts getting some other support I'll be concerned. 

 

I'm not concerned. Just noting what the run looks like. I am the last one on here (well, not the last, that would be SNO) to tell you what the run SHOULD look like.

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Yeah it looks like a lot of precip falls before the surface freezing line passes.

Yoda might be looking at another model. The storm is over at 0z Thursday and it's way above freezing. 

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you have one american model thats way North(NAM) and one that is way South(GFS)

tisk tisk....you failed to look at the SREFs, which if you're going to look at the NAM at 84 you may as well look at the SREFs at 87 hrs.

anyway, they look way more supportive of the Euro than NAM in that they are cooler but not as cool as GFS

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That doesn't seem right to me. NCEP 10m temps torch way before then, maybe around midnight Wednesday?

this is about as good as it gets. some might be freezing in DC but i wouldn't be too excited given it was considerably warmer the panel prior.  at 0z on the nose it has raw 32 at DCA but also north of Frederick so I'd be skeptical there too. 

 

post-1615-0-24212800-1391121000_thumb.pn

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These instantweather maps have the 2m freezing draped across the metro area for the heavier precip.....but yeah it sorta bends around DC, either way its close.

eh, guess the parsing of these kind of details is silly. the broad picture is still not great if you want an ice storm around here.. every run has highs booking east as the storm comes in.  change that and maybe.  

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this is about as good as it gets. some might be freezing in DC but i wouldn't be too excited given it was considerably warmer the panel prior.  at 0z on the nose it has raw 32 at DCA but also north of Frederick so I'd be skeptical there too. 

 

attachicon.gifgfs_6hr_precip_washdc_43 (1).png

That map looks great to me, don't be so IMBY  ;) .

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I looked at the soundings for DCA of the 18z GFS on AmWx... it said DCA is below freezing or right at it at 00z

I think you just had the day wrong. At 0z Thursday the low is off the coast of Maine. 

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eh, guess the parsing of these kind of details is silly. the broad picture is still not great if you want an ice storm around here.. every run has highs booking east as the storm comes in.  change that and maybe.  

True, but yeah either way like someone said earlier, don't look too much at screwjob number 2 until screwjob number 1 is complete (Monday).

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True, but yeah either way like someone said earlier, don't look too much at screwjob number 2 until screwjob number 1 is complete (Monday).

Indeed. Wed has never looked very good anyway.  

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