yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 FWIW, since I didn't see it mentioned in here... UKIE looks like we would be fine for Sun night-Monday. Let's just pretend we didn't see UKIE's SLP map for 12z Wed 12z UKIE h5 map at 72 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=QQ500&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=QQ500&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=072 72 SLP -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=072 96 SLP -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Do any of you knowledgeable posters have a report card on how the various computer models have scored thus far this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Do any of you knowledgeable posters have a report card on how the various computer models have scored thus far this winter? We only have the ones that show Winchester and they wouldn't be very useful to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We only have the ones that show Winchester and they wouldn't be very useful to you. Thanks for your help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Do any of you knowledgeable posters have a report card on how the various computer models have scored thus far this winter? I think the accuracies have shifted around quite a bit, but I'm no expert yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Do any of you knowledgeable posters have a report card on how the various computer models have scored thus far this winter? There are, but you must input your location of where you live into the system so that it can accurately give you a report card. It's the only way, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Afternoon LWX disco goes a lil in depth for Sun Night into Mon... broadbrushes Tues/Wed for now .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SATURDAY...MUCH GREATER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN FRIDAY. ANELEVATED INVERSION IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SLYMIXING NEAR THE SFC AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADECENT WARMUP. WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GMOS...UPR 40S NE OF DCAND LOW TO MID 50S SW. MILD NIGHT...ABOVE FREEZING MOST EVERYWHERE.WARM AIR OVER THE FROZEN GROUND SHOULD CAUSE ADVECTION FOG. WENT FORAREAS OF FOG WORDING.SUNDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE STLAWRENCE VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTEDWITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE QUESTION WILL BEWHAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LATE LOOKAT THE 12Z ECMWF STILL SHOWS BANDED PRECIP WITH A RAIN/SNOW LINEOVER THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC. LWX LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SNOW LATE SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 All my eggs are with the first storm. Never look beyond the first screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 All my eggs are with the first storm. Never look beyond the first screwjob. I'm with you on that. Plus, some of our most enjoyable storms are the ones that sneak right up on us as we look far out into the future. This one could potentially fit that bill. And if we ignore Wed until Mon it will get mad at us and get all miller A and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Do any of you knowledgeable posters have a report card on how the various computer models have scored thus far this winter? CRAS is running away with it lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CRAS is running away with it lately. I thought it was the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneFatGuy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Longtime and frequent lurker, extremely rare poster. I write this post to pledge a donation of $10 per inch of snow to the 2014 AmericanWX subscription drive as measured at KDCA for the week Sunday February 2nd - Sunday February 9th. This could be just what this week needs to verify. I'm willing to put my money on it. Who is willing to match my donation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Usually when there are multiple storms stacked up like this one of them washes out and becomes a non factor. Hopefully we keep Monday and next weekend and lose the Wednesday nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Longtime and frequent lurker, extremely rare poster. I write this post to pledge a donation of $10 per inch of snow to the 2014 AmericanWX subscription drive as measured at KDCA for the week Sunday February 2nd - Sunday February 9th. This could be just what this week needs to verify. I'm willing to put my money on it. Who is willing to match my donation? Nice to see you posting. If you had balls you would do it at IAD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Usually when there are multiple storms stacked up like this one of them washes out and becomes a non factor. Hopefully we keep Monday and next weekend and lose the Wednesday nonsense. Imagine if we had said that on 1/30/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm with you on that. Plus, some of our most enjoyable storms are the ones that sneak right up on us as we look far out into the future. This one could potentially fit that bill. And if we ignore Wed until Mon it will get mad at us and get all miller A and stuff. remember a few nights ago when the wizards were beating Golden state at 1:00am and you were sleeping, the euro showed 4 inches of snow for next Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 remember a few nights ago when the wizards were beating Golden state at 1:00am and you were sleeping, the euro showed 4 inches of snow for next Monday? There is probably a better chance of the Wizards getting above .500 than of us getting hit by all 3 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm with you on that. Plus, some of our most enjoyable storms are the ones that sneak right up on us as we look far out into the future. This one could potentially fit that bill. And if we ignore Wed until Mon it will get mad at us and get all miller A and stuff. Who's "it", the weather God's, or the weather council that dictates all weather half hazardly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nice to see you posting. If you had balls you would do it at IAD . Nay...OKV... ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 OFG- Another long-time lurker here. I am willing to match your donation and will use LWX for my snow measurement. $10 for every inch of snow from Sunday, 2/2 through Sunday, 2/9. Any other lurker wanna help fund our voyeur obsession? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 remember a few nights ago when the wizards were beating Golden state at 1:00am and you were sleeping, the euro showed 4 inches of snow for next Monday? I watched the game and went to bed happy. Sometimes it's best to quit while you're ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm with you on that. Plus, some of our most enjoyable storms are the ones that sneak right up on us as we look far out into the future. This one could potentially fit that bill. And if we ignore Wed until Mon it will get mad at us and get all miller A and stuff. that's a good plan.. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I thought it was the DGEX. Close 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nobody cares about the godda*n Wizards. Eff em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Imagine if we had said that on 1/30/10. Those were more spread out than Monday and Wednesday. I don't see both hitting us in a major capacity. One will wash the other out and become dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For someone without a red tag, your detailed analyses are great. I appreciate it but I'm pretty modest. Gotta give credit where credit is due. I had an ok basic understanding when I joined eastern in 06. I learned all the hard stuff from the mets and smart regulars. Wes in particular but there's a long list of people I'm thankful for having a chance to learn from. Anybody can do it if they are willing to sacrifice (or willing waste) hundreds if not thousands of hours watching models and figuring it all out. I personally don't recommend doing what I did and continue to do. I have issues but thankfully winter is short so the grip only lasts 3-4 months tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Those were more spread out than Monday and Wednesday. I don't see both hitting us in a major capacity. One will wash the other out and become dominate. Maybe that's where next weekend comes into play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I appreciate it but I'm pretty modest. Gotta give credit where credit is due. I had an ok basic understanding when I joined eastern in 06. I learned all the hard stuff from the mets and smart regulars. Wes in particular but there's a long list of people I'm thankful for having a chance to learn from. Anybody can do it if they are willing to sacrifice (or willing waste) hundreds if not thousands of hours watching models and figuring it all out. I personally don't recommend doing what I did and continue to do. I have issues but thankfully winter is short so the grip only lasts 3-4 months tops. I might already be on a similar path. Most people here probably have similar issues, but it's good stuff from all of us, imo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro ensembles support the wave pretty well but with a more southern track. Precip jackpot is in central va on the means. Probably a good sign because if it gets too amped up on us it will suck. good look though even with the central va max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nieciez Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 OFG- Another long-time lurker here. I am willing to match your donation and will use LWX for my snow measurement. $10 for every inch of snow from Sunday, 2/2 through Sunday, 2/9. Any other lurker wanna help fund our voyeur obsession? Daily lurker sometime poster....Count me in. I might not have a "set" but I'll go with the measurment at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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