BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It certainly thumps us while dropping out temps. Looks like it starts briefly as rain for some of us. It's tricky around DC since the urban heat island sometimes keeps the temp up longer than forecast. I'm gonna have an interesting article to write tomorrow. We'll all be looking forward to your analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tough storm to forecast because it's all about timing of the initial cold front, and how far apart & strong the follow up wave is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 lol. i just posted it because the information is not available to everyone, didn't go into to much detail as DCA climo is not a strong point of mine. It's allgood, allsnow.....I'll swing by the Jersey forum at some point for some storm analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This has that temperature look to last time we started warm and waited for it to cool off. The Euro again sufficiently cools things along with the rates. My worry is it keeps heading toward the amped direction. We have night going for us this time. Definitely warm during the day but verbatim, euro has DC around 35 @ 1am. Temps will be a problem though. Not discounting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This has that temperature look to last time we started warm and waited for it to cool off. The Euro again sufficiently cools things along with the rates. My worry is it keeps heading toward the amped direction. yep, too strong, too wet (white rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 We have night going for us this time. Definitely warm during the day but verbatim, euro has DC around 35 @ 1am. Temps will be a problem though. Not discounting it. night helps, and +SN helps...1/21 wasn't +SN until mid afternoon and then only for a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This has that temperature look to last time we started warm and waited for it to cool off. The Euro again sufficiently cools things along with the rates. My worry is it keeps heading toward the amped direction. always my concern, especially 3.5-4 days out it's these kinds of storms where NE often cashes in at our expense not being a deb for the sake of being a deb folks, just that it looks soooo fookin' great this far out to this paranoid weenie and I am not worthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a complete 1/26/11-esque moisture bomb 500mb not as good.. also keeps door open for more north probably. I'm not too worried about temps for now.. well, not more worried than normal. An overnight thump with marginal/dropping temps would work ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's allgood, allsnow.....I'll swing by the Jersey forum at some point for some storm analysis Awesome! Look forward to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 night helps, and +SN helps...1/21 wasn't +SN until mid afternoon and then only for a little bit This setup looks pretty good for rates. Not complex like 1/21. Solid wave and single vort riding the boundary. Moisture laden as shown. I would take this run in a second that's for sure. I don't mind starting above freezing considering what happens down the line. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It has us in the low to mid 20s by 12z If it's a night time thing with those temps, we might be ok? We'll probably still waste some QPF on melting...this is DC after all. It's Sunday night now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Jan 21 was progged to temp crash before and during. It took my back yard 3 hours after precip started to hit 32. Right now, i don't trust the models to get both the cold air and warm air correct. Amen brotha. Can't go full in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I can't totally tell when surface drops below freezing but all the way to the bay is sub 32 pretty quick after 1am True but we've seen that before and DCA still lost out on a couple of inches of snow as it stayed 34 well after I dropped to below 32 in mby. Look at the upper level winds, we're in the right entrance region of the jet at 300mb.....for non mets it's the right rear quadrant of the jet streak which favors upward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If it's a night time thing with those temps, we might be ok? We'll probably still waste some QPF on melting...this is DC after all. It's Sunday night now? Looks the EURO is earlier than GFS/CMC...those models argue morning-afternoon...EURO argues overnight-morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 True but we've seen that before and DCA still lost out on a couple of inches of snow as it stayed 34 well after I dropped to below 32 in mby. Look at the upper level winds, we're in the right entrance region of the jet at 300mb.....for non mets it's the right rear quadrant of the jet streak which favors upward motion. is that like the right cheek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If it's a night time thing with those temps, we might be ok? We'll probably still waste some QPF on melting...this is DC after all. It's Sunday night now? Starts around 11pm I think. Doesn't get going good till after 1am. Good thump between then and 7am. Still .20 - .25 before it shuts off before noon. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 night helps, and +SN helps...1/21 wasn't +SN until mid afternoon and then only for a little bit Good post, yes. So, next step is figuring out how it trends from now through then. Does front keep slowing? Notice the northern stream wave on ensembles over Canada continues to trend deeper too. This is why confluence is weaker and storm isn't shredded. But if we keep going that way...you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 thanks...not sure how it works in the central NJ forum, but usually in this forum we do more analysis than simply post snow map output We do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Starts around 11pm I think. Doesn't get going good till after 1am. Good thump between then and 7am. Still .20 - .25 before it shuts off before noon. Wow. That's a day off if it happens. Rooting for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 what maps/link are you guys looking at? the only link I have bookmarked from the past is: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good post, yes. So, next step is figuring out how it trends from now through then. Does front keep slowing? Notice the northern stream wave on ensembles over Canada continues to trend deeper too. This is why confluence is weaker and storm isn't shredded. But if we keep going that way...you know. The front has been slowing for days now. Every run it's slower it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 what maps/link are you guys looking at? the only link I have bookmarked from the past is: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html pay sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro looks mostly frozen for the front end of the next storm. Big cad signal. Snow-sleet-ice-dryslot-rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wednesday is a rainy dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro looks mostly frozen for the front end of the next storm. Big cad signal. Snow-sleet-ice-dryslot-rain Wednesday is a rainy dud Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 WOW, I know this falls into the next storm ,but this is one helluva setup. We actually have confluence, and a LOT more cold air to work with at 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's a day off if it happens. Rooting for the Euro. #wearenoAtlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nice Analysis 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 pay sites Wundermap seems to come out a decent pace for non-subscribers, currently to hr 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wednesday is a rainy dud I was looking at zoomed in panels. backed out and looked at 850's. Yep, rain/ice. 32 line runs the fall line @ 138. Icy for west of 95 verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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