ohleary Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z GFS snow accums only 1-2" in and around DC...north and west, nothing much south and east. this from sampling the accum snow algorithm loaded in AWIPS EDIT: looks a lot like the 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z UKIE super wet... QPF map in a second... 850s are okay at 60 and 72... 1000m temps at DCA at 60 ~34 and ~32 at 72... probably wet snow bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z GFS snow accums only 1-2" in and around DC...north and west, nothing much south and east. this from sampling the accum snow algorithm loaded in AWIPS Really with temps below freezing at surface? Sun angle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's definitely a heavy QPF producer..don't know the thermals on it. GGEM hasn't wavered yet. warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z UKIE super wet... QPF map in a second... 850s are okay at 60 and 72 Super wet means over an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol...the GGEM is like 1.35" for IAD but warm...snow but barely...with sfc above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Based on Ptype map, CMC looks like it would be kinda warm for DC and not the greatest track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z GFS snow accums only 1-2" in and around DC...north and west, nothing much south and east. this from sampling the accum snow algorithm loaded in AWIPS EDIT: looks a lot like the 12Z Euro Does the algorithm take into account antecedent conditions., warm ground etc?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol...the GGEM is like 1.35" for IAD but warm...snow but barely...with sfc above 32 so 1:1 ratio. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ukmet, lol. what the what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ukmet, lol. what the what Thats why I said super wet DCA is prob 34ish at 60... 31/32 at 72... so either super wet snow bomb or super cold rain bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thinking obviously the GEM is too amped, but agrees with me that this one could end up really wet. UKMET is okay on temps which is okay, GGEM is warm. But if IAD gets 1.35 Liq EQ ill be donating. Snow bomb is what it could take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ukmet, lol. what the what yoda model /scroll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol...the GGEM is like 1.35" for IAD but warm...snow but barely...with sfc above 32 I've been dying to use the feb 88 storm for many years. Never made it below 34 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 0z Canadian - 1.20", 2" 12z Canadian - 1", 4-5" 12z Euro - 0.75", 1-2" 21z SREF - 0.55", 2-3" 0z NAM - 0.50", 2-3" 12z Euro ens - 0.45", 2" 0z GFS - 0.40", 3-4" 12z Canadian ensembles - 0.35", 1-2" 18z GEFS - 0.35", 1-2" 12z JMA - 0.35", ? 15z SREF - 0.30", 2" 18z GFS - 0.25" - 1-2" 18z NAM - 0.25", maybe 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I like that track. Milder air not overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 FWIW, Canadian drives the temperature on Sunday well towards 60. Points Manassas and SW break 60. Overdoing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Time for me to start the thread that will bring it home for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 I've been dying to use the feb 88 storm for many years. Never made it below 34 right? Feb 1987 33 at DCA, 32 at IAD IAD was 46 at 3pm...and 46 at 1pm the next day...lol shoveling sucked...we had off of course.....it was sunny and felt like it was 70... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 FWIW, Canadian drives the temperature on Sunday well towards 60. Points Manassas and SW break 60. Overdoing it? probably not.. with MOS where it is, 60ish seems a good bet for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Time for me to start the thread that will bring it home for us?Can't we wait until the Euro...I have a bad feeling about this one...temps are going to fork us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feb 1987 33 at DCA, 32 at IAD IAD was 46 at 3pm...and 46 at 1pm the next day...lol shoveling sucked...we had off of course.....it was sunny and felt like it was 70... It was a shocking sight the next morning. Never seen a paste job like that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Time for me to start the thread that will bring it home for us? Do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can't we wait until the Euro...I have a bad feeling about this one...temps are going to fork us Sure but the purpose i serve is to make things get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 probably not.. with MOS where it is, 60ish seems a good bet for someonegfs has me going from 55-38 in 6 hours sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sure but the purpose i serve is to make things get better.Fine..I am a worry wort weenie anyway...but wetter makes me nervous without blocking high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gfs has me going from 55-38 in 6 hours sunday Interestingly it dropped big time for tomorrow at DCA but it's because it has a south wind.. 44 v 54 at adw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A general 3-6" across the region sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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