DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 72 hours was when the euro jumped on the storm. from then on it looked pretty impressive. Was it that afternoon run where the Euro all of a sudden showed 1.5-2" of QPF and earthlight hand drew his QPF map and everyone was in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Any DC storm where we are already talking about relying on precip rates to help the temps has me thinking we (DCA) don't stand a chance We're looking at a single model run. When the gfs comes out and its ripping 1"+/hr at 31* we won't be talking about it anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 72 hours was when the euro jumped on the storm. from then on it looked pretty impressive. and at 24 hrs, the SREFs looked like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We're looking at a single model run. When the gfs comes out and its ripping 1"+/hr at 31* we won't be talking about it anymore That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 and at 24 hrs, the SREFs looked like this (Matt most certainly did that then) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 (Matt most certainly did that then) we all did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 72 hours was when the euro jumped on the storm. from then on it looked pretty impressive. Yeah, model consensus happened pretty late for 12/09.. The watch didn't go up until Thursday afternoon and it wasn't until after the Friday 0z runs (only 24 hrs before the onset of snow) that there was complete confidence the storm would be widespread and epic throughout the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah, model consensus happened pretty late for 12/09.. The watch didn't go up until Thursday afternoon and it wasn't until after the Friday 0z runs (only 24 hrs before the onset of snow) that there was complete confidence the storm would be widespread and epic throughout the forecast area. That's how I remember it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 we all did! I don't even want to know what rr did. OMG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That's how I remember it too. The CWG archive shows the snap from more unsure discussions to the historic storm forecasts from Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM MOS gets DC to 35 for a low Monday. Pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We're looking at a single model run. When the gfs comes out and its ripping 1"+/hr at 31* we won't be talking about it anymore Everyone locally at least forget the Euro was pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM MOS gets DC to 35 for a low Monday. Pretty solid. MOS has no idea the river is frozen solid. You're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Everyone locally at least forget the Euro was pretty bad. I haven't forgotten and I don't trust the NAM temps as they led us down the path in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The CWG archive shows the snap from more unsure discussions to the historic storm forecasts from Thursday evening. In fact I'm pretty sure that WBAL would not give out any solid accumulation forecasts as late as mid morning on Friday. I guess they still needed to see what the new 12z GFS would show to be more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM MOS gets DC to 35 for a low Monday. Pretty solid. MOS sucks and you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I haven't forgotten and I don't trust the NAM temps as they led us down the path in December. You don't count. You are like a weather wizard. The sfc is so meh I dunno. Maybe if we hadn't busted on similar issues recently.. although even if it works out we might be 40 by afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 MOS sucks and you know it MOS or a blend tends to beat raw outputs in most situations. Raw model temps are usually the worst of all options. Then again NAM MOS has 44 for a high tomorrow which seems rather unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The GFS is gonna be big, it has the same double jet structure as the NAM at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS at 66 looking nice, .25 over all dc and freezing line south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The GFS is gonna be big, it has the same double jet structure as the NAM at 60hrs. Looks like substantially more precip at 66hrs vs 72hrs on the 18z run too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS looks better temp-wise than the NAM. Looks to be about 0.4" or so at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snow should stick below freezing until the euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Soundings at DCA are fine throughout... prob 27 during heaviest rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS Nams us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS Nams us Wait till the nam takes a hold of this at 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wait till the nam takes a hold of this at 12z tomorrow yeah, I wanna see the nam nam us in the classic nam way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The GFS is gonna be big, it has the same double jet structure as the NAM at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Canadian - 1", 4-5" 12z Euro - 0.75", 1-2" 21z SREF - 0.55", 2-3" 0z NAM - 0.50", 2-3" 12z Euro ens - 0.45", 2" 0z GFS - 0.40", 3-4" 12z Canadian ensembles - 0.35", 1-2" 18z GEFS - 0.35", 1-2" 12z JMA - 0.35", ? 15z SREF - 0.30", 2" 18z GFS - 0.25" - 1-2" 18z NAM - 0.25", maybe 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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