Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think a concern at this point would be going too far north if the trend continues over the next 48 hours. Vort track has been fine with most guidance. We just need it juicier. Except for the euro's one burp, we've been good. I highly doubt the vort suddenly tracks above us at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 For Wes, this def. argues for a more northern advancement if that is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The best part is if/when precip gets really going overhead it will be pretty heavy. If surface is going to walk the line we need a pasting. I feel pretty good and have almost expected a wetter solution since the euro/eps first started advertising a few days ago. This type of storm is definitely in the euro's laser. I've been hugging it and not just because it's shown better for us Bob, as a forecaster I don't like seeing it 33 just north of the heaviest precip, that suggests to me where the precip doesn't boom, temps may rise and it might be hard getting snow to accumulate. Plus I've seen DCA not fall that quickly even with pretty decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 For Wes, this def. argues for a more northern advancement if that is right. wes.gif That and the vort track would suggest an expansion to the north. it also explains why the model is forecasting pretty decent qp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bob, as a forecaster I don't like seeing it 33 just north of the heaviest precip, that suggests to me where the precip doesn't boom, temps may rise and it might be hard getting snow to accumulate. Plus I've seen DCA not fall that quickly even with pretty decent rates. As a weenie I hate seeing it too. Less than .25 precip won't get the job done here so just gotta go with the flow and root for rates and pray for temps. Got 48 hours to go and its still not a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bob, as a forecaster I don't like seeing it 33 just north of the heaviest precip, that suggests to me where the precip doesn't boom, temps may rise and it might be hard getting snow to accumulate. Plus I've seen DCA not fall that quickly even with pretty decent rates. Ouch. Wes just brought in a painful dose of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This seems like one of those "the death band is coming" scenarios where the death band never comes, or isn't strong enough to overcome temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Agree with the consensus that best case scenario for us is to see the models go nuts with precip and give us a white pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ouch. Wes just brought in a painful dose of reality. It'll be fun on Monday morning just after sunrise when we're all trying to convince ourselves it still has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It'll be fun on Monday morning just after sunrise when we're all trying to convince ourselves it still has a chance. that seems to be the general way things go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 the 60 hour sounding on the NAM is perfect...29 and ripping...but it is 60 hours away....and it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It'll be fun on Monday morning just after sunrise when we're all trying to convince ourselves it still has a chance. Thankfully I have 3/5 and 12/10 busts plenty fresh on my mind, and now know just how this will bust. Knowing helps. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 the 60 hour sounding on the NAM is perfect...29 and ripping...but it is 60 hours away....and it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thankfully I have 3/5 and 12/10 busts plenty fresh on my mind, and now know just how this will bust. Knowing helps. Sent from my iPhone Late Oct sun angle too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It'll be fun on Monday morning just after sunrise when we're all trying to convince ourselves it still has a chance. I'm just trying to pad totals from here on out. I also bought a refrigerated snow board. I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not worried for the DC area, the N trend will prevail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 the 60 hour sounding on the NAM is perfect...29 and ripping...but it is 60 hours away....and it's the NAM Speaking of 60 hours...4km NAM looks quite similar compared to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Starting to see the north trend, the GFS was really starting to look solid at 18z. We're not too far out either where it will definitely screw DC or anything like that. A slow north movement similar to 1/21 will get the job done better this time. DC will be in near the bullseye QPF-wise in my opinion at game time, which should alleviate the issues with temps (should). NAM looks very respectable at h5 and h3 with the jet for DC, so this very well could be a moisture-laden paste bomb for BWI to DCA on Monday. Think the GFS will look increasingly better tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not worried for the DC area, the N trend will prevail. I can't remember the last storm I wasn't worried about the DC area. Must be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Late Oct sun angle too. More like 2nd week of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 still out its range, but at 48 hrs, the RGEM is moist down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Starting to see the north trend, the GFS was really starting to look solid at 18z. We're not too far out either where it will definitely screw DC or anything like that. A slow north movement similar to 1/21 will get the job done better this time. DC will be in near the bullseye QPF-wise in my opinion at game time, which should alleviate the issues with temps (should). NAM looks very respectable at h5 and h3 with the jet for DC, so this very well could be a moisture-laden paste bomb for BWI to DCA on Monday. Think the GFS will look increasingly better tonight. I think a small north trend may also help us with the rates, but still too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I can't remember the last storm I wasn't worried about the DC area. Must be nice. I think Feb 5th 2010 this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think a small north trend may also help us with the rates, but still too early to tell. Well of course BTR because in the end the rates are deriving from the QPF and the h3 jet structure looks formidable for the good QPF even at this stage to reach DC. Then by Monday, it could be all the way to S PA or around the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Any DC storm where we are already talking about relying on precip rates to help the temps has me thinking we (DCA) don't stand a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think Feb 5th 2010 this far out. Most definitely. Pretty sure watches were up at record long leads at least in terms of headlines. First watch statement for 18+, the only time thats ever happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I can't remember the last storm I wasn't worried about the DC area. Must be nice. Dec 09 wasn't too stressful at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bleh, I know i am in reality, DOA but I can't stop tracking. Filter in that cold air a SMIDGE faster and we can get a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Dec 09 wasn't too stressful at this lead. 72 hours was when the euro jumped on the storm. from then on it looked pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 When I think of storms like this, they can either go one of two ways. We thought 3/6 was heading in 1/26's direction, and that the initial overrunning precip was going to be very impressive. Of course, we know how that turned out. But these QPF bombs of sorts tend to trend even wetter as hr 0 approaches. Combine gulf moisture stream with a SS vort that is not overly weak with the nice jet streaks in place, this could really get moist for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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