mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Based on the 30hr NAM, I'm guessing it will be wetter this run, it's a little faster with the last piece of energy which also may mean we end up warmer than the previous run. Course, it's just a linear mind guess and guessing model behavior is silly. but the 18Z was pretty cold AND pretty far south so there's room to play when comparing it to the 18z NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 comparing 42 hrs to 48 hrs from 18z, the 0-850 line is a hair west of its location at 18z, but not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 comparing 42 hrs to 48 hrs from 18z, the 0-850 line is a hair west of its location at 18z, but not by much I'm not worried about the 850, I'm worried about the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It looks like the NAM only wants to keep us hovering near 50 on Sunday based on raw model output on 2m temps. Hope thats right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not worried about the 850, I'm worried about the surface. What he said. That's what I'm watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not worried about the 850, I'm worried about the surface. I know, but this weenie always figures it ain't gunna snow unless 850 gets to freezing, and then I'll worry about the trip down to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It looks like the NAM only wants to keep us hovering near 50 on Sunday based on raw model output on 2m temps. Hope thats right. it'll depend on cloud cover I'd imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 radar pretty juiced over TX and OK at 42 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 precip maxima in N TN at 54... that looks better for us I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Temps at 54 hours do not look great Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 precip maxima in N TN at 54... that looks better for us I think It's gonna be wetter, the question is temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Precip in DC area at 57 (4am MON)... 850s near 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's gonna be wetter, the question is temps. Finally get 850s at 0 @ 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gosh talk about some juiciness for southern va at 60hr. 850 line literally right on top of me don't know what to think. Heavier rates can overcome sketchy temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looking better at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Precip in DC area at 57 (4am MON)... 850s near 0 Surface is probably near 34 or so then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Finally get 850s at 0 @ 57 see why I worry about 850's first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The column is good from 57 on in the usual spots. But I could be wrong also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 it just needs to come a bit further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 it doubled QPF in one run...nice move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Without looking I'd bet we have another double jet streak look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 it just needs to come a bit further north... Yeah... this run was okay... but pretty much you need to be south of DC for more than an inch I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 it just needs to come a bit further north... probably will by tomorrow at this time considering track records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At 60 it's close Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 it just needs to come a bit further north... I honestly doubt that will be an issue. It's close enough.for now. Dca .5 - .7 at gametime seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I honestly doubt that will be an issue. It's close enough.for now. Dca .5 - .7 at gametime seems reasonable I think it will end up around the same QPF as the Euro before all is said and done even if the NAM ins't there yet. It's vort is looking better each run and is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I honestly doubt that will be an issue. It's close enough.for now. Dca .5 - .7 at gametime seems reasonable I think a concern at this point would be going too far north if the trend continues over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I honestly doubt that will be an issue. It's close enough.for now. Dca .5 - .7 at gametime seems reasonable looks like some front running qpf wasted as rain, which is sort of new; there wasn't that much wasted before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 in terms of models we are actually pretty far away from the event... a lot can happen in 50-60 hours...here is the current guidance for DCA, people can extrapolate for their own backyard,.. from Wettest to Driest, all approximations..QPF, Snowfall 12z Canadian - 1", 4-5" 12z Euro - 0.75", 1-2" 21z SREF - 0.55", 2-3" 0z NAM - 0.50", 2-3" 12z Euro ens - 0.45", 2" 12z Canadian ensembles - 0.35", 1-2" 18z GEFS - 0.35", 1-2" 12z JMA - 0.35", ? 15z SREF - 0.30", 2" 18z GFS - 0.25" - 1-2" 18z NAM - 0.25", maybe 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think it will end up around the same QPF as the Euro before all is said and done even if the NAM ins't there yet. It's vort is looking better each run and is in a good spot. The best part is if/when precip gets really going overhead it will be pretty heavy. If surface is going to walk the line we need a pasting. I feel pretty good and have almost expected a wetter solution since the euro/eps first started advertising a few days ago. This type of storm is definitely in the euro's laser. I've been hugging it and not just because it's shown better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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