Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 it's been an OK winter, feeling dramatically better than the past few for sure, but we've (you, me and the rest of the I95 crowd) have been just a hair away from really cashing in, and that's probably the only thing that I find frustrating I havent seen +SN yet this winter...maybe for 10 minutes...low QPF events are getting tiresome...I want to be bombed with 0.80" in 8-10 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREFs give you that precip bomb Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the SREFs came north. Brings us the precip bomb that Matt wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREFs give you that precip bomb Matt oh sh-it...huge change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREFs give you that precip bomb Matt The spread is ridiculous though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I havent seen +SN yet this winter...maybe for 10 minutes...low QPF events are getting tiresome...I want to be bombed with 0.80" in 8-10 hours i havent seen +SN since 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The spread is ridiculous though Yeah, it'll be interesting to see the plumes when they come out. 0.50 spread on the 24hr map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 in terms of models we are actually pretty far away from the event... a lot can happen in 50-60 hours...here is the current guidance for DCA, people can extrapolate for their own backyard,.. from Wettest to Driest, all approximations..QPF, Snowfall 12z Canadian - 1", 4-5" 12z Euro - 0.75", 1-2" 12z Euro ens - 0.45", 2" 12z Canadian ensembles - 0.35", 1-2" 18z GEFS - 0.35", 1-2" 12z JMA - 0.35", ? 15z SREF - 0.30", 2" 18z GFS - 0.25" - 1-2" 18z NAM - 0.25", maybe 1" 21z SREF - 0.55, 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Where do you get the snow amounts that go with the precip amounts? Are you arbitrarily assuming it is half rain? or are you discounting some outliers? other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 21z SREF - 0.55, 2-3" lol...only in dc can we get .55 in early feb and have it be 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Where do you get the snow amounts that go with the precip amounts? Are you arbitrarily assuming it is half rain? or are you discounting some outliers? other? I think he's joking re: snowfall numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 21z SREF - 0.55, 2-3" We'd lose that much to rain? Or just bad ratios? (or both) Looks like 850s are below 0 and sfc falls below 32 just as the heavy stuff arrives per the SREF. Or are you assuming the models are overdoing the cold and we likely are a few degrees warmer than model guidance (a la March '13 & Dec '13) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Where do you get the snow amounts that go with the precip amounts? Are you arbitrarily assuming it is half rain? or are you discounting some outliers? other? I'm doing my own interpretation of what the model is depicting for MBY which sucks...though I may be a little too conservative What this storm has going for it a bit versus 3/5 and 12/10 is the BL should be much much better...we are mostly going to have to worry about the surface....heavy rates will kill that....once we go below 0 at 850 on any map we are snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think he's joking re: snowfall numbers. I'm not...if we stay in the low 50s on sunday I wont feel as nervous....the BL will be fine this storm...it's the surface I am worried about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 We'd lose that much to rain? Or just bad ratios? (or both) Looks like 850s are below 0 and sfc falls below 32 just as the heavy stuff arrives per the SREF. Or are you assuming the models are overdoing the cold and we likely are a few degrees warmer than model guidance (a la March '13 & Dec '13) we are going to be in better shape than 3/5 and 12/10..I worry about the surface being 35.6 degrees if precip is too light... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not...if we stay in the low 50s on sunday I wont feel as nervous....the BL will be fine this storm...it's the surface I am worried about That's a legit worry, especially after the 1/21 storm where it was 60 the day before. I think we will probably bust high on Sunday so we need heavy rates to compensate...or the cold to get here quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 That's a legit worry, especially after the 1/21 storm. I think we will probably bust high on Sunday so we need heavy rates to compensate...or the cold to get here quicker. I'm assuming we will be 75 degrees on Sunday and when the models have DCA hitting 32 Monday morning, it will be 41..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm assuming we will be 75 degrees on Sunday and when the models have DCA hitting 32 Monday morning, it will be 41..... Lol so true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm assuming we will be 75 degrees on Sunday and when the models have DCA hitting 32 Monday morning, it will be 41..... 12Z Euro has DCA max temp ~10C on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 12Z Euro has DCA max temp ~10C on Sunday GFS mos is 56....I find with DCA, it is best not to take a blend of guidance or to lean toward higher guidance, but rather to take the warmest guidance and add 20-30 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not...if we stay in the low 50s on sunday I wont feel as nervous....the BL will be fine this storm...it's the surface I am worried about that's legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm assuming we will be 75 degrees on Sunday and when the models have DCA hitting 32 Monday morning, it will be 41..... Bullseye Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think I need to quit this hobby for a while. I cant even seem to read maps correctly anymore. My head is spinning. But that might be the IPA's I have been slamming since 5:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is one of those storms where I really appreciate where I live. (For example, temps look to be well above freezing in D.C....I'm a few degrees below the line.) Not trying brag, though...Okay...maybe I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I was worried about temps the day before 1/21. I got up to about 56 and still got 6". With this storm though it will not be near as cold so Sunday does have me worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not...if we stay in the low 50s on sunday I wont feel as nervous....the BL will be fine this storm...it's the surface I am worried about I think we'll be well up in the 50s on Sunday...probably at least as warm as the GFS MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS mos is 56....I find with DCA, it is best not to take a blend of guidance or to lean toward higher guidance, but rather to take the warmest guidance and add 20-30 degrees I shouldn't laugh since its pretty much true. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on DCA hitting 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Based on the 30hr NAM, I'm guessing it will be wetter this run, it's a little faster with the last piece of energy which also may mean we end up warmer than the previous run. Course, it's just a linear mind guess and guessing model behavior is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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