Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i hate this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i hate this hobby Winter cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't see the .4-.5 contour anywhere near Bethesda. Really? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014013118&time=24&var=APCPI&hour=072 The 500 vort track is so close. From Roanoke to the Eastern Shore. At least its south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't see the .4-.5 contour anywhere near Bethesda. I think he's got his cities confused. He can read models. EPS mean has bethesda @ .5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The GFS looks pretty good through hour 66. Plenty cold, maybe to far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i was gonna say...nobody has nothing to say about the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS says don't lose hope yet guys. I'll reel you in now and dash your hopes Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS is a good move. Faster onset and temps good enough. Nailbiter till sunday afternoon i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not bad, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Based on the euro and ensembles, the precip jackpot is going to be somewhere between .5 - .75 give or take. Shows the precip jackpot in central va but also has dc @ .5 on the means. Sucks that the maxima is so small. We really don't have much consensus because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 In a normal setup, GFS would give most of us a 2-3" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 this will be our best snowstorm of Feb 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 this will be our best snowstorm of Feb 2014. we're gonna get raked. I want the euro solution and GFS temsps. not too much to ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 we're gonna get raked. I want the euro solution and GFS temsps. not too much to ask for. 925 temps are pretty darn good at 12z Monday http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_066_925_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 we're gonna get raked. I want the euro solution and GFS temsps. not too much to ask for. i have a feeling we will see some heavy wet snow monday morning. Will look very pretty. Euro wont budge that much but i expect it to maybe be a bit drier and bit colder. Probably a .50 qpf event. Too bad temps are not 13 like they were a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 we're gonna get raked. I want the euro solution and GFS temsps. not too much to ask for. I want the RGEM. Is that too much to ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 still huge differences in euro and american model. A compromise gets us a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling we will see some heavy wet snow monday morning. Will look very pretty. Euro wont budge that much but i expect it to maybe be a bit drier and bit colder. Probably a .50 qpf event. Too bad temps are not 13 like they were a few days ago We never have both moisture and low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling we will see some heavy wet snow monday morning. Will look very pretty. Euro wont budge that much but i expect it to maybe be a bit drier and bit colder. Probably a .50 qpf event. Too bad temps are not 13 like they were a few days ago did you look at the Accwx snow maps for the Euro? it's like 3-4" for me and you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have a feeling we will see some heavy wet snow monday morning. Will look very pretty. Euro wont budge that much but i expect it to maybe be a bit drier and bit colder. Probably a .50 qpf event. Too bad temps are not 13 like they were a few days ago Eh, I'm over temps. I just want to pad totals from here on out. There's going to be a bump north with the precip shield I think. Could be some heavy bands. It's a compact system with some ok lift on the nw side. Could trend stronger for sure. Hard to say. I'm not mad at the gfs right now. Thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Order up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Order up! ive never seen so much pink in my life this winter....... well...maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ive never seen so much pink in my life this winter....... well...maybe In your dreams you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Eh, I'm over temps. I just want to pad totals from here on out. There's going to be a bump north with the precip shield I think. Could be some heavy bands. It's a compact system with some ok lift on the nw side. Could trend stronger for sure. Hard to say. I'm not mad at the gfs right now. Thats for sure. Right now my seasonal total is about 19" which is one inch better than last year. I'm hoping we can at least get to our mean snowfall by March. I know what you mean about the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OT, but, now no one can post pics of the EURO on Facebook in light of the Weatherboy debacle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Think they buy the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OT, but, now no one can post pics of the EURO on Facebook in light of the Weatherboy debacle... weatherboy is getting destroyed on his page...lots of pissed off people. He is a fraud who has like 100k likes from Turkey lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OT, but, now no one can post pics of the EURO on Facebook in light of the Weatherboy debacle... According to who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 weatherboy is getting destroyed on his page...lots of pissed off people. He is a fraud who has like 100k likes from Turkey lol. Went back on his page...I can't even find the box where you can see people's posts to him. Maybe he disabled it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Think they buy the NAM? SOMEWHAT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT RESULT INSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE WITH THE 12Z GFS AS ONE OFFLATTER SOLUTIONS RESULTING IN A MORE SUPPRESSED SURFACE LOWTRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LESS MOISTURE REACHINGWEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR ASTRONGER WAVE...BUT LESS AMPLIFICATION THAN SHOWN BY THE 00ZECMWF. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERENCE OF A BLENDBETWEEN THE FLATTER 12Z GFS AND STRONGER 12Z UKMET WHICH SEEMS TOBE A MOVE IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. STRONGER MODELS LIKE THE 00ZECMWF INDICATE MORE QPF BUT ALSO A WARMER SOLUTION EAST OF THEAPPALACHIANS AND LESS SNOW...WHILE MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS ARECOLDER BUT INDICATE LESS QPF. A MIDDLE GROUND IS EXPECTED BUT NOONE MODEL SOLUTION FAVORS THIS SCENARIO WITH THE 12Z UKMET/CMCMUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF INTO THE CNTRL/NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEEXPECTATION IS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO START OFFAS RA/PL/FZRA MIX BUT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERSIN BEHIND THE WAVE. From -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd (411 PM disco) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.